Lithium carbonate has returned to the 100,000 yuan mark. Should automakers panic?
There are signs of an impending storm in the new energy vehicle sector.
From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 33.1% and 32.7% respectively, continuing to maintain a high - growth trend. Among them, exports increased by 90.4% year - on - year, which is quite remarkable.
Correspondingly, the price increase wave in the upstream of the new energy vehicle industry is intensifying.
The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded from a dismal level to a more favorable one in just four or five months. Now it has returned to over 100,000 yuan per ton, and the speed of this change has caught the industry chain off - guard.
This means that price transmission is inevitable sooner or later, which is not good news for the highly competitive new energy vehicle industry. After all, the last sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices was a nightmare for car manufacturers.
Strangely enough, car manufacturers have remained silent in the face of the drastic changes in the upstream of the industry. What's the reason?
Upstream price increase, downstream price decrease
Lithium carbonate is known as the "grain" of new energy vehicles.
In November 2022, the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 600,000 yuan per ton, hitting a record high. At that time, the automotive industry complained a lot, and CATL became the target of criticism.
Zeng Qinghong, then chairman of GAC, bluntly pointed out: "Power batteries account for 60% of the cost of a car. Am I not working for CATL?"
Looking back, the high price of lithium carbonate disrupted the supply - demand balance of upstream lithium mining enterprises, impacted the production plans of mid - stream power battery enterprises, and disrupted the progress of downstream new energy vehicle manufacturers in breaking through the market.
Fortunately, the price of lithium carbonate has been declining since then and even fell below the industry - recognized break - even line.
Against this background, new energy vehicles have had continuous room for price concessions. The penetration rate has now exceeded 50%, achieving a successful overtaking of traditional fuel vehicles.
Unexpectedly, there are new fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market.
In November 2025, the price of the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate futures exceeded 100,000 yuan per ton, while the lowest price in June was only 58,500 yuan per ton. The price increased by more than 70% within a few months.
Breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark
As a result, the pressure has shifted to power battery enterprises.
This can be seen from CATL's financial report: In the third quarter of 2025, CATL's operating income was 104.186 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.90%; the net profit was 18.549 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.21%. However, the gross profit margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points compared with the second quarter.
In fact, small and medium - sized power battery enterprises are under greater pressure.
A supply - chain insider said in an interview with the media: "Now, the raw material cost of producing each battery is nearly 20% higher than it was six months ago."
Worse still, the expectation of a further price increase of lithium carbonate continues to rise.
Recently, Li Liangbin, chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, said: "If the demand growth rate exceeds 30% or even reaches 40% in 2026, and the supply cannot be balanced in the short term, the price may exceed 150,000 yuan per ton or even 200,000 yuan per ton."
In other words, there is a possibility that the price of lithium carbonate will double again.
Correspondingly, due to increasingly fierce competition, price cuts have become an inevitable measure for new energy vehicle manufacturers, resulting in a continuous decline in the average price of new energy vehicles year by year.
Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that the average prices of new energy vehicles from January to October in 2023, 2024, and 2025 were 183,000 yuan, 171,000 yuan, and 159,000 yuan respectively. In October 2025, the average price of new energy vehicles was 156,000 yuan, down from 158,000 yuan in the previous month.
Cui Dongshu, secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said: "The foundation for the recovery of the domestic economy is not yet solid. Problems such as insufficient effective demand and disorderly market competition still pose challenges, and the task of stabilizing growth in the industry remains arduous."
Source: WeChat official account of Cui Dongshu, secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association
As a result, the reshuffle of the new energy vehicle industry may accelerate.
In response, Gui Shengyue, an executive director of Geely Automobile, said: "The automotive market will start to weed out the weak in 2026. Without strong profitability, it will be very difficult to survive."
Idle production capacity restrains the upward momentum
There are two reasons behind the reversal of the lithium carbonate market.
On the one hand, some production capacity has been forced out.
In previous years, the profitability of lithium carbonate was obvious, and a large amount of capital poured in, leading to continuous expansion of the supply side. As the industry shifted from high - profit to loss, some enterprises had to stop or reduce production, thus improving the imbalance between supply and demand.
For example, the most ideal source of lithium carbonate is high - grade spodumene. However, spodumene resources are unevenly distributed, and domestic reserves cannot meet all the demand. Therefore, low - grade lepidolite has come into the industry's view, and lithium extraction from mica once accounted for about one - third of the production. As the cost line of lithium extraction from mica was broken, some production capacity was forced out.
On the other hand, downstream demand has been released intensively.
The halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles in 2026 has promoted pre - consumption and accelerated the production rhythm. Originally, the industry could handle it easily, but unexpectedly, the energy storage market is also booming. With the combined effect, there has been an intensive release of demand again.
Data from the High - tech Industry Research Energy Storage Research Institute shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, the total shipment of energy - storage lithium batteries in China was 430 GWh, exceeding 30% of the total in 2024. It is estimated that the total annual shipment is expected to reach 580 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67%, with a growth rate much higher than that of new energy vehicles.
The problem is that even when the production capacity of mid - stream enterprises is fully utilized, it is still not enough to meet the demand.
Due to the short cycle and fast cash flow of energy - storage projects, some mid - stream enterprises have adjusted their power battery production lines to energy - storage battery production lines, resulting in a local supply shortage of the former.
Sun Shaojun, founder of Chefans, said: "Recently, supply - chain allocation has been a big problem. Especially for core suppliers like CATL, the time for each brand to place orders is very tight. Now it's all about using personal connections."
As a result, the inventory of lithium carbonate has dropped to the lowest level in the past three years, and it is no wonder that the price has increased.
Source: High - tech Industry Research
Nevertheless, car manufacturers are not generally pessimistic.
This is closely related to the overall oversupply: In 2025, the global demand for lithium carbonate was 1.55 million tons, but the supply was as high as 1.7 million tons, with an overall surplus of 200,000 tons, which restrains the price increase to some extent.
More importantly, as the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, idle production capacity represented by lithium extraction from mica may resume production, thus increasing the supply.
Liu Qiyue, an analyst at Industrial Futures, said: "At present, the news about the resumption of production of CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine has continuously disturbed the market, increasing the uncertainty on the supply side."
Previously, in order to gain a competitive advantage and master the core voice in the industry, CATL has made large - scale investments in lithium mines in Africa, North America, South America, and China, thus forming an integrated approach.
"Huaxia Energy Network" once said: "Upstream enterprises are moving downstream, and downstream enterprises are charging upstream. Just like the relatively mature wind and photovoltaic new energy industries, integration is gradually becoming a trend in the lithium - battery industry. The battle for integration is becoming an important development direction in the lithium - battery industry."
Lithium extraction from mica is one of the directions that CATL is betting on.
However, due to various reasons, the world's largest lepidolite mine under CATL stopped production in 2025. Once the project resumes production, it will reduce external purchases, thereby suppressing the internal driving force for the price increase of lithium carbonate.
As can be seen from the above, companies like CATL have learned from the experience of the previous "ever - changing prices" of lithium carbonate and built a firewall for the downstream.
CATL's gross profit margin has declined year - on - year
In addition, the sustainability of the energy - storage market's pulling of lithium carbonate demand is also questionable.
"True Lithium Research" said: "In the long run, the growth of energy - storage battery demand for lithium carbonate only accounts for less than 25% of the global lithium carbonate market. The growth rate of lithium carbonate demand may decline in the fourth quarter of 2025."
That is to say, energy storage can only be a short - term interfering factor.
Moreover, the current supply shortage of power batteries is mainly reflected in mid - to - high - end models. Mid - to - high - end models have relatively large profit margins and relatively high cost - bearing capacity, so the impact is relatively controllable for now.
All in all, as a key raw material for new energy vehicles, the price of lithium carbonate has returned to over 100,000 yuan per ton, and the saying "With lithium, you can go anywhere; without lithium, you can't move an inch" has resurfaced. However, whether the price increase trend will continue needs further observation. After all, the industry chain needs a win - win situation rather than a single - win situation.
In any case, new energy vehicles should engage in a value war rather than a price war.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Zinc Scale" (ID: znkedu), author: Chen Dengxin, published by 36Kr with permission.