Silver Stranglehold: The Photovoltaic Industry Is Forced to Launch a Breakout Battle in "Silver Reduction"

The German veteran company Heraeus has just decided to sell its photovoltaic silver paste business in China and Singapore, leaving this once lucrative market.

Silver Soars, Choking the Photovoltaic Industry

From silicon materials and quartz crucibles to silver now, the Chinese photovoltaic industry always seems to be looking for the next short - board that could "strangle" its development.

The photovoltaic industry is facing an extremely severe situation this year. As of December 1st, the spot silver price in London has hit a record high of $57.7 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of over 90%, far outperforming gold.

The photovoltaic industry calls this phenomenon the "backstab" of precious metals. Silver is no longer an ordinary auxiliary material but has become a key main material affecting the industry's development. Silver paste accounts for about 12% of the total cost of photovoltaic modules and more than 50% of the non - silicon cost of solar cells.

Compared with traditional P - type batteries, the silver consumption of the new N - type TOPCon batteries is about 30% - 40% higher, which exacerbates the already severe silver supply situation. The global silver market has been in short supply for several consecutive years, and there is still an expected supply - demand gap of about 3,660 tons in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) experienced an unexpected outage lasting several hours. Since the time coincided with the extreme silver market, there were even speculations in the market that the exchange "pulled the plug" to control risks.

In fact, the silver market is showing typical short - squeeze characteristics. Gu Fengda, the chief analyst at Guosen Futures, pointed out that the structural shortage of physical silver has not been fundamentally resolved, and the inventory of freely tradable silver spot is at a relatively low level.

Competition in Silver - Reduction Technology Routes

The crazy rise in silver prices has forced the photovoltaic manufacturing industry to launch a "silver - reduction revolution". Process optimization is the first step. Through the promotion and application of technologies such as multi - busbar and busbar - free, the industry has reduced the unit silver consumption by nearly 80% in the past three years.

With the development of technological iteration, the double - sided silver paste consumption of TOPCon batteries has decreased from 90 - 95mg/W in 2024 to 80 - 85mg/W in the third quarter of 2025.

More radical material substitution solutions are in the process of competing development. As the most mature industrialized route at present, silver - coated copper paste can significantly reduce raw material costs by coating a silver layer on the surface of copper powder and is basically compatible with existing production lines.

Leading enterprises such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. have reduced the silver consumption of HJT batteries by nearly 80% in three years through this technology. Huasheng New Energy's silver - coated copper powder has achieved a 15% silver content target and plans to further reduce the silver content to 10% in 2025.

Electroplated copper technology is regarded as a "ultimate solution" with great potential, which can achieve complete "silver - free". Aiko Solar has applied silver - free pure copper electrode technology to its ABC batteries.

However, the bottleneck of this technology lies in the huge equipment investment, complex process flow, and high yield challenges. Industry experts predict that electroplated copper technology is expected to achieve large - scale mass production from 2026 to 2027.

Pure copper paste aims to completely replace silver with copper, which is a more disruptive solution. The unique low - temperature process and TCO conductive film layer of heterojunction batteries enable the application of copper paste without the need to make an additional complex "seed layer", significantly simplifying the process.

Orient Rising achieved a key breakthrough in the test of its heterojunction Fuxi production line, reducing the silver consumption from 6mg/W to 0.5mg/W through pure copper paste technology.

Re - shaping the Industrial Chain Ecosystem and Survival Challenges

The technological changes triggered by silver are re - shaping the entire photovoltaic industrial chain ecosystem. Photovoltaic manufacturers are facing a difficult choice between "ensuring efficiency" and "reducing costs".

Should they immediately adopt the slightly inferior but cheaper silver - coated copper paste or wait for the better but immature electroplated copper technology? This decision is crucial for the survival of enterprises in the competition.

Silver paste enterprises are in a difficult position as they are in the "sandwich layer". They usually adopt the "sales - based procurement" model. With low gross profit margins, they have to bear the double squeeze of sharp silver price fluctuations and long payment terms from downstream customers.

Fierce market competition has forced some international giants to withdraw. Heraeus of Germany announced at the end of 2024 that it would sell its photovoltaic silver paste business in China and Singapore, which reflects the severe reality of the squeezed profit margins in the industry.

Domestic silver paste enterprises are also having a hard time. The net profit of Dico Co., Ltd. in the first half of 2025 decreased by 70.03% year - on - year, and the gross profit margin dropped to 7.86%. The semi - annual report of Juhe Materials in 2025 showed that the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 39.58% year - on - year.

High accounts receivable and capital chain pressure are like the Sword of Damocles hanging over these enterprises.

Meanwhile, equipment and material suppliers see new market opportunities. The huge market created by new types of paste is expected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2030. Whether it is the special equipment required for electroplated copper or the special additives and coated copper powder required for copper paste, they have opened up new tracks for forward - looking enterprises.

Upstream in the industrial chain, Chinese companies are also striving to break the monopoly. Guangxi Jianxing Guangyin New Material Technology Co., Ltd. has successfully produced ultra - fine silver powder particles with a diameter of only 1 to 2 microns, breaking the foreign technological monopoly. With similar performance parameters, the price of photovoltaic silver powder produced by independent processes is only one - third of the price of imported silver powder.

The silver price is still in a short - squeeze situation. In early December, the spot silver price in London broke through $57 per ounce for the first time during intraday trading. The one - month implied lease rate of silver spot once reached a high of 40.3% in October.

Gu Fengda, the chief analyst at Guosen Futures, said bluntly that the international precious metals market is facing historical structural short - squeeze pressure.

The photovoltaic industry has never paid such close attention to every fluctuation in the silver market as it does today. The technological iteration cycle that used to take three to five years is now being compressed to one or two years. For all photovoltaic enterprises, "silver reduction" is no longer an option but a survival test that must be passed.

The financial attribute of silver is pushing its price to an unpredictable height. For the photovoltaic industry, this "silver - reduction" competition is no longer a simple discussion of technological superiority but an extreme stress test related to survival. The iteration cycle that used to take several years is now compressed to one or two years, forcing all enterprises to make choices in the unknown. The ultimate winner is likely not to be the lucky one who bets on a certain technology route but the pragmatic one who finds the best balance between cost, speed, and reliability. There is no turning back in this breakthrough battle, only forward.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Cai Neng Quan". Author: Zhao Jianan. Republished by 36Kr with permission.