In 2025, China's venture capital industry emerged from the trough.

From the depletion of fundraising and the correction of valuations, to the recovery of investments and the acceleration of IPOs, and then to AI becoming a historical consensus, the logic of the venture capital cycle in 2025 is quietly being rebuilt.

After two years of in - depth adjustment, the venture capital industry in 2025 begins to see a glimmer of certainty.

At the 25th China Private Equity Annual Conference, the leaders of 12 leading institutions such as Sequoia China, GGV Capital, Qiming Venture Partners, Legend Capital, and IDG Capital rarely gave similar judgments: the most difficult two years for the venture capital industry have passed, and the real growth cycle will start to emerge in 2026.

This dialogue titled "Different Solutions for the Future" has, to some extent, become the annual summary of the Chinese venture capital industry: from the depletion of fundraising and the correction of valuations, to the recovery of investments and the acceleration of IPOs, and then to AI becoming a historical consensus, the logic of the venture capital cycle in 2025 is quietly being rebuilt.

The Ice on the Venture Capital Industry is Melting

At the beginning of this year, reporters from the Venture Capital Daily conducted an in - depth industry report on the "recovery of the venture capital industry". As the end of the year approaches, the leading GPs who appeared in the same dialogue provided quantifiable verification for the "signs of recovery" based on their own project investments and exits.

From the perspective of the investment side, all the GPs participating in the dialogue said that the investment pace since 2025 has accelerated.

Wang Guangxi, the vice - president of Lenovo Group and the managing partner of Lenovo Capital and Incubator Group, said that Lenovo Capital and Incubator Group has launched about 40 new projects this year, with a total of more than 60 investment deals, "which is quite close to the historical high."

Qiming Venture Partners began to increase its investment intensity from May - June 2024. Hu Xubo, its managing partner, said that in the more than one - year period from June - July this year, Qiming Venture Partners' cumulative investment scale was close to $500 million, "the investment intensity is still relatively high."

Hu Xubo further said that there have also been positive changes on the fundraising side. "This year, we also launched the fundraising of new US dollar and RMB funds almost at the same time. On the US dollar side, we feel that LPs are still interested in China's innovation. At the same time, we also see that investors from other regions are increasing their interest in the Chinese market. The fundraising work has been quite smooth overall and is being promoted with greater efforts."

The exit channels are also opening up. Hu Xubo said that as of now, Qiming Venture Partners has achieved 7 IPOs this year. "The most influential one is Insta360, which has performed very well after going public." Wang Guangxi also said that the recovery of the entire capital market is clearly felt. "There were two IPOs before this, and three more will be added on the STAR Market this month. The feeling this year is quite good, and there are still many companies in the pipeline."

However, more GPs are pinning their hopes on next year. Li Jiaqing, the president of Legend Capital, frankly said that compared with the hot cycle from 2018 - 2022, the industry in 2025 can only be described as "average". But he said directly that Legend Capital has a number of projects that will bring "good news" next year, so the trend next year is even more critical.

"I think next year will be better than this year. How things will develop in the next five years, next year is very important for us. To some extent, we have still been digesting some existing stocks in the past two years. The results will be seen in 2026 and 2027."

The Industry Reaches a Consensus on Opportunity Points: AI and Globalization

Judging from the speeches of the GPs present, the main participants in the industry seem to have reached a high degree of consensus on the judgment of time points, opportunity points, and risk points.

Almost all the leaders of the leading institutions participating in the dialogue said that investment opportunities are concentrated in the technology field represented by AI and going global. Among them, Hu Xubo believes that the biggest opportunity in the technology field lies in the application level of artificial intelligence, which is also the key investment direction of Qiming Venture Partners in this field this year. He further said that in the field of medical innovation, Qiming's investment theme revolves around "the globalization of China's pharmaceutical innovation capabilities", including innovative drugs and medical devices. "In Shenzhen, we have an invested enterprise that manufactures medical devices. 90% of its revenue comes from the global market, while the proportion of the Chinese market is relatively small. The United States is its largest single market globally."

The concentration of consensus also means, to some extent, that bubbles may form. Most GP professionals said in public talks that the investment bubble in the domestic AI field is currently relatively controllable. Li Jiaqing discussed from the perspective of the primary - market investment cycle. He believes that what we are facing now is a 10 - 15 - year long - cycle technological innovation development that requires huge investment. "In the long - term, China will inevitably produce technology companies worth hundreds of billions or trillions."

Wang Guangxi took history as a reference. Basically, every major wave and new opportunity has been accompanied by the emergence of bubbles. "For example, the Internet bubble in 2000 and 2001." He believes that even the current AI bubble in the United States is not as large as it was then, "and the entire valuation system in China is even smaller. There are both opportunities and bubbles in this area, but the bubble is not that scary."

Hu Xubo believes that "there are bubbles in companies, but there is no bubble in the industry."

In terms of risk points, most GPs mentioned that the unstable factors in the secondary market may bring uncertainties to the industry.

Another unnamed GP professional told the Venture Capital Daily after the meeting that the phenomenon of repeated investments by government - guided funds in the past deserves attention.

Special statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors shall bear their own risks for any operations based on this.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Venture Capital Daily", author: Yang Xiaoxiao, published by 36Kr with authorization.