The commercial space industry has entered a period of in-depth reshuffle.

If the past decade was the "technology verification period" for China's commercial space industry, then in 2026, the industry will officially enter the watershed year of commercialization and scale - up.

On one hand, social capital and state - owned funds are pouring in at an accelerated pace, and the secondary market for old shares has suddenly heated up. On the other hand, there are real constraints such as the race for reusable rockets, the intensive networking of low - orbit satellite constellations, and the tightening supply of launch pads.

Against the backdrop of the interweaving of multiple forces, China's commercial space industry is moving from the exploratory stage of "a hundred rockets taking off simultaneously" to a profound reshuffle centered around cost, production capacity, and delivery capabilities.

Market Competes for Old Shares of Top Projects

"The popularity of the commercial space track has suddenly exploded recently. The investment shares of top commercial space companies have now become the focus of capital competition. Many investors from social capital and state - owned enterprises have frequently asked us whether we are selling the old shares of our projects," Jiang Chun, a partner at Puhua Capital, which has previously invested in star commercial space projects such as Zhenlei Technology, Galaxy Power, and Changguang Satellite, told a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily.

Jiang Chun revealed that the concentrated influx of social capital has quickly digested the existing shares of top projects, and state - owned institutions are even more eager to participate. Government - led funds from multiple regions have actively sought to connect with commercial space projects. Behind this are both industrial judgments and clear policy guidance.

Against the backdrop of the continuous advancement of the "Space Power" strategy, the commercial space industry has been regarded as a strategic emerging industry direction. Many interviewed investors pointed out that for some state - owned capital, maintaining a certain allocation in the commercial space track has gradually become a consensus choice.

Ding Yiting, a partner at the Tsinghua Alumni Seed Fund, also told a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the changes in the secondary market for old shares have been particularly obvious in the past year. "Take Tianbing Technology as an example. The company has previously sold old shares, but when the market was generally cold in the previous two years, institutions were generally more cautious," Ding Yiting said. "Since the second half of 2025, the demand for taking over old shares has significantly increased, and many institutions have started to actively look for opportunities to enter the market."

Ding Yiting has long been concerned about the commercial space field and has previously invested in a number of well - known commercial space projects such as Tianbing Technology, Tianyi Research Institute, Interstellar Development, and Mi Entropy. In her view, the above - mentioned changes in capital enthusiasm are not driven by a single factor: on one hand, the market's understanding of top commercial space companies has gradually become clearer, and the investment targets have further converged; on the other hand, as the commercialization progress of some projects has become apparent, the risk appetite on the capital side has also been restored. Whether it is directly taking over old shares or making arrangements in the Pre - IPO round, the number of participating institutions has increased significantly.

Behind the sudden increase in capital enthusiasm, an important influencing factor is the continuous improvement of policy support for the commercial space industry. Since the "Medium - and Long - Term Development Plan for the National Civil Space Infrastructure (2015 - 2025)" first systematically supported social capital's participation in the construction of civil space infrastructure in the top - level planning in 2015, the commercial space industry has gradually completed the institutional preparation from "breaking the ice" to "taking shape".

In recent years, this trend has been further strengthened. The government work reports in 2024 and 2025 both proposed to "promote the cluster development of the commercial space industry". The commercial space industry has officially entered the sequence of strategic emerging industries that are key to be promoted from a nurturing - type industry.

What has the most direct impact on the primary market is the guidelines for commercial rocket companies to apply the fifth set of listing standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board issued at the end of 2025. For the first time, these guidelines provide detailed specifications for commercial rocket companies to apply the fifth set of listing standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, opening up the domestic capital market channel for commercial space companies that are still in the critical growth stage and have not yet achieved profitability.

This institutional arrangement has significantly improved the long - term capital expectations of commercial space projects, allowing the market to make capital arrangements in advance based on the assessment of technological potential and strategic value.

Against this background, the current warming of capital in the commercial space track is not driven by short - term sentiment. Tang Jincao, the chairman of Shim Capital, who has long focused on this field, analyzed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that in 2025, the primary market's attention to the commercial space industry significantly increased. The industry is shifting from the early stage of "spontaneous exploration" to a more clearly "nationally - system - guided" stage. At the same time, funds are showing a trend of concentrating on top and hard - technology projects, and the differentiation of project valuations has intensified.

Public statistical data shows that in 2025, the total financing in the commercial space industry reached 18.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 32%; there were a total of 67 financing deals. Rocket manufacturing and satellite applications were the main areas attracting funds, and national and local guiding funds were the main sources of "patient capital".

Looking ahead to 2026, Tang Jincao believes that the fundraising side will benefit from the continuous leverage of the national venture capital guiding fund and the expansion of the fifth set of standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is expected that the fundraising will increase year - on - year, and the participation of social capital is expected to further increase.

On the investment side, the focus will be on key areas such as reusable rockets and satellite payloads. The proportion of "investing early and in small companies" will increase, and single - investment decisions will become more rational; on the management side, penetrating supervision and post - investment empowerment will be strengthened, and a performance evaluation system suitable for science and technology innovation will be established; on the exit side, with the IPOs of several top companies, the path of "technology - orders - listing - reinvestment" will be opened up, and the exit channels of the private equity secondary market and regional equity markets will be broadened simultaneously.

The Commercial Space Rocket Launch Industry Will Accelerate the Reshuffle

Currently, the listing process of commercial space rocket companies has significantly accelerated. At least 10 commercial space companies have launched their IPO processes, among which 5 companies, including LandSpace, iSpace, CAS Space, Galaxy Power, and Tianbing Technology, focus on the launch vehicle field.

On the last day of 2025, LandSpace's IPO process made the latest progress. Its application for IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and it plans to raise 5.5 billion yuan.

A reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily noticed that all the above - mentioned companies rushing for IPO were established between 2015 and 2019. This was the period when national policies encouraged private enterprises to develop the commercial space industry, and the commercial space field began to develop rapidly.

This group of companies has gone through the complete cycle of technology verification, engineering trial - and - error, and commercial exploration, and has gradually reached the critical stage of "realizing large - scale capabilities". The rapid increase in the frequency of rocket launches is the most intuitive evidence of the enhanced capabilities of the main participants in the industry. Public data shows that in 2025, the number of domestic commercial space rocket launches exceeded 92, a year - on - year increase of about 48%.

For example, LandSpace has established itself with liquid oxygen methane rocket technology. Its Zhuque - 2 is the first domestic liquid oxygen methane rocket to successfully enter orbit, and Zhuque - 3 has also achieved the technology verification of reusable rockets; the success rate of Galaxy Power's Ceres - 1 rocket launches exceeds 90%, and it won 12 launch orders for domestic low - orbit satellite networking in 2025; iSpace's Hyperbola - 1 series of rockets have completed a total of 11 launches, and its customers include commercial satellite companies and research institutions; Orient Space focuses on the research and development of large - scale commercial rockets, and its Gravity - 1 rocket successfully completed its maiden flight in January 2024; OneSpace, an early player in the domestic commercial rocket field, focuses on the rapid - response launch track with solid - fuel rockets.

As the constellation networking enters the substantial acceleration stage, new - model rockets make their maiden flights in a concentrated manner and are put into application, and new launch pads and commercial launch capabilities are gradually released. It is expected that the annual number of rocket launches in China will exceed 100 in 2026.

The increase in launch scale also means a fundamental change in the competition logic, and thus the industry reshuffle has arrived. An executive of a top commercial space company analyzed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the breakthrough in rocket recovery technology is accelerating. Whoever can achieve the normal recovery of rockets first and reduce the launch cost to less than $10,000 per kilogram will be able to control the pricing power; currently, some core components of domestic commercial rockets still rely on imports. Whoever can achieve independent substitution will also win in terms of production capacity and cost; secondly, the construction of low - orbit satellite constellations is a long - term project. Only companies that can sign long - term launch agreements with large - scale satellite companies can obtain stable cash flows.

He further said that there is no consensus in the industry on the number of companies that will ultimately stand out, but it is generally believed that the number of surviving top companies will be limited. "In the rocket field, due to the differences in technological characteristics and market demand, the number of top companies is expected to be 5 - 6. This judgment is not a subjective assumption but a conclusion based on industry development laws and the competitive advantages of top companies."

A relevant person in charge of LandSpace also previously told a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the future development trend of the commercial space industry will become more and more concentrated. "Because this industry is actually very sensitive to price, if a company can achieve a significant breakthrough in price first, then there will be few survival opportunities left for other companies. The final concentration is not the result of voluntary distribution but the result of market competition."

However, the final outcome has not arrived yet. Jiang Chun analyzed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the production capacity and technological capabilities of current top companies in the rocket field may not fully meet the launch requirements of the two major satellite constellations. "The industry pattern is not yet fully solidified, and there are still opportunities for new players to enter the market and overtake on the curve."

2026: A Year of Intensive Assault for Reusable Rockets

The commercial space track remains highly popular, and rocket launches, as the core part of the industrial chain, have naturally become the focus of attention.

The major cost of a rocket lies in the engine and the rocket body, with the cost of the first - stage rocket body accounting for more than 70%. Therefore, it is the key to reducing the launch cost. Currently, liquid reusable rockets have become the core development direction for solving the problem of reusable rockets.

The ultimate goal of reusable rockets is to reduce costs. Zhang Yujiao, the secretary of the board of LandSpace, previously told a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the reuse cost of Zhuque - 3 shows the characteristics of "high initial investment and marginal decline in the later stage". After 20 reuses, the cost is basically only the marginal cost, mainly including the manufacturing cost of the second - stage rocket and the maintenance cost of the first - stage rocket. According to LandSpace's plan, the ultimate goal of Zhuque - 3 is to reduce the unit launch cost to less than 20,000 yuan per kilogram.

In reality, there is still a gap of about 4 - 6 times in the overall carrying capacity of rockets between China and the United States, and the cost gap is also directly reflected in the commercial quotes.

An insider in the commercial space industry also told a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that there are obvious differences in the current domestic satellite launch fees. The mainstream commercial launch quotes are concentrated between 50,000 and 100,000 yuan per kilogram, but for some small - scale rockets or special - orbit launches, the cost can still reach 150,000 yuan per kilogram. Calculated in this way, the launch cost of a 500 - kilogram satellite could reach up to 75 million yuan.

Under such cost pressure, reusable rockets have gradually become a must - answer question for determining a company's survival space.

However, the technology of reusable rockets in China is still in the catching - up stage. Tian Yaosi, the Party secretary of LandSpace, previously told a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that companies such as the commercial rocket company of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, LandSpace, Galaxy Power, and CAS Space have all laid out the research and development of reusable rockets, but the progress of each company varies, and the technical routes they adopt are also different.

Entering 2026, reusable rockets are facing a "year of intensive assault": 11 models are competing on the same stage. There are not only the continuous efforts of Zhuque - 3 and Long March 12A but also the maiden flights of 8 new rockets such as Long March 12B and Pallas - 1. The reusable configuration of Tianlong - 3 will also join the recovery battle in the second half of the year.

According to the R & D plans released by multiple companies, China will have multiple reusable rockets plan to carry out flight and recovery missions before the first half of 2026.

Dong Kai, the deputy chief engineer of Zhuque - 3, recently clearly stated that "for Zhuque - 3, the maiden flight is just the beginning. We have adjusted our plan and hope to achieve successful recovery by the middle of 2026. Once successful, the three rockets we have produced will be quickly put into iteration."

Galaxy Power also confirmed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that all the large - scale ground tests of Pallas - 1 have been completed, and it plans to conduct its maiden flight around the Spring Festival.

At the same time, the reusable rockets of the "national team" are also accelerating. Starting from 2026, at least 4 reusable rockets will successively carry out maiden flight missions.

At the recently concluded Wenchang Space Forum, Guan Song, the general manager of China Rocket, announced that the reusable Long March 10B rocket is expected to meet the conditions for its maiden flight in April 2026. In the future, this model of rocket will, together with Long March 10A and Long March 10C, carry out launch missions at the exclusive launch pads No. 3 and No. 4 at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site.

Long March 10A is a model planned by the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. It is matched with the B and C models and is positioned as a medium - capacity reusable rocket; Long March 10C is a large - capacity reusable model of the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation; the 5 - meter - class reusable rocket of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is developed by the corporation as a whole and is expected to make its maiden flight in the first half of 2026.

However, at a time when the technology is in a period of intensive breakthroughs, the constraints on the infrastructure side have become a bottleneck. As the most crucial underlying resource, the number, specialization, and turnover efficiency of launch pads have become one of the core bottlenecks restricting the frequency of commercial rocket launches and the reduction of costs.

As of July 2025, there were 18 commercial space launch pads in operation at major launch sites across the country, and another 7 were under construction. These launch pads are mainly concentrated in national - level satellite launch centers such as Wenchang, Jiuquan, and Taiyuan, which give priority to the advancement of national space projects. Therefore, the launch windows for commercial rockets are relatively tight, with an average queuing time of up to one month.

Against the backdrop of the intensive networking stage of low - orbit satellite constellations, this contradiction has been further amplified. The total number of satellites planned for multiple projects represented by China SatNet and the G60 Qianfan Constellation has exceeded 26,000. There is a direct conflict between the high - frequency launch demand and the limited and scheduled launch pads.

To address this gap, new launch sites and pads are being planned and constructed. For example, the second - phase project of the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site is building launch pads No. 3 and No. 4, and it is planned to form a pattern of "two phases, four pads" by the end of 2026. By then, the annual launch capacity is expected to exceed 60 times. In addition, commercial launch sites in places such as Ningbo in Zhejiang, Liangshan in Sichuan, and Yangjiang in Guangdong are also in the preparatory development stage. However, there