How should we view 6G?

This is a question that probes the soul.

As we all know, 5G officially started commercial use in 2019, and six years have passed since then. There are actually significant controversies surrounding 5G.

Many people believe that 5G has been overly hyped. So much investment has been made, but the results are not as good as expected. Some people think that 5G is not as good as 4G, and some still turn off the 5G switch on their phones to save power.

In view of the controversies surrounding 5G, there are also many doubts about the upcoming 6G. There are even extreme views suggesting that 6G should not be developed at all.

In this article today, Xiaozao Jun presents several personal views on 6G for reference:

View 1: It is very necessary to conduct research on 6G technology and make early arrangements for the standards.

The world is currently at a critical stage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. And ICT (Information and Communication) technology is the core of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We cannot achieve digital transformation, industrial upgrading, the development of the digital economy, or the advancement of artificial intelligence without ICT technology.

Essentially, the core of ICT technology is computing (chips) and connection (communication). And 6G represents the frontier of connection technology.

There is a well - known 20 - character summary of China's communication industry - "No participation in 1G, following in 2G, making breakthroughs in 3G, running side by side in 4G, and leading in 5G."

It took China a long time, through long - term hard work and accumulation, to achieve leadership in mobile communication technology. Abandoning further research and investment in this technological field would be self - defeating.

On the surface, 6G is a cellular mobile communication technology. In fact, many of its sub - technologies can also be applied to other wireless communication methods (such as Wi - Fi). Moreover, although 6G is a wireless technology, it is also related to areas such as the transmission network and the core network.

Therefore, maintaining leadership in 6G actually means maintaining leadership in wireless communication and the entire communication field. Making R & D investments in 6G to ensure a leading edge is very important for our country.

The United States lost the competition in 3G and 4G (CDMA, WiMAX) back then. Later, it has been trying to counter - attack through open RAN and AI - RAN, and the threat persists. The same goes for Japan.

In the field of cellular mobile communication, globally, China (represented by Huawei, ZTE, and the three major operators) and Europe (represented by Ericsson and Nokia) are at the forefront and control the discourse power. This situation is beneficial to us and should be maintained as much as possible.

To maintain the advantage, relying solely on technology is not enough; industrial support is also needed. Therefore, it is necessary for the country to make appropriate investments to maintain the survival of the communication industry and eliminate backward production capacity.

This is similar to the cycle law of the chip industry. Providing appropriate support during the trough period of the industry is the key to achieving a breakthrough during the peak period. High - tech industries require continuous investment, and we cannot focus only on short - term interests.

View 2: It is too early to conclude whether 5G has been successful.

Technological development usually requires trial and error. The greatest significance of 5G lies in that it is our initial attempt to introduce the mobile communication network from the consumer Internet to the industrial Internet, and an attempt to transition from the Internet of People to the Internet of Things.

Improving the mobile phone Internet speed is not actually the main purpose of launching 5G. In the consumer Internet field, 4G can indeed meet about 70% of the current needs in terms of technical indicators. Without new applications (such as XR/VR) to support it, the improvements brought by 5G cannot be clearly perceived.

The main purpose of 5G is to open up the blue - ocean market of the industrial Internet. However, the construction and popularization of industrial application scenarios is a long - term process and very difficult. We need to give more time to 5G/5G - A.

From a fatalistic perspective, there has always been a saying in the industry that "odd - numbered generations fail, and even - numbered generations succeed." For example, 1G and 3G failed, while 2G and 4G succeeded. In fact, this also reflects the logic of "attempting new businesses in odd - numbered generations and fully popularizing them in even - numbered generations after maturity." Without the attempts in odd - numbered generations, there would be no success in even - numbered generations.

5G/5G - A has achieved certain results in vertical industry scenarios. The probability of 6G's success is definitely higher than that of 5G/5G - A.

View 3: The main anchor for 6G is AI.

Demand is the core driving force for technological development. Whether a technology can succeed depends mainly on demand.

1G and 2G served human information transmission (calls, text messages). 1G technology was immature, while 2G technology was mature (digital communication replaced analog communication), so 2G succeeded.

3G and 4G served the mobile Internet (O2O, games, videos). The speed of 3G was insufficient, while that of 4G was adequate, so 4G succeeded.

The part of 5G that serves the mobile Internet lacks application demand, so it is not recognized by consumer users. The part that serves the industrial Internet has not been successful yet because it is still in the early exploration stage.

For 6G, apart from the industrial Internet, the greatest demand comes from the AI wave.

Actually, the currently advancing 5G - A is already adapting to the AI wave. Features such as large uplink and differentiated connection all aim to serve AI.

After the rise of AI, it is currently in the stage of popularizing end - side applications. The currently popular AI Agents and embodied intelligence (robots) are all new applications. These applications have higher requirements for network connection speed, latency, security, and reliability. There are huge opportunities for mobile communication in this regard.

Currently, it seems that AI end - side applications are likely to be the next - generation "blockbuster applications" after videos. In the future, the Internet is likely to be the AI Internet, and the network will fully serve AI - related traffic and demands.

Of course, AI is not the only demand driver for 6G. The expansion of communication scenarios, including "space - air - ground - sea integration" and communication - sensing integration, is also an important driving force for the development of 6G.

View 4: The way of network evolution and upgrading may change.

In recent decades, mobile communication technology has been updated every ten years. This has become an established rule in the industry.

However, Xiaozao Jun personally believes that this rule is likely to be broken. The ten - year network upgrade cycle is based on demand. If new demands emerge suddenly, this cycle can be shortened. If new demands are slow to arrive, the cycle can be extended.

Upgrading the network every ten years means making another huge investment (in the trillions). Of course, this is a good thing for the communication industry. However, it may not be the case for society, the country, and users.

The construction cost of the communication network is ultimately borne by users. Frequent overall network upgrades will also bring huge cost and operation and maintenance pressure to operators.

The upgrade of 6G should maintain a reasonable pace and adopt appropriate solutions. For example, start with covering hot - spot areas instead of replacing the entire network. Upgrade and conduct pilot projects in scenarios with demand first. The popularization of 5G - A has already adopted this approach.

In China, we often mention "moderately advanced construction." It means building some infrastructure for new technologies first and then using this infrastructure to incubate applications. This is indeed more cost - effective.

China now has 4.838 million 5G base stations, accounting for more than 60% of the world's total. While these figures bring glory and pride, we also need to pay attention to the costs and returns behind them. The most important thing is to fully extract the value of the 5G network investment and let 5G play a greater role in the development of users, operators, and society.

View 5: 6G faces many challenges, and the future may not be smooth.

As Xiaozao Jun mentioned earlier, China has an advantage in mobile communication standards.

But we can't let our guard down. Currently, there are still some challenges and risks in promoting the development of 6G.

First, there is the issue of technological risk.

From a technological perspective, it has been difficult to find a breakthrough point in the basic theory of mobile communication technology, and the spectrum efficiency is approaching the Shannon limit. It is very difficult to achieve the visionary goals of 6G. Simply increasing the speed through the 6GHz and terahertz frequency bands will pose some problems in terms of coverage and cost.

The physical propagation limitations of new frequency bands and the maturity of devices (industrial ecosystem) are issues that deserve our attention.

6G has proposed new technological directions such as RIS, holographic wireless, and orbital angular momentum, but their feasibility and commercial viability need further verification.

6G plans to introduce AI natively, which is indeed a way to improve the performance of the network itself. But we also need to consider whether it will introduce some reliability issues (due to the non - interpretability of AI model decisions), latency issues, and energy consumption issues. Is the cost worth it?

There is also a very important security issue in 6G that cannot be ignored.

Second, there is the issue of standard compatibility and compromise.

6G is a unified standard. However, with any unified standard, there is compromise. Since the interests and demands of all parties need to be balanced, a unified standard is often not the most efficient solution.

A unified standard lacks extreme adaptation and innovation. Moreover, since large manufacturers have more say, the interests of small manufacturers are easily compromised. Some technological innovations are also easily overlooked or stifled.

Third, there is the issue of standard fragmentation.

In the current geopolitical environment, there is a risk of standard fragmentation for 6G. That is to say, the United States, Japan, and South Korea may develop new technological systems. A situation similar to that of 3GPP2 and WiMAX back then is likely to occur.

The development of open RAN and AI - RAN in recent years is also based on this logic. The United States will use its advantages in cloud and AI to launch a new impact on the traditional communication field.

Communication is a huge market, and the competition for interests behind it will continue for a long time. Competitors will not sit idly by while China maintains its dominant position in this field for a long time.

In summary, we should always remain rational about 6G.

On the one hand, we should learn from some of the lessons of the 5G era, avoid excessive publicity, and refrain from false hype.

On the other hand, we should rationally evaluate the feasibility and commercial value of new technologies and conduct full verification through practice.

Third, we should adhere to innovation and protect the interests of small and medium - sized enterprises. Avoid turning technology standard organizations into a "world" of technical monopolies characterized by inefficiency and infighting.

Fourth, we should be cautious about standard fragmentation and beware of the disruptive "killer weapons" of competitors (such as Starlink and new RAN).

Fifth, since 6G is still in its early stage and the technology selection is not yet clear, there are significant investment risks.

6G is a long - term game. Although we currently have an advantage, we cannot relax. To maintain long - term leadership, we still need to keep innovating and investing.

Facing the AI wave, the entire communication industry should pay full attention. By using 5G - A/6G as a starting point and participating in this revolutionary wave, there is an opportunity to achieve profit growth, industrial upgrading, and strategic transformation.

This article is from the WeChat public account “Fresh Date Classroom” (ID: xzclasscom). Author: Xiaozao Jun. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.