Masayoshi Son's big bet on OpenAI faces a crucial test

Masayoshi Son shakes hands with Sam Altman of OpenAI (February 2025, Reuters)

From April to December 2025, the net profit of SoftBank Group increased fivefold compared with the same period last year, with a significant contribution from the investment income from OpenAI. OpenAI is seeking huge additional capital injections from investors such as SoftBank Group. Masayoshi Son has a special affection for OpenAI, but the competition in AI development is becoming increasingly fierce...

The consolidated financial report (International Accounting Standards) of SoftBank Group (SBG) for the period from April to December 2025, released on February 12, showed that the net profit reached 3.1726 trillion yen, five times that of the same period last year. The increase in the valuation of its investment in OpenAI in the United States boosted the profit. OpenAI is seeking huge additional capital injections from investors such as SoftBank Group, and Masayoshi Son, the chairman and president of SoftBank Group, is facing a real test of his determination to "fully bet on AI (artificial intelligence)."

SoftBank Group's net profit for the period from April to December reached a record high. The investment income from OpenAI reached 2.7965 trillion yen, making a significant contribution. Through the capital injection in December 2025, SoftBank Group's cumulative investment in OpenAI reached $34.6 billion, making it a major shareholder with an ownership stake of about 11%. The market value of its held assets reached $54.4 billion.

At the SoftBank Group's financial report briefing on February 12, Goto Yoshiaki, the company's chief financial officer (CFO), said, "We highly value the role played by OpenAI."

SoftBank has once again clearly stated that it aims to become the "world's No. 1 platform operator" in the era of artificial superintelligence (ASI) that surpasses human intelligence, and said, "We believe that OpenAI is an important company leading the AI revolution, so we invest in it."

The net asset value (NAV) of SoftBank Group, which is calculated by deducting net interest-bearing liabilities from the value of held stocks, was 30.9 trillion yen at the end of December, a decrease of 2.4 trillion yen from the end of September. According to CFO Goto, as of February 12, the NAV had recovered to 33 trillion yen.

SoftBank Group raised a large amount of funds to finance its investment in OpenAI. From April to December 2025, it raised 2.8 trillion yen through the issuance of corporate bonds and other means, and another 5.5 trillion yen through the sale of NVIDIA stocks and the monetization of held assets such as borrowing against the held stocks.

Even so, OpenAI's funding needs are still not met. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported in December 2025 that OpenAI plans to raise up to $100 billion. Just as SoftBank Group was making every effort to raise funds, OpenAI launched a new round of additional fundraising of about 15 trillion yen.

In addition to SoftBank Group, the targets of OpenAI's fundraising negotiations also include NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon. It is reported that SoftBank Group is negotiating an additional investment of up to $30 billion with OpenAI. CFO Goto said, "There is no specific decision at present."

In fiscal year 2026, SoftBank Group's own funding needs will also soar. The company will face acquisitions worth billions of dollars, such as the robotics business of Swiss industrial giant ABB and the US investment firm DigitalBridge Group. It will also redeem corporate bonds worth 1.0983 trillion yen.

David Gibson, the head of the Japanese business and senior analyst at Australian research firm Sandstone Insights, pointed out, "It is not easy for SoftBank Group to make an additional investment of $30 billion. It can only respond by combining asset sales and borrowing while carefully managing cash flow."

Alternative options include additional borrowing secured by ARM stocks or reducing shareholdings to secure funds. At present, SoftBank Group's total investment in OpenAI has reached $34.6 billion. If an additional $30 billion is invested, it will be equivalent to investing about 10 trillion yen in a single company.

Masayoshi Son's special affection for OpenAI is because he believes that it "will become the most valuable company on earth." According to US media reports, OpenAI is preparing for its initial public offering (IPO) and is expected to go public as early as 2026. Estimated data shows that the company's valuation is $1 trillion, and the valuation of SoftBank's shares (with an ownership stake of 11%) is expected to further increase.

However, the competition in AI development is becoming increasingly fierce. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is expected to make equipment investments of up to $185 billion in 2026, most of which will be used for the development of its self-developed AI "Gemini." The company's free cash flow (FCF) in fiscal year 2025 (ending in December 2025) was $73.2 billion, and it is investing huge advertising revenues in AI.

OpenAI has not yet established a solid profit foundation and still relies on external investment. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported at the end of January that the negotiations regarding NVIDIA's investment plan in OpenAI were at a standstill.

If OpenAI encounters difficulties in financing, it may lag behind in the development competition. As a result, OpenAI's IPO will also be delayed, casting a shadow over SoftBank Group's investment recovery plan.

SoftBank CFO Goto Yoshiaki said regarding the future investment policy, "We will still actively promote various investments in the future." He said that the company's financial policy will not change and also stated, "We will continue to achieve growth while maintaining safety."

This article is from the WeChat official account "Nikkei Chinese Net" (ID: rijingzhongwenwang). The author is Nikkei Chinese Net. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.