Mercedes-Benz and BMW's Forecasted Sales in 2026 Fall Short of 500,000 Units, Reverting to Levels a Decade Ago | Exclusive from 36Kr

In the Chinese high - end car market in 2026, domestic brands are full of confidence, while German brands remain calm.

36Kr has learned from multiple sources that Mercedes - Benz and BMW have recently provided preliminary demand forecasts for 2026 to their domestic supply chains. Multiple insiders told 36Kr that the annual estimated production volume of their domestic models is less than 500,000 vehicles each, almost returning to their sales levels in China a decade ago.

In contrast, the sales targets of Chinese high - end brands are more aggressive: NIO aims for a 40 - 50% growth, with an estimated sales volume of about 460,000 vehicles; Xiaomi Auto targets 550,000 vehicles, a 34% year - on - year increase; and Hongmeng Zhixing has set a target of 1 - 1.3 million vehicles, with an expected growth rate of 120%.

Behind this high - paced development, domestic brands have achieved remarkable results in high - end transformation in the past year.

After the facelift of the NIO ES8, its monthly sales reached 22,000 vehicles in December; the annual sales of the Wenjie M8 and M9 under Hongmeng Zhixing both exceeded 100,000 vehicles, and the Zunjie S800, with a starting price of 708,000 yuan, had over 4,000 deliveries in December.

Benefiting from the sales boost effect and the considerable new car plans for 2026, domestic brands have given more positive market sales expectations.

German luxury brands have a more sober attitude towards the market environment.

In 2025, Mercedes - Benz delivered 551,900 vehicles in China, a 19% year - on - year decline, and BMW sold 625,500 vehicles, a 12.5% year - on - year decline. The sales of both companies in China have declined by over 10% for two consecutive years.

In 2026, Mercedes - Benz will launch 15 facelifted and new models, including the long - wheelbase all - electric GLC and the domestically produced GLE for the first time. BMW will also enter the market with the new - generation iX3 and over 20 other new models.

Despite the rich lineup of new models from both companies, they still have a clear understanding of the competitive landscape in the Chinese automotive market.

BBA still relies on fuel - powered vehicles as its core business, while domestic brands attack the high - end market with electrification

In 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the Chinese automotive market exceeded the 50% mark, and the monthly penetration rate in December reached 59.1%. The industry predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to rise in 2026, exceeding 60%. This means that the Chinese automotive market is about to enter an era dominated by new energy vehicles.

The electrification transformation of traditional luxury brands such as Mercedes - Benz and BMW has not been ideal.

In 2025, Mercedes - Benz launched its new - generation all - electric model, the CLA. The new car embodies Mercedes - Benz's exploration of electrification technology in the past few years, with a comprehensive range of over 860 km and is equipped with an assisted driving system jointly developed by Mercedes - Benz and the Chinese company Momenta. The new car started pre - orders in September and was officially launched in November, but the total sales from November to December were 1,369 vehicles.

Throughout the year, the three main fuel - powered models, the E - Class, C - Class, and GLC, still accounted for nearly 70% of Mercedes - Benz's sales in China, and the sales of all - electric models were less than 5%. The highly anticipated electrification has not yet become a new growth engine for Mercedes - Benz in China.

In contrast, the sales of BMW's all - electric models in China in 2025 were more optimistic, reaching 53,000 vehicles, but their proportion in the total brand sales was also less than 10%. Behind the sales figures, the transaction price of the BMW i3 once dropped from the guide price of 353,900 yuan to less than 200,000 yuan, which inevitably affected the brand premium and profitability.

In addition, the high - end luxury market, where Mercedes - Benz and BMW are dominant, is now facing a fierce offensive from domestic brands.

In 2025, Zunjie, another luxury brand under Hongmeng Zhixing, launched an attack on the luxury market with the Zunjie S800, priced from 708,000 to 1.018 million yuan. From August to December, its cumulative sales reached 11,000 vehicles, and the monthly deliveries in December exceeded 4,000 vehicles, exceeding the total sales of similar models of traditional fuel - powered luxury brands.

In the 500,000 - yuan price range, the Wenjie M9 has ranked first for two consecutive years with sales of over 100,000 vehicles; the newly launched Wenjie M8 in April, with sales of over 150,000 vehicles, has outperformed competitors such as the Mercedes - Benz GLC and BMW X3 in the 350,000 - 450,000 - yuan market.

German luxury brands are facing the dual challenges of difficult electrification transformation and a loosening core business of fuel - powered vehicles.

New car offensive in 2026: BMW's new - generation models debut for the first time, and Mercedes - Benz continues to focus on luxury cars

Recently, both Mercedes - Benz and BMW have announced their product offensives for the new year.

In 2026, Mercedes - Benz will launch over 15 new and facelifted models, including the all - electric long - wheelbase GLC SUV, the long - wheelbase GLE SUV produced domestically for the first time, and the new - generation S - Class.

BMW will bring over 20 new models, and the most important one is the first model of the new generation: the long - wheelbase iX3. BMW's second exploration of electrification is about to face a major test.

Facing the severe market situation, Mercedes - Benz and BMW are trying to reverse the situation through a dense product offensive. However, whether this self - rescue operation can succeed still faces many challenges, and the competition in the Chinese automotive market is also intensifying.

In terms of technology, Xiaomi Auto has announced some data of the facelifted SU7 in 2026. The Pro version can achieve a range of 902 km under CLTC conditions, breaking the record for mid - to large - sized all - electric sedans; brands such as Leapmotor have increased the pure - electric range of extended - range models to 500 km. In the field of electrification, the competition related to range has become increasingly fierce.

In the field of intelligent driving, many companies have started L3 - level autonomous driving tests. The latest chip installed in the new 2026 models of XPeng already supports the ability of preliminary L4 - level autonomous driving. The competition of AI capabilities centered on the world model will become the focus of competition in 2026.

In terms of products, the Zunjie brand, which targets the luxury market together with BBA, will launch 6 new models in 2026, including SUVs and MPVs, trying to further seize the luxury market occupied by BBA.

Simply relying on price cuts or the sporadic launch of electric models for tactical adjustments is no longer sufficient to cope with the systematic impact launched by domestic high - end brands in multiple dimensions such as products, technology, and brand. BBA is experiencing a brutal battle for market share.