Stock prices and performance moving in opposite directions. Are NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto "sick"?

After the release of the financial reports of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto, the market's reaction left outsiders utterly bewildered!

On November 17th, XPeng took the lead in releasing its strongest quarterly report in the company's history: both revenue and sales reached record highs, and the loss was significantly narrowed. However, on the next day, its market value evaporated by 20 billion yuan.

On November 25th, NIO delivered its strongest quarterly report in terms of sales and revenue in history. In the following two days, its stock price in the Hong Kong stock market dropped by nearly 8% in total.

On November 26th, Li Auto presented a quarterly performance with a significant decline in sales and revenue and its first loss in three years. Then, its stock price in the US stock market rose slightly.

Who can you reason with about this?

Is it possible that the market was touched by a wave of "sincere speeches" from Li Xiang, the founder, chairman, and CEO of Li Auto?

"In the past three years, my startup team and I have been working hard to learn the management system of professional managers and forcing ourselves to accept various changes. However, we have become worse versions of ourselves," Li Xiang said at the Q3 2025 earnings conference call. "Starting from the fourth quarter of this year, we firmly return to the management model of a startup company to face the challenges of the new era and new technologies."

Li Xiang's confession, which is worthy of being included in the "Top Ten Speeches That Touched Netizens," can only be counted as one of the reasons at most. The financial reports of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto are much more complicated than expected.

The Leader Also Has the Lowest Data

Let's first look at the financial report data simply and straightforwardly:

In the third quarter, XPeng led the delivery volume with 116,000 vehicles.

Since 2024, XPeng's new vehicle delivery volume has been continuously increasing every quarter. Since the launch of the LeDao L90 in the second quarter of 2025, NIO's sales have also been in a significant upward trend. Li Auto, which had a significant lead in 2024, has been in a sharp decline since entering 2025.

In the third quarter of 2025, the delivery volume gap between Li Auto and NIO has narrowed to about 6,000 vehicles. In fact, as early as August 2025, NIO surpassed Li Auto in monthly sales and has maintained the lead ever since.

Although Li Auto's revenue declined along with its sales, its revenue of 27.36 billion yuan was still more than a quarter higher than that of NIO and XPeng.

XPeng, which had the highest sales volume, had the lowest revenue among the three. Unexpected, right? There's nothing we can do about it. After all, the prices of XPeng's cars are not in the same league as those of the other two.

Li Auto's lead in revenue is also coming to an end. The fourth - quarter guidance shows that NIO's revenue will reach 33 billion yuan, while Li Auto's highest guidance for the same period is less than 30 billion yuan. XPeng... temporarily doesn't plan to participate in the revenue competition.

However, in terms of gross profit margin, XPeng is definitely the first. The 2.3 - billion - yuan technical service fee from Volkswagen Group helped their gross profit margin in the third quarter reach over 20.1%. In fact, their gross profit margin for the automotive business was only 13.1%, ranking last among the three.

Contrary to XPeng, NIO's comprehensive gross profit of 13.9% in the third quarter was dragged down by the performance of other businesses. The hot sales of high - gross - profit models such as the LeDao L90 allowed them to still achieve a 14.7% gross profit from car sales, reaching a new high in nearly three years.

Different from the continuous upward trend of the gross profit margins of the first two companies, Li Auto's gross profit margin for the automotive business dropped by 5.4% in the third quarter of 2025, but the value of 15.5% was still the highest among the three; the comprehensive gross profit margin was 16.3%, ranking second.

The high gross profit allowed XPeng to narrow its net loss to 380 million yuan in the third quarter, the least among the three. NIO had the largest loss, even more than three times the sum of the other two.

Li Auto, in the middle position, had a quarterly loss of 620 million yuan. This ended its record of 11 consecutive quarters of profit and brought NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto back to the era of "full - scale losses."

Even though they are in full - scale losses, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto all said that they are confident that their net profits will turn positive in the fourth quarter.

Is It Reliable for Them to Achieve Profits Together in the Fourth Quarter?

Where does the confidence of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto come from?

XPeng, which dared to be the first to release its financial report, had its loss in the third quarter of 2025 reduced to 380 million yuan. For a company with a quarterly revenue of over 10 billion yuan, this loss is almost negligible.

XPeng's sales guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 is between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles, and the revenue is between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan. These two sets of data don't seem to have increased much compared to the third quarter, but the technical service fee paid by Volkswagen will continue to increase, providing a solid foundation for their profit target.

NIO's loss of 3.48 billion yuan seems alarming. In fact, part of the loss was due to the pre - payment of the fourth - quarter costs in the third quarter, such as the NIO DAY. This left some room for them to achieve profits.

In addition, the hot sales of high - gross - profit models such as the LeDao L90 and NIO ES8 also bring greater opportunities for NIO to improve its profitability. NIO revealed that the ES8 will aim for a monthly sales volume of 20,000 units. At the same time, NIO also plans to cut other expenses in the fourth quarter to boost profits. For example, the R & D expenses will be reduced to about 2 billion yuan, the lowest in the past two years, a year - on - year reduction of 40%.

Li Tie, the CFO of Li Auto, said at the third - quarter earnings conference call that if the cost of the Mega recall was excluded, their gross profit margin for the automotive business in the third quarter could reach 19.8%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin could reach 20.4%.

It's a pity... there is no "if."

However, in the fourth quarter, Li Auto still has a chance to return to the era of profitability. After all, the cost of the Mega recall is gone. Coupled with the return to the "startup - team management model," it's hard for Li Auto's market performance to be worse than it is now.

Are There Risks for All Three in 2026?

Even if they are about to achieve profitability, it's hard to say that the future of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto is "stable."

Currently, their development trends have been questioned.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, XPeng's sales and revenue target guidance were both 10 percentage points lower than the market expectations. NIO's sales guidance of 120,000 vehicles was even 20% lower than before, and Li Auto's target guidance was lower than that of the same period in 2024.

In addition, XPeng's average selling price per vehicle continued to decline. In the third quarter of 2025, the average selling price per XPeng vehicle was only 156,000 yuan, lower than the expected 165,000 yuan and more than 36% lower than that in the first quarter of 2024.

Li Auto is facing weak sales and has no new models to stimulate the market. In 2026, they will only launch major facelifts for the L series, whose sales have been continuously declining.

Of course, we don't need to worry too much. All three companies have backup plans.

The orders for XPeng's first extended - range model, the X9 extended - range version, far exceeded expectations. In 2026, they will also launch three new extended - range models. The first SUV of the MONA series, which is currently the sales mainstay, is also undergoing road testing.

The orders for high - gross - profit models such as NIO's ES8 are growing steadily. In the new year, they will also launch three new high - gross - profit large - sized vehicles.

Li Auto's pure - electric models are performing well. If it weren't for the constraints of parts supply, the sales of the Li Auto i6 would be much better. In 2026, they will also launch an AI system equipped with the self - developed M100 chip. More importantly, they still have 98.9 billion yuan in cash on their books.

Conclusion

Judging from the financial reports, NIO and XPeng are continuously improving, and Li Auto's foundation remains stable. The reverse fluctuations in the stock prices after the release of the financial reports are just a normal regression of the abnormal market sentiment in the past.

Although NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto have prepared ammunition for 2026, they are not the only ones. Leapmotor aims to double its sales target to 1 million vehicles in 2026. Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 80,000 vehicles in November, and Xiaomi is about to launch its new extended - range vehicle... Coupled with the fact that traditional automakers are embracing new - technology companies one after another, the development resistance of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto in the future remains significant.

He Xiaopeng, the chairman of XPeng Motors, predicted that the competition in the automotive market in 2026 will be even more brutal and bloody!

Which one of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto do you think will be the first to break through successfully in a more competitive environment?

This article is from the WeChat official account "Automotive Market Stories", author: Zhang Yuzhe, published by 36Kr with authorization.