Apple emerged as the biggest winner during the Double 11 shopping festival, with the iPhone 17 series selling like hotcakes both online and offline.

In the context of market saturation and consumers extending their purchase cycles, global smartphone shipments in the first half of 2025 declined by 1% year-on-year, showing a weak trend.

The Wall Street Journal previously commented that 2025 was a year of strategic pressure for Apple CEO Tim Cook. The Trump administration's repeated adjustments to tariff policies on China not only pushed up the costs of Apple's supply chain, forcing the company to make difficult trade - offs in its global production capacity layout, but also plunged the helmsman of this tech giant into continuous uncertainty.

Under such circumstances, the previously under - rated Apple iPhone 17 series became a dark horse, with extremely hot sales after its launch. Especially in the Chinese market, its performance far exceeded expectations: the sales volume in the first 10 days increased by 14% year - on - year, and the shipments in the third quarter reached 10.1 million units, making it the only brand among the leading manufacturers to achieve positive growth. This encouraging situation also relieved the pressure on Cook.

Recently, Wall Street Tech Eye visited Apple's direct - sale stores in Xidan, Sanlitun, and Chaoyang Joy City in Beijing and found that even more than a month after the launch of the iPhone 17 series, there was still a continuous stream of people queuing up to buy.

According to industry sources, as of November 2, the activation volume of the iPhone 17 series in China exceeded 8.25 million units, among which the flagship model iPhone 17 Pro Max reached 3.95 million units. With the Double 11 promotion, it is certain that the sales volume of the iPhone 17 series will exceed 10 million units in the Chinese mainland market.

As the pioneer of smartphones, Apple's product strategy in recent years has been widely criticized, with constant complaints about "incremental updates" and "stagnant innovation".

In fact, the iPhone 17 series still doesn't have any major technological innovations. The reason for its hot sales is mainly that Apple has shortened the replacement cycle through "precise segmentation" and catering to differentiated demands.

Cook's Precise Segmentation Hits Consumers' Purchase Desire

Looking at the history of iPhone products, new designs are needed to drive a "super replacement cycle", such as the large - screen design of the iPhone 6 and the "notch screen" of the iPhone X.

However, as the smartphone industry has entered the mature stage and the pace of major technological updates has slowed down, Apple has been forced to extend the lifecycle of a core design. For example, the "notch screen" has been used for at least six years.

However, Apple needs to update its product line every year, and it's obviously not feasible without offering something new. So, splitting limited selling points or new designs and gradually implementing them in products is what is called "incremental updates" or "precise segmentation". This year, it is reflected in the 120Hz screen of the standard iPhone 17 and the back design of the Pro series.

Compared with the iPhone 16, the reason why the basic iPhone 17 is more popular is obvious - hardware upgrades. The 120Hz screen that netizens have been calling for for years has finally been introduced to the standard version, and the storage has been upgraded from 128GB to 256GB without a price increase (starting from 5,999 yuan). Coupled with the 500 - yuan national subsidy available in some areas, it has attracted users still using the iPhone 13/14 to replace their phones.

For users of the more expensive Pro series, with the front remaining unchanged, the replacement of the back panel material and the redesigned camera module have precisely captured consumers' psychology of seeking differentiation.

According to feedback from Apple direct - sale store clerks, the new back design of the iPhone 17 Pro series is one of the factors driving users to replace their phones.

Undoubtedly, Apple's iPhone product strategy in recent years is closely related to the leadership of CEO Tim Cook. In the 14 years since Cook became Apple's CEO, his greatest contribution has been the improvement of the supply chain. He has not only achieved simultaneous product launches in major global markets but also continuously enhanced Apple's voice in the supply chain, enabling it to obtain core components such as screens and memory at lower costs and achieve the highest profit margin in the mobile phone industry.

A UBI Research report shows that the manufacturing cost of the OLED panel used in the standard iPhone 17 is about $40 (approximately 285 yuan), which is cheaper and has better performance than the $65 cost of the standard iPhone 16 last year. This cost advantage has not only helped Apple achieve technological upgrades without raising product prices but also maintained a high profit margin.

Apple Dominates Double 11, Android Flagships Are Cold

With all these "advantages" combined, it's not surprising that the iPhone 17 series has become the best - selling Apple phone in recent years. According to the observation of market research firm Counterpoint, within the first ten days of the iPhone 17 series' launch (from September 17th to 27th), the combined sales and activation volume (Sell - Out) in China and the United States increased by 14% year - on - year. Among them, the sales of the basic models increased by 31% compared with the iPhone 16 series in the same period last year, and the sales of the Pro/Pro Max models increased by 12%.

During the first two weeks of October (from September 29th to October 12th), the sales of the iPhone 17 series further climbed, driving a 29% year - on - year increase in Apple's sales in the Chinese market. Since brands such as Huawei and vivo had not released their second - half - year flagship models at this time, there was a gap in competition. Huawei's activation volume decreased by 10% year - on - year.

Data on the activation volume of mobile phones in China in the first two weeks of October (Source: Counterpoint)

During the Double 11 period, Apple's competitive advantage further expanded, as reflected in the sales data of e - commerce platforms.

As of 9 a.m. on November 11th (starting from 0:00 on October 25th), the top three on the cumulative list of the "JD Mobile Phone 11.11 Racing List" were the iPhone 17 Pro Max, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17. Apple occupied half of the top ten positions, and the lowest starting price was 3,509.1 yuan. In contrast, the starting price of the Redmi K80, which ranked fifth in the Android camp, was 1,619.19 yuan, showing a huge gap in price premium. New Android flagship models such as the Xiaomi 17 Pro and vivo X300 only ranked within the top 20, highlighting Apple's absolute dominance in the high - end market.

In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 (as of September 27th), Apple's revenue in Greater China declined by 3.59% year - on - year, making it the only market among all regions globally with a revenue decline.

With the hot sales of the iPhone 17 series in the Chinese market, it is expected that Apple's revenue in Greater China will stop declining and start to rise in Q4. At the same time, Apple's market value has been continuously rising recently and has now reached $3.98 trillion, making it the world's second - largest listed company after NVIDIA.

iPhone Air Fails, and the Chinese - version AI Remains Unavailable

Even though the iPhone 17 series has achieved great success, Apple didn't have an all - smooth year in 2025. The iPhone Air, which was considered to have the most design innovation in recent years, failed to win consumers' favor, and its sales were extremely poor.

This phone uses a titanium alloy middle frame and a hot - bent glass back cover, with the thinnest part of the body being only 5.64mm, presenting an extremely thin and delicate feel. However, due to its prominent single - lens, the reduced battery life caused by the ultra - thin body, and the high starting price of 7,999 yuan, it doesn't meet the current consumers' needs.

According to Counterpoint data, within ten days of its launch in the United States, the activation volume of the iPhone Air only accounted for 3% of the total new phones, far from the 75% share of the Pro series. The iPhone Air was launched in the Chinese market one month later, but its sales didn't improve. According to industry data, as of early November, its activation volume was only about 100,000 units. Therefore, the failure of the iPhone Air is almost a foregone conclusion, and Apple has quickly responded by reducing production to minimize losses.

Citing a report from The Information, due to the poor sales of the iPhone Air, Apple has indefinitely postponed the release of the next - generation Air. At the same time, Foxconn has dismantled most of the production lines and will completely stop producing this model by the end of this month.

If the failure of the iPhone Air is just a misjudgment in product strategy, then Apple's lag in AI technology is the biggest potential threat that may affect its iOS "core market", after all, the system ecosystem is the core competitiveness driving Apple's hardware sales.

Apple's AI has been available in the international market for more than a year, and its overall reputation is mediocre. Functions such as AI photo editing and object recognition in the camera integrated into the system have already been realized in the Android field and haven't brought a differentiated experience. At the same time, the upgraded Siri with AI capabilities has been delayed in its launch, slowing down the overall process of iPhone's AI transformation.

The bigger problem is that Apple's progress in bringing AI to the Chinese market is significantly behind. Previously, there were reports that Apple had chosen Baidu and Alibaba to jointly promote its Chinese - version AI business, but the relevant technology integration and compliance progress have been slow. Cook said during his recent visit to China: "We are working hard to promote (the AI business). There is a very specific regulatory process behind this, and we need to go through it. We also hope to bring it to Chinese consumers as soon as possible."

Combined with previous reports from Bloomberg, the Chinese - version AI is expected to be launched with the iOS 26.4 version, which means it will be at least until the spring of 2026.

The Mobile Phone Battle in 2026 Is Imminent, and Apple's Folding Phone Is Ready

With more than a month left until the end of this year, the mobile phone market in 2026 is already heating up. Based on current information, there will be at least three major highlights in the mobile phone market next year: Apple's iPhone 18 and folding - screen phones, the mass production of 2nm chips, and the new form of AI phones, which are expected to further boost the market's prosperity.

Currently, preliminary information about the iPhone 18 series has been exposed, and the main design changes are concentrated on the "Dynamic Island". This design was first introduced in the iPhone 14 Pro series launched in 2022 and is in urgent need of an upgrade. However, due to the immature under - screen technology, Apple can only choose to reduce the size of the opening for an upgrade. In addition, Apple may also bring new configurations such as a variable - aperture main camera and a steel - shell battery to the 18 Pro series.

Compared with the iPhone 18, Apple's folding - screen phone may be more worth looking forward to. According to the disclosure of Apple supply chain analyst Ming - Chi Kuo, Apple is currently planning to start trial production at Foxconn in Q4 this year, but the specifications of many parts have not been finalized, including the hinge (which represents whether Apple can improve the problem of folding creases), which the market is most concerned about. In addition, Samsung is expected to build a dedicated folding - screen production line for Apple, with an estimated annual production capacity of 7 - 8 million units. However, due to the limited actual production time in 2026, the first batch of products will be in short supply, and the price may be as high as $1,999 (approximately 14,233 yuan). Ming - Chi Kuo also emphasized that anything can change before the official start of production.

Conceptual image of Apple's folding - screen phone

From the perspective of the entire market, with the mass production of TSMC's 2nm process technology, the competition for the "first - to - market phone" in the next round is about to start. As a major customer of TSMC, Apple doesn't need to worry about the production volume of its A20 chips. However, Android brands need to compete for the first - to - market rights of Qualcomm's 2nm chips. The domestic competition will take place among major manufacturers such as Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO, and the survival space for flagship phones of small manufacturers will be further compressed.

Another thing worth noting is the exploration of the form of AI phones by manufacturers. Previously, Honor officially announced that it will bring a new product, the RobotPhone, to the MWC communication exhibition early next year. This phone boldly integrates an AI - driven robotic arm camera into the body to achieve interactive and self - shooting experiences. Although there has been no successful case of this kind in the industry before, from an innovative perspective, this is the beginning of domestic phones no longer chasing the "look - like - iPhone" trend. As for whether this solution can succeed, the market will ultimately give an answer. (Extended reading: Honor, eager for an IPO, starts "unconventional innovation")

Consumers may be more concerned about mobile phone prices. According to data, the average global price of smartphones is expected to rise by 5% in 2025, mainly due to the increase in component prices, and this phenomenon is still continuing and even becoming more severe.

Recently, TSMC announced a comprehensive price increase for its 2/3/5nm processes, with a 50% increase for the 2nm process. At the same time, due to the tight supply of memory chips caused by AI infrastructure construction, Samsung and SK Hynix announced that they will raise the prices of DRAM and NAND flash memory.