Tengyan Dialogue with Overseas Experts: We're Likely Heading Towards a "Jobless Society"
This article is compiled based on the sharing of Alan Macfarlane, a Fellow of the British Academy, a professor of anthropology at the University of Cambridge, and a Life Fellow of King's College, in the face-to-face series of dialogues with overseas experts of Tencent Research Institute. The theme of the sharing is "A New World is Born: Some consequences of the AI Revolution".
The AI revolution after the Industrial Revolution may herald the birth of a brand - new world
From Alan Turing to Geoffrey Hinton, Cambridge has always made significant contributions to the development of the AI field. Nowadays, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence, more and more people are starting to think about a question: Are we stepping into a "new world" in the true sense?
No one knows the answer to this question. Some people believe that AI has been over - hyped and its commercial potential has been overestimated. Nevertheless, I think the impact of AI in other aspects may still be very significant.
When I interviewed Hermann Hauser recently, he once said: "I think the most appropriate way to analyze the AI revolution is to compare it with the previous Industrial Revolution." Looking back at history, we have experienced two epoch - making revolutions: the first was the birth of civilization more than ten thousand years ago, and the second was the Industrial Revolution. Now, we may be standing on the threshold of the third major revolution - the AI revolution. Undoubtedly, we are witnessing a technological revolution. It may be difficult to see its impact and consequences clearly at present, but when we look back in 2030, we will see what has happened.
Of course, borrowing the words of Demis Hassabis: "The impact of AI on humanity is likely to be ten times that of the Industrial Revolution, and it may also happen ten times faster." Therefore, we really need to figure out what is happening now and what will happen in the future.
The essence of this revolution continues the role that technology has always played: expanding human capabilities. In the past few thousand years, technology has mainly replaced the physical parts of the human body - arms, legs, backs, etc., and as time goes by, more and more body functions have been replaced. The Industrial Revolution pushed this process to the extreme. Steam engines, electricity, and various power sources that appeared later greatly improved the efficiency of human labor. And today, the emergence of AI marks that the direction of technology expanding human capabilities has shifted from the "body" (body) to the "mind" (head). As Hermann Hauser said, the Industrial Revolution brought "power on demand". Then, the AI revolution allows us to have "intelligence on demand", that is, to obtain the required amount of knowledge or thinking efficiency as needed.
China is at the center of this AI transformation. Shenzhen is known as the Silicon Valley of China and also the City of Drones. In my new book "The Mystery of Shenzhen", I try to decode the technological innovation in Shenzhen and propose a triangular relationship (triangle) of technological and knowledge growth. "Discovery" brings "macro - invention", which in turn promotes mass production, and this in turn leads to more discoveries, and so on in a cycle. For AI, the operation of this triangular relationship is accelerating continuously and cannot be stopped. Technological and scientific growth is now exponential. Machines self - replicate, discover new things, and manufacture new machines, and everything is accelerating continuously.
However, many current discussions about AI and its impact are rather narrow, only focusing on the material level. Looking back at the Industrial Revolution from an anthropological perspective: it not only changed the way people work, but also reshaped people's lifestyles, thinking patterns, family structures, and even religious beliefs. In short, it changed everything in human society. Similarly, the AI revolution is not just an economic change, but may be a social change. It is very likely to change and is changing everything in our world.
When we are in the middle of it, it is often difficult for us to see the whole picture. We can't jump out of the situation like an experimenter and observe calmly. We can only grope forward in this change, experiencing and trying to understand at the same time. Maybe decades later, when we look back, we will really understand what it has changed. But now, let's make an assumption: if we stand on Mars or a distant planet and overlook the world on Earth, maybe we can see some of the impacts of this AI revolution more clearly. It is permeating our lives in a quiet but ubiquitous way, reshaping the connections between people, rewriting the basic structure of society, and even changing the way humans understand themselves and perceive the world.
In the following content, I will try to depict some possible consequences of this AI revolution. It is not a prediction of the future, nor is there a specific logical order, but to provide some perspectives and assumptions. I hope it can help us more clearly realize that what we are experiencing may not just be the emergence of a new technology, but the birth of a brand - new world.
Work, education, and creativity: When AI makes people "have nothing to do", how should we survive?
(1) The AI society may bring about the rise of the "leisure class"
One possible impact of AI is the elimination of most professional jobs. Historically, we have witnessed how mechanization reshaped agriculture and how industrialization reduced the demand for labor in the manufacturing industry. It can be said that both blue - collar and white - collar jobs have been greatly reduced or even replaced by technology. And this time, the wave of AI is also targeting professional occupations. A professional, with the help of several AIs, may be able to complete the work of a team. A university, a company, or even a government department may more or less operate with "one person + one hundred AIs". We can imagine that in the next 5 - 10 years, there may not be a need for so many professionals such as doctors. Ten people can do the work of a hundred, and one or two people can supervise the operation of a large number of intelligent machines, etc. Organizations such as universities and enterprises may disappear within 100 years. Therefore, a possible consequence of this AI revolution is that most professional jobs may be destroyed by AI.
The next question to think about is, if most people "don't need to work" in the future, what should we do? Imagine such a scenario: you only need to work one day a week and have enough living security, and you will have six days of leisure in a week. But during the rest of the time, you have no tasks and no goals. How will you arrange yourself? In other words, what should we do with the large amount of extra time outside of work?
At first, it may be excitement: freedom has finally arrived. But then, it may be confusion or even pain. Many retirees have experienced this state in advance: once the routine of daily work suddenly disappears, many people will fall into emptiness, loss, and even depression. The coming of the AI revolution means that we and our descendants have to start preparing for how to deal with almost infinite leisure. In other words, we need to make plans for the arrival of the "leisure world".
Optimistically speaking, there are precedents for such a state in history. All great civilizations have had a "leisure class". Monks in monasteries had nothing to do but pray. Religious people in India, senators in Rome, and nobles in Britain also didn't need to work. The difference is that in the past, maybe only 1% of the population was like this, while in the future AI society, almost everyone will be such a "leisure person". For example, the British nobles in the 18th century woke up every day to have gardeners take care of the garden and chefs prepare meals, while they themselves hunted, rode horses, tasted wine, traveled, wrote poems, and painted. The education they received from childhood was not for "finding a job to make a living", but for "living a cultured life". At that time, the purpose of the University of Cambridge was originally to teach people to be "good life - makers" and to cultivate people to live a "leisure life" and spend their lives in a creative way. In the future, perhaps the AI society will bring about the rise of the "leisure class", and each of us will become such a "leisure person", with a large amount of extra time to enjoy a leisure life, a creative and meaningful life, rather than boring and cumbersome work.
(2) Education in the AI era will shift from "cultivating the labor force" to "teaching people to live"
Is our education ready for an era when self - worth is no longer defined by "work"? What we need to teach the next generation may no longer be "how to find a job", but how to live a creative and meaningful life without being trapped by cumbersome and stressful work. In the past, education was that one teacher taught the whole class, and everyone progressed at the same pace. In the future, education will encourage everyone to discover their own passions and develop their own creativity. We are entering an era of "independent learning". AI and the Internet have greatly reduced the threshold and cost of learning, and anyone can independently learn everything they are interested in. The core task of education will also change from making people qualified laborers to cultivating people to stimulate and enjoy their own potential to enjoy a good life. Of course, with the development of AI, future education needs to strike a balance in the four basic aspects of the body, mind, heart, spirit, or imagination.
(3) The creativity of AI will challenge the unique value of humanity
But the problem is that when we pin our hopes on "creativity", AI has not stopped there. Now, AI has shown amazing abilities in fields such as painting, composing music, designing, and writing novels, which are considered to rely on human creativity. It is foreseeable that most creative activities can be largely replaced by AI. The creations of AI can reach the level of great masters such as Beethoven, Leonardo da Vinci, and Shakespeare, and cannot be distinguished by humans. Therefore, even painters, writers, composers, and musicians have to start thinking about a question: When AI can better complete most of your creations, what does the identity of an "artist" still mean? Maybe many artists no longer create on their own, but create with the help of AI or together with AI.
Distribution system and intellectual property rights: When "scarcity" is no longer scarce, how should we distribute?
(4) The "job - less society" brought about by AI will impact traditional social contracts such as the distribution system
In the past, the economic operation of human society was based on a basic consensus: the rewards you get depend on what you do. From the agricultural era to today, people have "earned rewards through work".
However, as artificial intelligence penetrates into the underlying logic of social operation, this concept of distribution is facing unprecedented challenges. As mentioned above, we are very likely moving towards a "job - less society". It doesn't mean that all jobs will disappear, but the traditional model of "earning income through mental or physical labor" will be challenged.
On the positive side, machines may be able to supply us with everything we want, including agricultural and industrial products, and the whole world may become richer. But the problem follows: in the case that machines may create such huge wealth, how should we distribute this wealth?
One assumption is that everyone can get a "basic minimum income" (such as UBI) that can reasonably guarantee their lives, including housing, food, etc. Everyone will get something like a coupon. On this basis, if someone wants to get more, they can get more rewards through additional creative labor or other activities. But we still need to rethink the entire economic system. The market - economy model expounded by Adam Smith basically fails in this situation.
(5) The "affluent society"/"post - scarcity era" brought about by AI may also continue the unequal structure
An optimistic prediction is that AI will bring unprecedented resource abundance, and humanity will enter an affluent society or a post - scarcity era. However, on the other hand, the economic benefits brought about by AI may also be concentrated in the hands of specific social groups. In the past five to ten years, our experience has been quite negative (such as what happened in the fields of Bitcoin and blockchain). The gap between the super - rich and ordinary people has widened sharply and is still widening. This kind of situation also happened during the Industrial Revolution. This is the reason why Marx wrote "Das Kapital": he saw that those who controlled the means of production would become extremely rich, while the rest of the people would become poor. The AI divide will stand between the few who control the AI system and everyone else, and it is difficult to cross. So there is also a possible scenario: the few who control AI and intelligent means of production may enjoy unimaginable living conditions, while the rest of the people will be marginalized.
(6) In the AI era, "shared creativity" may restructure the intellectual property system
At the same time, we also need to consider the changes in the intellectual property system. Since the concept of "copyright" was invented in the UK, we have formed a deep - rooted concept: if someone comes up with a good idea, they can have exclusive rights to it and prohibit others from infringing. But in the AI era, what does this mean? As shown in today's global supply chain, in the economic field, it is very difficult to define who a product belongs to, because it is assembled by the best combination of parts and technologies from all over the world. In the AI era, most creations may quote and integrate the intellectual property rights of countless others, and an individual's contribution may be only a very small part and difficult to identify. Therefore, it may be difficult to say "this is my work" or "this is what I completed". All creativity will gradually become a kind of "common property" in a certain sense. Therefore, in the world of AI, it will be very difficult to identify, define, and protect individual intellectual property rights.
Social relationship structure: How will the relationships between people and between people and AI evolve?
(7) AI accelerates the "decentralization" of social activities again
Before the Industrial Revolution, humans lived in a "decentralized" world. The most typical example is weaving. People used hand - looms at home to weave small pieces of cloth, and then someone would come to collect and pack them, and then take them to the market to sell. At that time, most production was carried out in a decentralized way in various villages and households.
During the Industrial Revolution, people realized that if they concentrated people together, they could achieve huge economies of scale. So, we had factories that gathered all workers together, hospitals that gathered the sick together, large schools that gathered the educated together, large prisons that gathered prisoners together, etc. Everything became more efficient. All this happened in the 19th century.
However, when future historians look back at our era, they may say that the era of "institutional organization" covering various fields of human activities ended in the 2020 COVID - 19 pandemic. We realized that everything could be "decentralized" again, such as remote work and online teaching. In fact, the pandemic just made a trend that had already started around 2000 when the Internet was developing more obvious. We are very likely moving towards a decentralized world in all aspects.
It is foreseeable that healthcare will be completely transformed by AI. For example, IoT devices such as smart bracelets can monitor an individual's health status daily; a locally trained person can handle most diseases with the help of a computer, and only one or two hospitals need to be set up to handle very serious cases, and most hospitals will become unnecessary; human lifespan will also be extended by AI. Each child will have a tablet or a computer and conduct personalized learning, and schools will disappear. Social behaviors and relationships related to crime may be changed. Instead of locking up criminals, they can be given a small device like a watch to monitor their behavior, and prisons will disappear. Basically, all kinds of activities will be decentralized and privatized.
(8) We are entering a world where we co - exist with the "new AI species", and we need to handle the relationship between humans and AI well
We are also entering a world where we co - exist (co - habit) with other species, and this is one of the reasons why the AI revolution is such a major revolution. For thousands of years, humans have been the only dominant species on this planet, and now we have to face another new species, that is, artificial intelligence. We have to consider our relationship with it, involving our legal, ethical, and moral systems, as well as our intellectual or emotional relationships. This new species overlaps and is similar to us in many aspects, although not in a biological sense, but it may have a certain emotional structure and ethical considerations, etc.
Of course, all our social relationships with others will be deeply affected, even touching the most private emotional fields, such as love and marriage. A notable social impact is that AI can deal with the problem of loneliness. "Semi - human" AI devices can provide emotional value. For example, AI pets can replace real pets, and robots can accompany the elderly, etc. Nowadays, many young people have doubts about marriage and have difficulty finding an ideal partner. In the AI era, perhaps people can "set" the type of partner they want, and they will be "produced". This change will force us to re - ask the questions "what is a human being" and "who are we" in an unprecedented way. And we must think about whether we are ready to co - exist with another species.
Global pattern: What kind of changes will the AI revolution bring to the world?
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