Next year, car purchases will receive a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan. Consumers are happy, while scalpers are sad.

In 2025, the Chinese automobile market witnessed a magnificent year propelled by the powerful national subsidy policy. Data shows that from January to November this year, the total volume of automobile trade - ins nationwide exceeded 11.2 million. The policy "bonus rain" effectively watered the prosperity of the automobile market, driving related consumption to over 2.5 trillion yuan and benefiting more than 360 million people.

The trade - in policy directly promoted the growth of automobile consumption. In the first 11 months of 2025, domestic automobile sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year. Among them, new energy vehicles stood out, with sales reaching 14.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. The scale of the policy is expected to exceed 180 billion yuan. Coupled with measures such as the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles, it provided strong support for the market.

However, in December, as the annual subsidy quota was gradually exhausted and consumers' wait - and - see sentiment grew, the terminal market quietly showed signs of weak growth. The industry generally felt the chill before the "policy window period".

Just when major automobile enterprises were preparing for the New Year's Day promotion and the market was looking forward to a new round of policy guidance, on December 30th, the "Implementation Rules for the 2026 Automobile Trade - in Subsidy" jointly issued by seven departments including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce was like a "timely rain", precisely irrigating the slightly anxious automobile market at the end of the year.

Taking a closer look, the new policy, which made its debut amidst high expectations, made adjustments in many aspects such as the subsidy scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanism. It not only continued the subsidy intensity but also made important optimizations in orientation and mechanism, leading the automobile consumption promotion policy into a new stage of more precise implementation and high - quality development.

Based on the continuation and optimization of the subsidy, the industry generally believes that the new policy will effectively stabilize the fluctuations in the traditional off - season and inject a strong boost for a steady start of the automobile market in 2026.

Seamless subsidy connection, more precise and reasonable

On December 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on implementing the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy in 2026 (referred to as the "Notice"). The Notice mentioned automobiles several times, and the update of the national automobile subsidy policy received great attention.

Generally speaking, the core of the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy lies in three dimensions: continuing the total quota, optimizing the subsidy structure, and strengthening the whole - process supervision. Its specific rules also present very distinct characteristics.

First of all, the new policy introduced a differentiated subsidy calculation method linked to the price of new cars for the first time, aiming to encourage mid - to - high - end consumption and promote the value improvement of the automobile industry.

For scrapping old cars and purchasing new ones, new energy passenger cars will receive a subsidy of 12% of the new car price, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan. This means that if the purchase price of a car reaches or exceeds 166,700 yuan, consumers can enjoy the full 20,000 - yuan subsidy. For fuel - powered cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less, the subsidy is 10% of the new car price, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan. When the purchase price reaches or exceeds 150,000 yuan, consumers can get the full 15,000 - yuan subsidy.

For transferring old cars and purchasing new ones, new energy passenger cars will receive a subsidy of 8% of the new car price, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan. The purchase price needs to reach 187,500 yuan or more to enjoy the maximum subsidy. For fuel - powered cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less, the subsidy is 6% of the new car price, with a maximum of 13,000 yuan. The purchase price threshold is set at 216,700 yuan.

It is not difficult to see that compared with the "one - size - fits - all" fixed - amount or proportional subsidy in 2025, the new policy in 2026 combines "inclusiveness" and "guidance" by setting subsidy caps and implicit price thresholds.

On the one hand, all eligible consumers can still enjoy practical subsidies. On the other hand, policy resources are more inclined to encourage consumers to choose higher - value models. This directly addresses the structural problem in 2025 where "the sales of low - priced cars soared but the industry's profit growth was weak", aiming to promote the transformation of the automobile market from quantitative expansion to quality improvement. This is more beneficial for brands with a dense layout of mid - to - high - end models and high - value - added technologies in their product lines.

In addition, the new policy specifically emphasizes "optimizing the fund allocation method and improving the full - chain implementation rules" and clearly proposes to "severely crack down on illegal and irregular behaviors such as subsidy fraud and 'raising prices first and then getting subsidies'".

To address the possible behavior of dealers raising prices temporarily before the policy is introduced to dilute the subsidy benefits (i.e., "raising prices first and then getting subsidies") in previous years, the new policy will be curbed by strengthening price monitoring, clarifying the reference benchmark price, and establishing a reporting and verification mechanism.

Meanwhile, according to previous information, behaviors such as "scalpers" snatching subsidies on behalf of others and illegally obtaining subsidies will also be strictly investigated. It is expected that through technical and administrative means such as strengthening the verification of the authenticity of the owner's identity and vehicle information, using big - data cross - comparison, and establishing a credit blacklist, the subsidy will be ensured to truly benefit real consumers. Once identified as a scalper snatching subsidies on behalf of others, not only will the current subsidy eligibility be cancelled, but also the person will be included in the government's list of untrustworthy entities and will not be eligible for any public - welfare subsidies for three years.

At the same time, optimizing the fund allocation may mean a more efficient review and payment process, as well as a more precise tilt towards areas with active consumption and key promoted models, ensuring that "good steel is used for the blade".

Although the orientation is more refined, the overall financial support of the national subsidy in 2026 has not weakened. It is worth noting that to seize the traditional consumption peak seasons of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the state has issued the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to local governments in advance to support the trade - in program.

This means that starting from January 1, 2026, consumers can enjoy the new subsidy after going through the relevant procedures, achieving a "seamless connection" of the policy. This will greatly stabilize market confidence, effectively avoid consumer wait - and - see due to policy switching and severe market fluctuations in the first quarter, and help the 2026 automobile market achieve a "good start".

Will the subsidy lead to growth and stabilize the automobile market next year?

The introduction of the new policy in 2026 is based on the remarkable achievements of the "national subsidy" in the past two years. Looking back at 2024 and 2025, the trade - in policy has become a key engine for driving automobile consumption and promoting industrial upgrading.

In 2024, the state issued 150 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for the first time, specifically for consumer goods trade - ins, with automobiles being the top priority. Once this policy, known as the "national subsidy", was launched, it quickly ignited market enthusiasm. It directly reduced the car - changing costs of consumers, especially owners of old cars, effectively released the suppressed renewal demand, provided decisive support for the stable growth of the automobile market that year, and accumulated valuable experience for subsequent policy optimization.

In view of the successful practice in 2024, the state decisively increased its investment in 2025, doubling the national subsidy quota to 300 billion yuan. The unprecedented policy intensity created a "bonus rain" effect, and its catalytic effect on the automobile market was more significant.

With the increase of the national subsidy, from January to November this year, it drove more than 11.2 million automobile trade - ins. This is a milestone figure, indicating that the policy has deeply penetrated into the market and reached a large number of car owners. At the same time, the national subsidy not only directly promoted automobile sales but also drove related goods and service consumption of over 2.5 trillion yuan through the industrial chain, benefiting more than 360 million people, highlighting the pillar role of automobile consumption in the macro - economy.

Meanwhile, driven by the policy, the trade - in ratio of new energy vehicles continued to increase, accelerating the replacement of the fuel - powered vehicle stock market and the green transformation of the entire transportation system.

Two years of practice have fully proven that the "trade - in" subsidy is an excellent policy tool that directly targets demand, takes effect quickly, and has a significant multiplier effect. It not only stimulates consumption and promotes circulation at the economic level, helps with energy conservation, emission reduction, and the improvement of traffic safety at the social level, but also accelerates technological progress and production capacity optimization at the industrial level.

Therefore, standing on the high - base achievements of the previous two years, the 2026 national subsidy policy shoulders a new mission. It is no longer simply about stimulating sales but precisely guiding the structure and improving quality. Through the differentiated subsidy design, the policy signal is clear: encourage consumers to pursue higher - quality and higher - technology - content automobiles, and promote automobile enterprises to shift the focus of competition from price wars to value wars.

With the early arrival of the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds and the simultaneous implementation of strict supervision, a more standardized, transparent, and efficient subsidy implementation environment is taking shape. It can be predicted that in 2026, the Chinese automobile market, escorted by the new national subsidy policy, is expected to bid farewell to the large - scale fluctuations and move towards a prosperous situation characterized by technological upgrading, brand improvement, and consumption quality improvement.

A new development cycle of the automobile market has quietly begun with the release of the new policy.

This article is from the WeChat public account "Automobile Commune" (ID: iAUTO2010), author: Li Sijia, published by 36Kr with authorization.