Competing for space resources, who is the "Chinese version of SpaceX"?
Driven by numerous favorable factors, the commercial space sector of A-shares has witnessed an explosive rise.
Since 2026, the commercial space sector has led the gains in the secondary industries of Shenwan. As of January 12, 2026, the aerospace equipment II index of Shenwan's secondary industries continued to top all Shenwan secondary industries with a year-to-date increase of 37.01%.
On January 12, 2026, the commercial space sector saw another wave of limit-up stocks. Wind data shows that the commercial space index rose 8.45%, and the aerospace equipment II sector of Shenwan's secondary industries rose 10.06%. Many stocks in the sector rose more than 10%. Stocks such as Tianyin Electric (300342.SZ), Guangha Communication (300711.SZ), Huali Creation (300045.SZ), and Blitec (688333.SH) rose 20%. More than 20 stocks, including China Satcom (600118.SH), China Satellite Communications (601698.SH), Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH), Beidou Starcom (002151.SZ), Tongyu Communications (002792.SZ), Aerospace Hongtu (688066.SH), and Sunway Communication (300136.SZ), rose 10% or more.
Among them, the market value of leading stock China Satcom exceeded 137.9 billion yuan, hitting a new historical high. Aerospace Electronics had four limit-up boards in the past four trading days, and Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ), which rose due to its investment in Landspace, even had five consecutive limit-up boards. In terms of trading volume, the full-day trading volume of Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) reached 22.222 billion yuan, ranking second in A-shares, only after BlueFocus (300058.SZ).
Meanwhile, ETFs related to commercial space also exploded collectively, with many products hitting the limit-up. The Satellite Industry ETF (159218), Satellite ETF (159206), GF Satellite ETF (512630), and General Aviation ETF Fund (561660) all recorded a 10% limit-up. The one-day net inflow of the Satellite Industry ETF exceeded 500 million yuan, a new historical high. The total scale of satellite-themed ETFs and linked funds in the entire market has exceeded 23.7 billion yuan.
The core driver of this round of market is the frequency and orbital resource layout at the national strategic level. According to the news, on January 10, the official website of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) showed that from December 25 to 31, 2025, China officially submitted an application to the ITU for the frequency and orbital resources of 203,000 new satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations, including medium and low-orbit satellites. More than 190,000 of these satellites are from the recently established Radio Innovation Institute. It is understood that this is China's largest international frequency and orbital centralized application action to date, indicating that the application for satellite frequency and orbital resources has risen to the national strategic level, accelerating the catch-up of the commercial space industry with SpaceX.
Internationally, SpaceX is also accelerating the deployment of Starlink satellites. On January 9 local time, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced that it had approved SpaceX's application to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, which will bring the total number of SpaceX's satellites in orbit globally to 15,000.
Kaiyuan Securities said that in 2026, China's commercial space industry is expected to see a triple resonance of "policy + technology + capital", which is highly anticipated. Empowered by policy support and breakthroughs in core technologies such as large-scale satellite manufacturing and reusable rockets, the industry has entered a period of rapid development. The revenues of leading enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have increased steadily, and they have sufficient order reserves, with broad long-term growth prospects.
01
Why the sharp rise?
The sharp rise of the commercial space sector in this round started in November 2025. Wind data shows that from November 24 to December 31, 2025, the aerospace equipment II index doubled in just 28 trading days, rising from 17,852 points to 35,222 points. This made the aerospace equipment II index jump to the top of all Shenwan secondary industry indices in 2025 with an annual increase of 146%.
Entering 2026, the upward trend of the commercial space sector continued. As of January 12, 2026, the aerospace equipment II index continued to top all Shenwan secondary industries with a year-to-date increase of 37.01%.
Different from traditional aerospace projects led by the state, commercial space refers to aerospace activities that are market-oriented and have a commercial profit model, covering areas such as satellite manufacturing, rocket launch, and satellite application. Since SpaceX first achieved the recovery of the first-stage rocket in 2015, the previously single-use launch rockets can now be recovered and reused, greatly reducing the unit cost of rocket launch and enabling traditional aerospace projects to enter the era of profitable commercial space.
The most important current use of commercial space is to launch satellites. Since the Earth's low Earth orbit is estimated to accommodate only about 60,000 satellites, it means that the number of low-orbit satellites that can be accommodated is limited. The basic principle of the International Telecommunication Union is "first come, first served", that is, those who apply and successfully launch first have priority in using orbits and frequencies. This has also prompted countries to accelerate their layout and seize low-orbit satellite resources.
Currently, since SpaceX has mastered the technology of reusable launch rockets, the unit cost of its launches has been significantly reduced. Currently, it leads the world in the number of rocket launches and the number of low-orbit satellites. Data shows that as of the end of 2025, SpaceX had completed more than 300 launches of Falcon 9 rockets in total, and the total number of launches in 2025 reached about 170, a new historical high. Among them, there were 165 Falcon 9 launches and 5 Starship launches. SpaceX's Starlink launched a total of 338 satellites in December 2025, accounting for nearly 70% of the total global launches in that month. Currently, there are more than 9,300 Starlink satellites in orbit, and the number of Starlink users has also increased exponentially. Currently, the number of global users has exceeded 9 million.
This has prompted China to step up research and development of reusable rocket technology breakthroughs and the development of the commercial space industry. The commercial space sector has also witnessed a historical explosion under the triple resonance of policy, technology, and capital.
At the policy level, in November 2025, the National Space Administration officially established the Commercial Space Department, which is the first national-level full-time regulatory agency for China's commercial space industry. In the same month, the National Space Administration issued the Action Plan for Promoting the High-quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027), incorporating commercial space into the overall layout of the country's aerospace development.
At the technical level, on December 3, 2025, Landspace's Zhuque-3 reusable carrier rocket successfully achieved second-stage orbit insertion, completing the verification of the first domestic first-stage vertical recovery technology and becoming China's first reusable carrier rocket to be launched and successfully enter orbit. On December 23, 2025, the Long March 12A of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation successfully achieved second-stage orbit insertion. As the first reusable rocket of the "national team" in commercial space, it verified a new technical route. Although the first-stage recovery of both launches was not completely successful, valuable progress was made in achieving reusable rockets.
At the capital level, on December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Standards for Commercial Rocket Enterprises to Apply the Fifth Set of Listing Standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, pointing out a clear path for commercial space enterprises to sprint for the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Guided by the new regulations, on December 31, Landspace's IPO application on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted, becoming the first enterprise to be accepted after the expansion of the fifth set of standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board to the commercial space field, and sprinting for the "first commercial space stock" on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
The company plans to issue no less than 40 million shares and raise 7.5 billion yuan, of which 2.77 billion yuan will be used to improve the production capacity of reusable rockets, and 4.73 billion yuan will be invested in technology research and development.
"The new regulations for the listing of commercial space enterprises require that commercial rocket enterprises achieve at least the phased result of the first successful orbit insertion of the payload of a medium or large-scale carrier rocket using reusable technology when applying. This allows commercial rocket enterprises that have not yet made a profit to be listed based on technological milestones rather than financial indicators. This policy precisely solves the financing bottleneck of commercial rocket enterprises, which have a long R & D cycle, large capital requirements, and difficulty in making a profit in the early stage, and guides capital to be invested in core technology research and development." Lin Yankun, the founder of X GROUP (Deju Investment), which invested in Landspace in 2020, analyzed to Caijing.
02
Can the upward trend continue?
Driven by multiple favorable factors, the A-share commercial space sector has risen sharply, pushing the sector to the top of the list of increases in 2026. Securities firms generally regard 2026 as the "Year of China's Commercial Space". It is expected that breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the networking of low-orbit satellites will push the industry from the policy incubation period to large-scale implementation, and the long-nurtured "space economy" market may reach trillions of yuan in scale.
A research report from CSC Financial believes that currently, the global aerospace field is undergoing a profound paradigm shift, with the core feature being the acceleration of the privatization process. The aerospace field is evolving from being dominated by national aerospace agencies to a new pattern of "national strategic exploration and market-driven commercial applications". With the support of national policies and breakthroughs in industrial technology, China's commercial space industry is expected to enter a new era.
Dongwu Securities believes that the commercial space industry is on the verge of an explosion from 0 to 1. Instead of struggling to select stocks, it is better to grasp the beta of the track. It is recommended to "evenly allocate" the entire industrial chain to not miss any opportunities.
Meanwhile, due to the rapid rise in the stock prices of the commercial space sector, many investors have missed out on opportunities. "We are optimistic about the opportunities in the commercial space sector, but the stock prices have risen too fast, and we have never found a suitable opportunity to build a position. Moreover, most of the current situation is in the stage of concept speculation, and stock selection is also a problem. In the commercial space market, the bolder investors make more money, and we are also very anxious." A private fund manager in Beijing told Caijing.
However, from the perspective of performance, the commercial space sector is still in the stage of technological breakthroughs and expectations for future imagination space, and most companies have not yet started to release performance. Currently, among the popular companies in the commercial space sector, many are still in the loss stage. The third-quarter report of Aerospace Development in 2025 showed that the company had a loss of 489 million yuan in the first three quarters, and it has been in continuous losses since 2023. At the same time, with the sharp rise in stock prices, the price-earnings ratios of many companies have reached hundreds or even thousands of times. China Satcom's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2025 was only 15 million yuan. Based on the current market value of 137.95 billion yuan, the price-earnings ratio (TTM) reached 2,400 times, and the price-earnings ratio of China Satellite Communications also reached 877 times.
Meanwhile, many listed companies in the commercial space sector have recently issued announcements on abnormal stock price fluctuations and risk warnings. On January 13, 2026, China Satellite Communications issued an announcement on abnormal fluctuations in stock trading. The company's fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the recent stock price has deviated from the company's fundamentals, and investors face great risks when participating in trading. It also mentioned that the "hot potato" effect of the company's stock is very obvious, and there is a risk of a short-term sharp decline.
It is worth noting that there has also been a situation of shareholder reduction among commercial space concept stocks recently. Goldwind Science & Technology, which holds 4.14% of the equity of Landspace, had five consecutive limit-up boards in the past five trading days. On January 10, 2026, Goldwind Science & Technology issued a pre-disclosure announcement of shareholder reduction. Shareholder Xinjiang Energy plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1.0356 million shares within three months after 15 trading days from the date of the announcement, accounting for about 0.245% of the company's total share capital.
However, from the perspective of industrial trends, the commercial space sector will still have multiple favorable catalytic nodes for capital and industry in 2026.
Currently, Landspace's IPO application on the Science and Technology Innovation Board of A-shares has been accepted, and it was selected for on-site IPO inspection on January 5. According to the recent speed of passing the review on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the market generally expects that Landspace may be listed on the capital market around the middle of the year, becoming the "first commercial space stock" in A-shares. Meanwhile, overseas, SpaceX's Starship V3 is expected to conduct its first integrated flight test in January 2026. SpaceX is expected to be listed in the second half of 2026, with an estimated valuation of 800 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 5.58 trillion yuan, which is expected to become the largest IPO in global history.
Meanwhile, at the industrial level, Lin Yankun analyzed to Caijing: "In 2026, China will enter a period of intensive verification of reusable rockets. China's commercial space industry will obtain all the key data on the full-flight attitude control, multiple engine ignitions, and re-entry thermal protection of reusable rockets. In the future, we will soon have our own reusable rockets. Currently, China has planned national-level low-orbit satellite Internet projects such as the GW constellation, the G60 Starlink, and the Honghu-3 constellation, with a total scale of more than 50,000 satellites. Therefore, rocket carrying capacity is a strategic resource. Whoever achieves high-frequency and low-cost launches first will be able to win constellation orders and form a positive cycle of 'launch - networking - application - payment - reinvestment'."
Meanwhile, in the commercial space field, in addition to satellite communication applications, institutions are also optimistic about the prospects of "space computing power". "China is also deploying a plan to move data centers into space, that is, 'space supercomputing'. It is expected that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, there will be a 'turning point' in the cost of space computing, that is, the one-time investment in building a space computing center may be lower than the total cost of building a ground network with the same computing power. This competition in 'space AI' is more than just about technology. It is also about the right to formulate standards and the right to lead the development of the next-generation space information infrastructure. For China's commercial space industry, we are witnessing its evolution from a single launch service to a full industrial chain ecosystem covering rocket manufacturing, satellite platforms, payload applications, data services, and even space computing power operations. This is a grand narrative led by policies, driven by technology, and boosted by capital. We are full of confidence in its long-term development and will continue to pay attention to enterprises with strong potential in the combination of core technology and commercial applications." Lin Yankun said.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Caijing Magazine". The author is Kang Guoliang, and the editor is Yang Xiuhong. It is published by 36Kr with permission.