Competing for space resources, who is the "Chinese version of SpaceX"?
Driven by numerous favorable factors, the commercial aerospace sector of A-shares has witnessed an explosive rise.
Since 2026, the commercial aerospace sector has led the gains in the secondary industries of Shenwan. As of January 12, 2026, the Aerospace Equipment II index of the secondary industries of Shenwan continued to rank first among all secondary industries of Shenwan with a year-to-date increase of 37.01%.
On January 12, 2026, the commercial aerospace sector set off another wave of limit-up gains. According to Wind data, the commercial aerospace index rose 8.45%, and the Aerospace Equipment II sector of Shenwan rose 10.06%. Many stocks in the sector rose more than 10%. Stocks such as Tianyin Electromechanical (300342.SZ), Guangha Communication (300711.SZ), Huali Chuangtong (300045.SZ), and Bolite (688333.SH) rose 20%. More than twenty stocks including China Satellite (600118.SH), China Satellite Communications (601698.SH), Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH), Beidou Starcom (002151.SZ), Tongyu Communication (002792.SZ), Aerospace Hongtu (688066.SH), and Sunway Communication (300136.SZ) rose 10% or more.
Among them, the market value of the leading stock, China Satellite, exceeded 137.9 billion yuan, hitting a new historical high. Aerospace Electronics had four consecutive limit-up gains in the past four trading days. Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ), which rose due to its investment in LandSpace, even had five consecutive limit-up gains. In terms of trading volume, Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) had a full-day turnover of 22.222 billion yuan, ranking second in A-shares only after BlueFocus (300058.SZ).
Meanwhile, ETFs related to commercial aerospace also exploded collectively, with many products hitting the limit-up. The Satellite Industry ETF (159218), Satellite ETF (159206), GF Satellite ETF (512630), and General Aviation ETF Fund (561660) all rose 10% to hit the limit-up. The Satellite Industry ETF had a net inflow of more than 500 million yuan in a single day, hitting a new historical high. The total scale of satellite-themed ETFs and connected funds in the entire market has exceeded 23.7 billion yuan.
The core driver of this round of market is the frequency and orbit resource layout at the national strategic level. According to the news, on January 10, the official website of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) showed that from December 25 to 31, 2025, China officially submitted an application to the ITU for frequency and orbit resources for an additional 203,000 satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations, including medium and low-orbit satellites. More than 190,000 of these satellites are from the recently established Radio Innovation Institute. It is understood that this is China's largest international frequency and orbit centralized application action to date, indicating that the application for satellite frequency and orbit resources has been elevated to the national strategic level, accelerating the catch-up of the commercial aerospace industry with SpaceX.
Meanwhile, internationally, SpaceX is also accelerating the deployment of Starlink satellites. On January 9 local time, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced that it had approved SpaceX's application to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, which would bring the total number of SpaceX's global orbiting satellites to 15,000.
Kaiyuan Securities said that in 2026, China's commercial aerospace is expected to see a triple resonance of "policy + technology + capital", which is highly anticipated. Empowered by policy support and breakthroughs in core technologies such as large-scale satellite manufacturing and reusable rockets, the industry has entered a period of rapid development. Leading enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have seen steady revenue growth and sufficient order reserves, with broad long-term growth space.
01
Why the sharp rise?
This round of sharp rise in the commercial aerospace sector started in November 2025. According to Wind data, from November 24 to December 31, 2025, the Aerospace Equipment II index doubled in just 28 trading days, rising from 17,852 points to 35,222 points. This made the Aerospace Equipment II index jump to the top of all secondary industry indices of Shenwan in 2025 with an annual increase of 146%.
Entering 2026, the upward trend of the commercial aerospace sector continued. As of January 12, 2026, the Aerospace Equipment II index continued to rank first among all secondary industries of Shenwan with a year-to-date increase of 37.01%.
Different from traditional aerospace projects led by the state, commercial aerospace refers to aerospace activities that are market-oriented and have a commercial profit model, covering areas such as satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and satellite applications. Since SpaceX successfully recovered the first-stage rocket for the first time in 2015, the once single-use launch rockets have become reusable, greatly reducing the unit cost of rocket launches and ushering in the era of profitable commercial aerospace from traditional aerospace projects.
The most important current use of commercial aerospace is to launch satellites. Since the Earth's low Earth orbit is estimated to accommodate only about 60,000 satellites, it means that the number of low-orbit satellites that can be accommodated is limited. The basic principle of the International Telecommunication Union is "first come, first served", that is, those who apply and successfully launch first have priority to use the orbits and frequencies. This has also prompted countries to accelerate their layout and seize low-orbit satellite resources.
Currently, since SpaceX has mastered the technology of reusable launch rockets, the unit cost of its launches has been significantly reduced. It currently leads the world in the number of rocket launches and the number of low-orbit satellites. Data shows that as of the end of 2025, SpaceX had completed more than 300 launches of Falcon 9 rockets in total, and the total number of launches in 2025 reached about 170, a new historical high. Among them, there were 165 Falcon 9 launches and 5 Starship launches. SpaceX's Starlink launched a total of 338 satellites in December 2025, accounting for nearly 70% of the total global launches that month. Currently, the number of Starlink satellites in orbit has exceeded 9,300, and the number of Starlink users has also shown exponential growth, with more than 9 million global users currently.
This has prompted China to step up research and development of reusable rocket technology breakthroughs and the development of the commercial aerospace industry. The commercial aerospace sector has also witnessed a historic explosion under the triple resonance of policy, technology, and capital.
At the policy level, in November 2025, the National Space Administration officially established the Commercial Aerospace Department, which is the first national-level full-time regulatory agency for China's commercial aerospace industry. In the same month, the National Space Administration issued the Action Plan for Promoting the High-quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025 - 2027), incorporating commercial aerospace into the overall layout of the country's aerospace development.
At the technical level, on December 3, 2025, LandSpace's Zhuque-3 reusable carrier rocket successfully achieved second-stage orbit insertion, completing the first domestic verification of the first-stage vertical recovery technology and becoming China's first reusable carrier rocket to be launched and successfully enter orbit. On December 23, 2025, the Long March 12A of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation successfully achieved second-stage orbit insertion. As the first reusable rocket of the "national team" in commercial aerospace, it verified a new technical route. Although the first-stage recovery of both launches was not completely successful, valuable progress was made in achieving reusable rockets.
At the capital level, on December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Standards for Commercial Rocket Enterprises Applying the Fifth Listing Standard of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, pointing out a clear path for commercial aerospace enterprises to sprint for the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Guided by the new regulations, on December 31, LandSpace's IPO application on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted, becoming the first enterprise to be accepted after the expansion of the fifth standard of the Science and Technology Innovation Board to the commercial aerospace field, sprinting to become the "first commercial aerospace stock" on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
The company plans to issue no less than 40 million shares and raise 7.5 billion yuan, of which 2.77 billion yuan will be used to improve the production capacity of reusable rockets, and 4.73 billion yuan will be invested in technology research and development.
"The new regulations for the listing of commercial aerospace this time require commercial rocket enterprises to achieve at least the phased result of the first successful orbit insertion of the payload launched by a medium or large reusable carrier rocket when applying. It allows commercial rocket enterprises that have not yet made a profit to be listed based on technological milestones rather than financial indicators. This policy precisely solves the financing bottleneck of commercial rocket enterprises, which have a long R & D cycle, large capital requirements, and difficulty in making profits in the early stage, and guides capital to invest in core technology research." Lin Yankun, the founder of X GROUP (Deju Investment), which invested in LandSpace in 2020, analyzed to Caijing Magazine.
02
Can the upward trend continue?
Driven by multiple favorable factors, the A-share commercial aerospace sector has risen sharply in succession, pushing the sector to the top of the gainers list in 2026. Brokerages generally regard 2026 as the "Year of China's Commercial Aerospace", expecting that breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the networking of low-orbit satellites will drive the industry from the policy incubation period to large-scale implementation. The long-awaited "space economy" market may reach a scale of trillions of yuan.
A research report from CSC Financial believes that currently, the global aerospace field is undergoing a profound paradigm shift, with the core feature being the acceleration of the privatization process. The aerospace field is evolving from being dominated by national space agencies to a new pattern of "national strategic exploration and market-driven commercial applications". With the joint support of national policies and industrial technology breakthroughs, China's commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a new era.
Soochow Securities believes that the commercial aerospace industry is on the verge of an explosion from scratch. Instead of struggling to select individual stocks, it is better to grasp the beta of the track. It is recommended to comprehensively allocate the entire industrial chain to avoid missing any opportunities.
Meanwhile, due to the rapid rise in the stock prices of the commercial aerospace sector, many investors have missed out on the opportunity. "We are optimistic about the opportunities in commercial aerospace, but the stock prices have risen too fast, and we haven't been able to find a suitable opportunity to build a position. Moreover, most of the current situation is in the stage of concept speculation, and stock selection is also a problem. In the commercial aerospace market, the bolder investors make more money, and we are very anxious." A private equity fund manager in Beijing told Caijing Magazine.
However, from the perspective of performance, the commercial aerospace sector is still in the stage of technological breakthrough and expectation of future imagination space, and most companies have not started to release earnings. Currently, among the popular companies in the commercial aerospace sector, many are still in the loss-making stage. The third-quarter report of Aerospace Development in 2025 showed that the company had a loss of 489 million yuan in the first three quarters, and it has been in continuous losses since 2023. At the same time, with the sharp rise in stock prices, the price - earnings ratios of many companies have reached hundreds or even thousands of times. China Satellite's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2025 was only 15 million yuan. Based on the current market value of 137.95 billion yuan, the price - earnings ratio (TTM) reached 2,400 times, and the price - earnings ratio of China Satellite Communications also reached 877 times.
Meanwhile, many listed companies in the commercial aerospace sector have recently issued announcements on abnormal stock price fluctuations and risk warnings. On January 13, 2026, China Satellite Communications issued an announcement on abnormal fluctuations in stock trading, stating that the company's fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the recent stock price has deviated from the company's fundamentals, and investors face great risks when participating in trading. It also mentioned that the "hot potato" effect of the company's stock is very obvious, and there is a risk of a sharp short - term decline.
It is worth noting that there have also been cases of major shareholders reducing their holdings of commercial aerospace concept stocks recently. Goldwind Science & Technology, which holds 4.14% of LandSpace's equity, has had five consecutive limit - up gains in the past five trading days. On January 10, 2026, Goldwind Science & Technology issued a pre - disclosure announcement on major shareholder's shareholding reduction. Xinjiang Energy, a shareholder, plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1.0356 million shares within three months after 15 trading days from the date of the announcement, accounting for about 0.245% of the company's total share capital.
However, from the perspective of industrial trends, the commercial aerospace sector will still have multiple favorable catalytic nodes for capital and industry in 2026.
Currently, LandSpace's IPO application on the Science and Technology Innovation Board of A - shares has been accepted, and it was selected for on - site IPO inspection on January 5. According to the recent approval speed of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the market generally expects that LandSpace may be listed on the capital market around the middle of the year, becoming the "first commercial aerospace stock" in A - shares. Meanwhile, overseas, SpaceX's Starship V3 is expected to conduct its first integrated flight test in January 2026. SpaceX is expected to be listed in the second half of 2026, with an estimated valuation of 800 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 5.58 trillion yuan, which is expected to become the largest IPO in global history.
Meanwhile, at the industrial level, Lin Yankun analyzed to Caijing Magazine: "In 2026, China will enter a period of intensive verification of reusable rockets. China's commercial aerospace will obtain all the key data on the attitude control of the entire flight process of reusable rockets, multiple ignitions of engines, and re - entry thermal protection. In the future, we will soon have our own reusable rockets. Currently, China has planned national - level low - orbit satellite Internet projects such as the GW constellation, G60 Starlink, and Honghu - 3 constellation, with a total scale of more than 50,000 satellites. Therefore, rocket launch capacity is a strategic resource. Whoever achieves high - frequency, low - cost launches first will be able to win constellation orders and form a positive cycle of 'launch - networking - application - payment - reinvestment'."
Meanwhile, in the field of commercial aerospace, in addition to satellite communication applications, institutions are also optimistic about the prospects of "space computing power". "China is also deploying a plan to move data centers into space, that is, 'space supercomputing'. It is expected that during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, there will be a 'turning point' in the cost of space computing, that is, the one - time investment in building a new space computing center may be lower than the total cost of building a ground network with the same computing power. This competition in'space AI' is more than just about technology. It is also about the power to set standards and lead the development of the next - generation space information infrastructure. For China's commercial aerospace industry, we are witnessing its evolution from a single launch service to a full - industrial - chain ecosystem covering rocket manufacturing, satellite platforms, payload applications, data services, and even space computing power operations. This is a grand narrative led by policies, driven by technology, and boosted by capital. We are full of confidence in its long - term development and will continue to focus on enterprises that have strong potential in combining core technology and commercial applications." Lin Yankun said.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Caijing Magazine", author: Kang Guoliang, editor: Yang Xiuhong. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.