The price of unmanned delivery vehicles has dropped from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands of yuan, and a battle for market share has begun.

Unmanned delivery vehicles are no longer rare exhibits in the laboratory. They are increasingly making their way into the lives of ordinary people, not only shuttling through the streets and alleys of cities but also being seen on the asphalt roads of counties and towns.

These vehicles have no drivers but can avoid obstacles in complex road conditions. They don't need breaks and can deliver goods around the clock, rain or shine, completing the entire process of picking up and delivering goods. Moreover, they are extremely eye - catching and attract crowds wherever they go.

Data from the State Post Bureau shows that as of the end of 2024, the cumulative large - scale application of unmanned delivery vehicles in express logistics had just exceeded 6,000 units. However, just one year later, in 2025, several unmanned vehicle companies such as Neolix and Jiushi have announced or are about to cross the threshold of 10,000 unit deliveries, indicating a rapid market growth.

This transformation at the end of the logistics chain is rewriting the rules of the "last mile" delivery.

In Shunyi District, Beijing, Meituan has launched a combined delivery model of riders and unmanned vehicles. After users place orders, unmanned vehicles first transport bulk orders to transfer stations, and then riders complete the "last 100 meters" of door - to - door delivery. In Huangdao District, Qingdao, unmanned delivery vehicles only need to make two round - trips a day to transport all the parcels from the express distribution center to the stores and stations.

Behind all this, tech giants and startups are fiercely competing in the unmanned delivery field. On one hand, the technology is constantly being upgraded; on the other hand, the commercial implementation is being refined. A revolution that will change the future of the logistics industry is unfolding.

01

Price Drops by 90%, from Hundreds of Thousands to Tens of Thousands per Unit

Unmanned delivery vehicles are quietly establishing a foothold at the end of the logistics chain, especially in short - distance deliveries between distribution points and end - stores or stations, gradually becoming new helpers in the express delivery industry.

The key factor behind the rapid entry of unmanned delivery vehicles into the end - market of logistics and their becoming a new industry hotspot is the significant drop in their prices. The price has decreased from hundreds of thousands of yuan per unit in the early days to tens of thousands of yuan now, a drop of nearly 90%. After the price became more affordable, they were able to quickly gain a foothold in short - distance deliveries.

A 2021 report on unmanned delivery by EqualOcean Intelligence mentioned that the hardware cost of an autonomous end - delivery vehicle was about 300,000 - 500,000 yuan. In 2021, Chentao Capital's research showed that the overall cost of an unmanned delivery vehicle was 200,000 - 250,000 yuan. At that time, the high cost discouraged most express delivery companies, and only a few carried out pilot projects.

However, this year, the price of unmanned delivery vehicles has dropped further. In May this year, Jiushi Intelligence released its first model in the E - series, the E6, with a price of 19,800 yuan. One month later, Cainiao launched a new unmanned vehicle, the GT - Lite, priced at 21,800 yuan, and after a limited - time discount, it could be as low as 16,800 yuan.

After the price became more affordable, the practical value of unmanned delivery vehicles quickly became prominent in actual operations.

A staff member at an express sorting center in Beijing told Tech Planet that the core function of unmanned delivery vehicles is to shuttle between the sorting center and the end of the community. "It directly delivers the goods to the community or the nearby station. After the courier picks up the goods in the community and then delivers them door - to - door, it saves the courier's time traveling back and forth to the sorting center, greatly improving efficiency."

This convenience has also been recognized by the staff at express stations. The operation process of unmanned delivery vehicles is very simple: remotely unlock to receive the goods, quickly unload the goods to complete the handover, and confirm and then start the vehicle with one key to let it return autonomously. Without the need for special personnel to guide, the fully automated operation greatly improves the efficiency of the end - receiving process.

"It's a bit like the service robots in hotels. As soon as it arrives at the station, I can receive the verification code. After entering the verification code, the car door unlocks directly. After unloading the goods and confirming the pick - up, the vehicle will leave automatically. It's very convenient and intelligent."

For this reason, in recent years, express delivery companies such as SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, J&T Express, and Yunda Express have accelerated the introduction of unmanned delivery vehicles. According to the statistics of Guohai Securities, currently, ZTO Express has put about 1,000 vehicles into use, YTO Express has nearly 500 vehicles, Yunda Co., Ltd. has more than 100 vehicles, and STO Express has more than 200 vehicles.

In addition, in April this year, ZTO Express cooperated with Neolix and plans to deploy 10,000 unmanned vehicles in the future. SF Holding has put more than 800 vehicles into use and expects the scale of unmanned vehicles to expand to 8,000 in 2025.

Many express delivery practitioners said that as the technology matures further, in the next 3 to 5 years, if the cost of unmanned delivery vehicles drops below 10,000 yuan and they cover more end - scenarios, the work mode of couriers will also be upgraded.

02

Capital Bets Heavily, Leading Enterprises Rush to Expand Their Market Share

While Robotaxi is still cautiously exploring in urban road tests, the unmanned delivery field has broken the deadlock of "good in theory but poor in practice" and has become a favorite in the eyes of capital with more practical implementation value.

An investor focusing on the autonomous driving field said that compared with the huge infrastructure investment of billions and the long cycle of perfecting regulations for Robotaxi, unmanned delivery vehicles focus on short - distance scenarios of the "last few kilometers". They can bring a sense of novelty to the market with their high - tech features and directly solve the pain points of high labor costs and low delivery efficiency for end - stations and distribution points. Their practical value is obvious, so they naturally become the preferred option for capital investment.

The enthusiastic capital investment is fully reflected in the financing results of leading enterprises in 2025.

In February this year, Neolix completed a Series C+ financing of 1 billion yuan. Then, on October 23rd, Neolix announced the completion of a Series D financing of more than 600 million US dollars (equivalent to about 4.272 billion yuan). Jiushi Intelligence also secured nearly 300 million US dollars in Series B financing this year. White Rhino received 200 million yuan in Series B financing.

In less than a year, the total financing of the three leading enterprises exceeded 7 billion yuan, far exceeding the financing scale of some Robotaxi companies in the same period, indicating the strong capital - attracting ability of this field.

The influx of capital has directly ignited the "territory war" among leading players, and news of implementation and application has been frequently reported.

In April this year, ZTO Express Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Neolix, and the two parties plan to invest 10,000 unmanned delivery vehicles. In July, STO Express Co., Ltd. reached a strategic cooperation with Cainiao's unmanned vehicles to accelerate the large - scale application of unmanned delivery. JD Logistics announced that it will purchase 1 million unmanned vehicles and 100,000 drones in the next five years.

These frequent cooperation projects are not only about enterprises expanding their market share but also bring real benefits to end - stations.

According to the official account of SF Group, Shandong SF has put a total of 52 unmanned delivery vehicles into use in 10 cities in western Shandong. Among them, 48 vehicles are used in the direct - transfer scenario. Each vehicle makes 5 round - trips per day on average, travels 6,240 kilometers per day, and transports 80,000 express parcels. The cost per parcel has decreased by 1.32 yuan, and the efficiency has increased by 30%.

A staff member at an express station in Beijing calculated an account for Tech Planet. If the vehicle purchase cost is 120,000 yuan (including full - cycle FSD service) and it is used for 5 years, the daily cost of an unmanned vehicle is 66 yuan. Plus the electricity cost, the daily cost does not exceed 80 yuan.

Compared with the traditional manual delivery model, such a cost advantage is quite attractive to end - stations. "As the technology matures in the future, the cost may continue to decrease," the above - mentioned staff member said.

03

After Delivering 10,000 Units, the "Cost - Reduction" Battle Begins

The vast market space of unmanned delivery vehicles provides strong support for the industry's development.

According to the calculation of China Merchants Securities, based on the number of express logistics distribution points across the country, the market space for unmanned delivery vehicles is about 468 billion yuan; based on the number of residential communities across the country, the market space is between 546 billion yuan and 728 billion yuan.

In the industry, an operating scale of 10,000 units has become a consensus, which is the "critical point" for unmanned delivery vehicles to move from experimentation to large - scale application. Currently, Jiushi Intelligence and Neolix have completed the delivery of their 10,000th unit.

In the view of many industry practitioners, only by reaching this scale can enterprises break through the dilemma of "small - batch production and high cost" and form a positive cycle of "cost reduction through technology, in - depth verification of scenarios, expansion of order scale, and further cost reduction", truly opening the door to commercialization.

However, after crossing the 10,000 - unit threshold, industry competition has intensified, and the overall environment of the logistics industry is forcing unmanned delivery enterprises to accelerate cost reduction.

According to China Merchants Securities, from January to May 2025, the national express delivery volume increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 78.8 billion pieces, but the unit price decreased by 8.2% year - on - year to 7.5 yuan, showing the characteristics of "increasing volume and decreasing price". Enterprises' sensitivity to cost control has reached a new height.

From the perspective of cost structure, end - delivery has become the core breakthrough point for cost reduction. Taking SF Holding, a direct - operated express delivery company, as an example, in 2024, the labor and transportation costs per parcel accounted for 84% of the company's total cost per parcel.

The core value of unmanned delivery vehicles lies in replacing human labor in the "last five kilometers", becoming the key to "reducing the overall logistics cost of society". This also means that the hardware and operating costs of unmanned delivery vehicles must continue to decline to truly have the ability to replace traditional delivery methods commercially.

This is more prominent in applications in different regions. A person in charge of an express sorting center in Shandong told Tech Planet that compared with big cities where labor costs are relatively high and the cost - effectiveness of replacing human labor with unmanned delivery vehicles is more obvious, small cities still have difficulty in large - scale use of unmanned delivery vehicles to replace human labor. The core reason is that the cost has not dropped to a level that can match the local labor cost.

This also confirms from the side that the cost - reduction battle of unmanned delivery vehicles is not only related to the overall commercialization process of the industry but also determines whether they can break through regional limitations and achieve broader market penetration.

Early unmanned delivery vehicles relied on lidar and high - computing - power platforms, and the cost was once very high. However, with the decline in lidar prices, the improvement of bargaining power brought by bulk purchases, and the maturity of domestic automotive - grade chips and the progress of computing - power optimization algorithms, the overall vehicle manufacturing cost has been directly reduced.

And this cost - reduction potential continues. The above - mentioned investor said that just like the previous cost - reduction path on the hardware side, there is still significant room for optimization in the current market: "As sales volume further increases, the previously relatively fixed software development costs and operating costs will be spread over more orders, which will become an important direction for the next round of cost reduction."

This article is from the WeChat official account "Tech Planet" (ID: tech618), author: Ren Xueyun, published by 36Kr with authorization.