The main investment themes in the pharmaceutical sector for 2026 have emerged.
In the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody track, a capital drama of extreme contrasts has been staged recently: Yimingangke's PD-L1/VEGF bispecific antibody was returned by its partner Axion, and the expected value of the pipeline was frustrated. On the other hand, Rongchang Biotech won a licensing deal worth a total of $5.6 billion from AbbVie with its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody RC148. This contrast not only reflects the intensifying differentiation in the bispecific antibody track but also quietly outlines the core theme of pharmaceutical investment in 2026 - certainty.
Looking back at 2025, the wave of "BD is king" swept across the Chinese pharmaceutical investment market. At that time, out-licensing transactions of innovative drug companies became the core logic pursued by capital. In essence, it was the market's ultimate release of the future value of innovative pipelines. Amid the capital frenzy, the quantity and amount of BD transactions were regarded as the core yardsticks for measuring a company's value, often overlooking the underlying supports such as the clinical potential and commercialization feasibility of the pipelines themselves.
However, high expectations will eventually come down to earth. When the enthusiastic capital returns to rationality, the market's valuation logic for BD transactions begins to be re - constructed. It is no longer the blind following of "speculating on every licensing deal" but has shifted to a in - depth review of the deal's ability to be realized. There will surely be a significant differentiation in valuation levels between BD collaborations that can translate into clinical progress and have commercialization potential and licensing projects that lack data support and only stay at the conceptual stage.
This change directly points to the core essence of pharmaceutical investment in 2026: bid farewell to the generalized track speculation and embrace the certain value of "excellence in the general middle". The so - called "certainty" is not a single - dimensional judgment criterion but three core anchor points that run through the entire cycle of innovative drug R & D and commercialization: expected certainty, product certainty, and performance certainty.
(1) Expected Certainty
The core of expected certainty is to abandon the blind pursuit of the total amount of BD transactions and rationally judge the feasibility of their final implementation. From the underlying laws of the industry, the probability of a global new drug advancing from early - stage clinical trials to final market launch is only 7.9%. Moreover, there is a huge gap between "market launch" and "commercial success". Even if a drug is successfully approved, it still needs to face multiple challenges such as competition from similar products and market access barriers. This means that the high - expected value of most BD transactions will ultimately be difficult to fully realize.
Take the currently hottest PD - 1/VEGF bispecific antibody track as an example. Kangfang Biotech, 3SBio, and Rongchang Biotech have respectively reached overseas licensing agreements with a total amount of $5 billion, $6.05 billion, and $5.6 billion. In an ideal vacuum environment, such transaction scales may have some room for imagination. However, in reality, these three companies are in the same competitive track, with highly overlapping targets and indications. Ultimately, it is impossible for all players to achieve the expected value realization. This scenario is similar to the frenzy and differentiation of PD - 1 monoclonal antibody out - licensing BD deals back then.
For investors, to penetrate the BD valuation bubble, they need to grasp three core judgment criteria: first, look at the proportion of the upfront payment (the upfront payment is the only almost 100% certain income. The higher the proportion, the stronger the short - term certainty); second, look at the strength of the partner (cooperating with global top pharmaceutical companies such as AbbVie provides more guarantees in clinical advancement, regulatory communication, and commercialization capabilities, significantly increasing the probability of achieving milestones); third, look at the competitive landscape of the track (if there has been a successful BD case for the same target, subsequent followers need to appropriately lower their expectations to avoid over - valuation).
(2) Product Certainty
The core of product certainty is to judge whether the pipeline can achieve substantial sales growth after market launch. The ultimate value of a drug lies in commercial realization. Products with a clear sales growth logic should receive a higher valuation premium, while products with questionable sales growth logic need to be wary of the risk of valuation correction.
The most representative product with certain sales growth in 2026 is Wantai Biotech's nine - valent HPV vaccine Xinkening® 9. This product has not only proven to be equivalent to imported vaccines through head - to - head trials but also, with a pricing of 499 yuan per dose (only 40% of the price of imported vaccines), it has broken the long - standing "high - end" perception of imported vaccines, laying the foundation for penetration into the sinking markets in third - and fourth - tier cities and below. The huge unmet demand in the sinking markets is expected to drive the expansion of the overall nine - valent HPV vaccine market. As the core player in the domestic nine - valent HPV vaccine market, Wantai Biotech will most likely enter a period of rapid sales growth starting from 2026 after achieving domestic substitution.
In contrast, IBI's Mazdutide has significantly weaker commercialization certainty. Although Mazdutide defeated Semaglutide in head - to - head trials, the market competitive landscape has undergone a fundamental change. Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide has become the core competitor. More fatally, a price war between Tirzepatide and Semaglutide has fully erupted, directly squeezing Mazdutide's pricing space and market share, significantly reducing its expected peak sales, and greatly shrinking the product's commercialization value.
(3) Performance Certainty
The core of performance certainty is to find companies and tracks with obvious expectations of performance growth or recovery. The essence of investment is to capture the expected difference. Under the wave of "BD is king" in 2025, the innovative drug track attracted the attention of most capital, while sub - sectors such as medical devices, CXO, and vaccines were undervalued by the market. Among them, targets with performance growth support are expected to see a valuation repair in 2026.
The performance pre - increase announcement of CXO leader WuXi AppTec is a typical example of performance certainty. On January 12, the company announced that its net profit in 2025 was 14.957 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.33%. While achieving steady revenue growth, it also achieved high - profit growth, which not only confirms the cornerstone position of China's CXO leader in the global pharmaceutical industry chain but also gradually reverses the undervaluation caused by geopolitical factors in the past two years. As the R & D investment of global pharmaceutical companies recovers, the performance growth certainty of CXO leaders with full - industry - chain capabilities is further enhanced.
There are also significant expected difference opportunities in the vaccine industry. After the previous industry involution and inventory reduction on the demand side, the performance of domestic vaccine companies has reached the bottom. From a long - term perspective, the Chinese vaccine industry is still in its early stage of development, with broad space for domestic substitution and the overseas market expansion is also in its infancy, having great growth potential. The vaccine sector, whose valuation has reached the bottom, is gradually increasing in performance recovery certainty, and the investment opportunities far outweigh the risks.
In summary, shifting from the capital game of "selling BD expectations" to the achievement of "realizing certainty" is the logic of the shift in pharmaceutical investment style in 2026 that we believe.
This article is written based on public information and is only for information exchange purposes and does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Medical Shine", author: Pharmacist Lin. Republished by 36Kr with permission.