Um den Wettlauf um Weltraumressourcen geht es. Wer ist der "chinesische SpaceX"?
Driven by numerous favorable factors, the commercial space business segment on the Chinese stock market (A - Shares) has witnessed a sharp rise.
Since 2026, the commercial space business segment has led the secondary - level Shenwan industry indices. As of January 12, 2026, the Space Equipment Index II (Shenwan Secondary Level) still ranked first among all Shenwan secondary - level industry indices, with an annual increase of 37.01%.
On January 12, 2026, the commercial space business segment once again saw a wave of stock price highs. Data from Wind shows that the commercial space index has risen by 8.45%, and the Space Equipment Index II (Shenwan Secondary Level) has risen by 10.06%. The prices of many stocks in this sector have risen by more than 10%. The stocks of Tianyin Electromechanical (300342.SZ), Guangha Communication (300711.SZ), Hualichuangtong (300045.SZ), Bolite (688333.SH), etc. have risen by 20%. The stocks of China Satellite (600118.SH), China Satellite Communications (601698.SH), Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH), Beidou Star Navigation (002151.SZ), Tongyu Communication (002792.SZ), Aerospace Hongtu (688066.SH), Sunway Communication (300136.SZ), and more than twenty other stocks have risen by 10% or more.
Among them, the market capitalization of China Satellite, the leading stock in this sector, has exceeded the mark of 137.9 billion yuan and reached a new record high. Aerospace Electronics has achieved four consecutive high - closing prices in the last four trading days. Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ), which has risen due to its investment in LandSpace (Blue Arrow Aerospace), has even achieved five consecutive high - closing prices. In terms of trading volume, Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) has achieved a daily turnover of 22.22 billion yuan, ranking second among A - Shares, only behind BlueFocus (300058.SZ).
At the same time, the ETFs (Exchange - Traded Funds) related to the commercial space have also collectively risen, and many products have reached their highest prices. The Satellite Industry ETF (159218), the Satellite ETF (159206), the GF Satellite ETF (512630), the General Aviation ETF Fund (561660), etc. have all risen by 10%. The Satellite Industry ETF has recorded a daily net inflow of over 500 million yuan, setting a new record. The total size of all satellite - themed ETFs and related funds in the entire market has exceeded the mark of 23.7 billion yuan.
The core driving force for this market development comes from the resource planning for frequencies and orbits at the national strategic level. According to reports on the official website of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), China formally submitted an application to the ITU between December 25 and 31, 2025, for the additional frequencies and orbital resources of 203,000 satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations, including medium - and low - orbit satellites. More than 190,000 of these satellites come from the newly established Institute of Radio Innovation. This is China's largest international frequency and orbit application so far, which means that the application for satellite frequency and orbit resources has been elevated to the national strategic level, and the development of the commercial space industry has been accelerated to catch up with SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.).
At the same time, SpaceX is also accelerating the deployment of Starlink satellites internationally. On January 9 local time, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced that it had approved SpaceX's application for the additional deployment of 7,500 second - generation Starlink satellites. This would increase the total number of SpaceX satellites in space to 15,000.
According to Kaiyuan Securities, in 2026, the domestic commercial space industry is expected to experience a triple resonance of "policy + technology + capital", which is highly anticipated. Supported by policies and breakthroughs in core technologies such as large - scale satellite manufacturing and reusable rockets, the industry has entered a period of rapid development. Leading enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have achieved steady revenue growth and have a sufficient order backlog, with broad long - term growth prospects.
01
Why such a sharp rise?
The sharp rise in the commercial space sector began in November 2025. Data from Wind shows that the Space Equipment Index II has doubled in value between November 24 and December 31, 2025, rising from 17,852 points to 35,222 points in just 28 trading days. This has enabled the Space Equipment Index II to jump to the top of all Shenwan secondary - level industry indices in 2025, with an annual increase of 146%.
In 2026, the upward trend of the commercial space sector has continued. As of January 12, 2026, the Space Equipment Index II still ranked first among all Shenwan secondary - level industry indices, with an annual increase of 37.01%.
In contrast to traditional government - led space projects, the commercial space refers to space activities that are market - driven and have a commercial profit model. This includes areas such as satellite manufacturing, rocket launch activities, and satellite applications. Since SpaceX successfully recovered the first stage of a rocket for the first time in 2015, the originally single - use launch rockets can now be reused. This has significantly reduced the cost per rocket launch and enabled the transition from traditional space projects to the commercial space era where profits can be made.
Currently, the most important use of the commercial space is satellite launch activities. Since the low - Earth orbits can only accommodate about 60,000 satellites, this means that the number of satellites that can be deployed in low - orbits is limited. The basic principle of the International Telecommunication Union is "first come, first served", that is, those who apply and launch successfully first have priority in using orbits and frequencies. This has prompted countries to accelerate their plans and seize the resources for low - orbit satellites.
Since SpaceX has already mastered the technology for rocket recovery, the cost per rocket launch has dropped significantly. Currently, it leads the world in terms of the number of rocket launches and the number of low - orbit satellites. Data shows that as of the end of 2025, SpaceX has carried out a total of more than 300 Falcon 9 rocket launches. In 2025, the total number of launches was about 170, a record high. Among them, 165 were Falcon 9 launches and 5 were Starship launches. In December 2025, SpaceX's Starlink launched a total of 338 satellites, accounting for nearly 70% of the global total number of launches in that month. Currently, there are more than 9,300 Starlink satellites in space, and the number of Starlink users is growing exponentially. Currently, there are more than 9 million users worldwide.
This has prompted China to accelerate the research and development of rocket recovery technology and promote the development of the commercial space industry. The commercial space business segment has also witnessed a historical upsurge under the triple resonance of policy, technology, and capital.
Politically, the National Space Administration officially established the Commercial Space Department in November 2025. This is the first national regulatory agency for the commercial space industry in China. In the same month, the National Space Administration issued the "Action Plan for the High - quality and Safe Development of the Commercial Space Industry (2025 - 2027)", which incorporates the commercial space industry into the overall plan of the national space development.
Technically, on December 3, 2025, LandSpace (Blue Arrow Aerospace) successfully sent the second stage of the reusable carrier rocket Zhuque - 3 into orbit and carried out the first technical validation of the vertical recovery of the first stage in China. It is thus the first reusable carrier rocket in China to be successfully launched and sent into orbit. On December 23, 2025, the Changzheng - 12A of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation also successfully sent the second stage into orbit. As the first reusable rocket of the "national team" in the commercial space industry, it has validated a new technical path. Although the recovery of the first stage was not completely successful in both launches, valuable progress has been made in realizing reusable rockets.
Financially, on December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Application Guidelines for the Fifth - Listing - Standard of the STAR - Market for Commercial Rocket Companies", which points out a clear path for commercial space companies to be listed on the STAR - Market. Guided by the new regulations, on December 31, 2025, the IPO application of LandSpace (Blue Arrow Aerospace) on the STAR - Market was accepted. It is the first company to be accepted after the expansion of the Fifth - Listing - Standard to the commercial space sector, and it aims for the title of "the first commercial space company on the STAR - Market".
The company plans to issue at least 40 million shares and raise 7.5 billion yuan in capital. Of this, 2.77 billion yuan will be used to increase the production capacity of reusable rockets, and 4.73 billion yuan will be invested in technological research and development.
"The new listing regulations for the commercial space require that commercial rocket companies must have achieved at least the preliminary result of a successful launch of a medium - or heavy - lift carrier rocket with reusable technology into orbit when submitting an application. This allows commercial rocket companies that have not yet made profits to go public based on technological milestones rather than financial indicators. This policy precisely solves the financing difficulties of commercial rocket companies, which have long R & D cycles, high capital requirements, and difficulties in making profits in the initial stage, and guides capital into core technology research and development." Lin Yankun, the founder of X GROUP (Deju Investment), who invested in LandSpace (Blue Arrow Aerospace) in 2020, analyzed in an interview with the magazine "Caixin".
02
Can the upward trend continue?
After the commercial space business segment on the A - Share market has repeatedly risen sharply driven by multiple favorable factors, it has reached the top of the 2026 gain lists. Brokerages generally regard 2026 as the "Year Zero of the Chinese commercial space industry". It is expected that technological breakthroughs in reusable rockets and the networking of low - orbit satellites will bring the industry from the policy incubation phase to the mass - implementation phase. The long - term emerging "space economy" market could reach a volume of several trillion yuan.
A research study by CITIC Construction Investment assumes that the global space sector is currently undergoing a profound paradigm shift. The core feature is the acceleration of the privatization process. The space sector is evolving from the dominance of government space organizations to a new pattern where "the government leads strategic exploration and the market drives commercial applications". The Chinese commercial space industry could enter a new era under the joint support of national policies and technological breakthroughs.
Soochow Securities believes that the commercial space is currently on the verge of a breakthrough from 0 to 1. Instead of focusing on stock selection, it is better to tap into the potential of the entire sector. It is recommended to make a "flat allocation" across the entire industrial chain so as not to miss any opportunities.
At the same time, many investors have missed the opportunity to buy stocks due to the too - rapid price increase in the commercial space sector. "We are optimistic about the opportunities in the commercial space, but the price increase was too fast, and we haven't found a suitable investment opportunity so far. Moreover, most stocks are currently in the concept - hype phase, and stock selection is also a problem. In the development of the commercial space, the bold investors make the most money. We are very worried." A manager of a private investment fund in Beijing said in an interview with the magazine "Caixin".
However, the commercial space sector is currently still in the stage of technological breakthrough and expectation of future growth potential. Most companies have not yet achieved results in terms of making profits. Many popular companies in the commercial space sector are still in the loss - making stage. The quarterly reports of Aerospace Development for the first three quarters of 2025 show that the company has recorded a loss of 489 million yuan in the first nine months of the year and has been making continuous losses since 2023. At the same time, many companies have achieved a price - to - earnings ratio of hundreds or even thousands with the sharp price increase. China Satellite achieved a net profit of only 15 million yuan in the first three - quarters of 2025. At the current market capitalization of 137.95 billion yuan, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) is 2,400, and that of China Satellite Communications is 877.
At the same time, several listed companies in the commercial space sector have recently regularly issued announcements about abnormal price movements and risks. China Satellite Communications issued an announcement about the abnormal price movement of its stocks on January 13, 2026. The company's fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the current stock price has deviated from the company's fundamentals. Investors participating in the transactions are exposed to enormous risks.