In 2025, the growth rate of the Chinese auto market exceeded 9%, and it is expected to slow down to 1% in 2026.
On January 14, 2026, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM") released the latest data showing that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. China has ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years in automobile production and sales, and its new energy vehicles have ranked first in the world for 11 consecutive years.
This achievement far exceeded the policy expectations. In September 2025, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Automobile Industry (2025 - 2026)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Stable Growth Plan"), setting an annual target of about 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, with a year - on - year increase of about 3%. The actual market performance showed that the final sales not only met the target but also exceeded it by about 2.1 million vehicles, with a growth rate of 9.4%, significantly higher than expected.
Chen Shihua, the deputy secretary - general of CAAM, said that this was due to the intensification and expansion of the "two new" policies (large - scale equipment renewal and trade - in of consumer goods) and their smooth connection, as well as the intensive launch of new products by enterprises and the continuous release of terminal demand.
Specifically, China's passenger vehicle market grew steadily, exceeding 30 million vehicles. The commercial vehicle market significantly recovered, with year - on - year increases in production and sales of over 10%, and the scale returned to over 4 million vehicles. New energy vehicles achieved a historic leap, with production and sales exceeding 16 million vehicles. The proportion of new energy vehicles in domestic new vehicle sales exceeded 50%, becoming the dominant force in the development of the Chinese automobile market. The annual export volume of automobiles exceeded 7 million vehicles, among which 2.615 million new energy vehicles were exported, with a year - on - year increase of about double, becoming the core engine of growth.
End of 2025: Multiple indicators exceeded expectations
"In 2025, the automobile industry withstood external pressures such as trade protection and the restructuring of the global industrial chain, overcame multiple challenges such as technological breakthroughs and intense competition within the industry, and demonstrated strong development resilience and vitality. It achieved a double improvement in industrial scale and development quality. The production and sales of automobiles have remained above 30 million vehicles for three consecutive years," Chen Shihua pointed out.
China's automobile sales and growth rate in the past decade
Among them, the "trade - in" policy had a significant stimulating effect on automobile consumption, especially green consumption. Sheng Qiuping, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a press conference on January 6 that from 2024 to 2025, a total of 18.3 million vehicles were traded in across the country, among which nearly 60% were new energy vehicles.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to climb. In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 16.626 million and 16.49 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of nearly 30%. The market penetration rate reached 47.9%, far exceeding the expected target of 15.5 million vehicles in the "Stable Growth Plan".
New energy vehicle sales and growth rate in the past decade
Notably, in December alone, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales reached 52.3%. Taking advantage of this opportunity, Chinese - brand passenger vehicles saw their annual market share climb to 69.5%, with sales increasing by 16.5% year - on - year to 20.936 million vehicles.
In 2025, China's automobile export scale reached a new level, with the annual export volume reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. Among them, the export performance of new energy vehicles was particularly outstanding, with 2.615 million vehicles exported throughout the year, achieving a double - digit growth year - on - year and becoming the primary contributor to the growth of the total export volume.
Meanwhile, enterprises' internationalization strategies showed a differentiated pattern. Chery, BYD, and SAIC ranked among the top three in terms of export volume. Among them, BYD's export volume soared 1.4 times year - on - year to 1.054 million vehicles. The model of combining vehicle exports with local production overseas is helping the Chinese automobile industry to deeply integrate into the global market.
Top ten automobile enterprises in export volume in 2025
In addition to the stable performance of passenger vehicles, the recovery of the commercial vehicle market was a highlight of the 2025 automobile market. Throughout 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles returned to over 4 million vehicles, reaching 4.261 million and 4.296 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of over 10%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles reached 871,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 63.7%, and the penetration rate rapidly increased. In the truck market, especially the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks increased by 27% year - on - year, reflecting the active logistics demand of the real economy.
Growth rate of commercial vehicles in 2025
Entering a high - level stable period in 2026, with an expected growth rate of 1%
Based on a comprehensive assessment of macro - policies, industry governance, and the international market, CAAM made a forecast for the 2026 automobile market: the total annual automobile sales are expected to be 34.75 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of about 1%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 19 million vehicles, and the penetration rate will continue to increase. The automobile export volume is expected to be 7.4 million vehicles, maintaining the global leading position.
Forecast of the 2026 automobile market
In terms of favorable factors, macro - policies will continue the tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and focusing on domestic demand". The "Stable Growth Plan" will be implemented, and the "two new" policies will be smoothly connected. Industry governance will become more standardized, and price compliance guidelines are expected to guide competition from "intense competition" to value and service. In the international market, China's leading electric vehicle technology, improved product strength, and strong supply chain resilience will enable enterprises to actively explore overseas markets and continuously release growth potential.
Meanwhile, the industry also faces multiple challenges. The international situation is complex and severe. Global geopolitical uncertainties, economic downturn, and intensified trade struggles, combined with the replacement of pure exports by local production, may lead to a slowdown in export growth. In the domestic market, the growth of non - policy demand is weak. Economic downward pressure, unstable expectations of residents' income, and employment pressure restrict consumption ability. At the policy level, the marginal effect of the "two new" policies is decreasing, and the adjustment of the "halved purchase tax + technological restrictions" for new energy vehicles will also have a certain impact.
Overall, the Chinese automobile market is expected to enter a stable operation period of slight growth on a high - level platform in 2026. The association emphasized that during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the focus of the industry's development will shift from pursuing rapid scale growth to comprehensively improving development quality, including technological innovation, brand upgrading, benefit improvement, and deepening of global operation capabilities.
(Photo source: CAAM)
This article is from the WeChat official account "Financial Automobile". Authors: Wang Xin, Zhao Cheng. Republished by 36Kr with permission.