Has China Seized the First-Mover Advantage in the Next Trillion-Dollar Market?
"You're not driving too fast; you're flying too low!"
Friends of a certain age may have heard the above joke. Unexpectedly, just over a decade later, "cars flying low" will no longer be just a joke!
At the 2025 Dubai GITEX exhibition that opened on October 13th, XPeng HT received the first batch of 600 orders for flying cars in the Middle East, setting the largest overseas bulk order record in this field. So far, XPeng HT's "Land Aircraft Carrier" has cumulatively received over 7,000 orders globally.
Whether it's a single order of 600 units or a cumulative total of 7,000 units, XPeng HT's "Land Aircraft Carrier" has set a new record in the history of world flying cars.
If the airworthiness certification process goes smoothly, this split-type flying car will be officially launched in the market in the first half of 2026. Is the era of flying cars really coming?
How big is the market space?
What is a flying car? In a narrow sense, it refers to eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft). In a broad sense, it can include all vehicles that can transition from two-dimensional ground traffic to three-dimensional low-altitude traffic.
To put it simply, any vehicle that can run on the road and fly in the sky counts.
(Rendering of eVTOL)
During the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, a group of tourists taking "flying taxis" deeply felt the value of flying cars. On a route that takes more than two hours by car, it only takes about 30 minutes for a flying car to fly there.
Currently, the global eVTOL market is showing a rapid growth trend. In 2024, the global market size reached $12 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of over 35%.
The Chinese market is particularly outstanding. In 2024, the scale of the low-altitude economy exceeded 500 billion yuan. As the core carrier of the low-altitude economy, eVTOL has also grown rapidly.
According to the prediction of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in 2025, the market scale of China's low-altitude economy will reach 1.5 trillion yuan, and it is expected to exceed 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035.
So, what does the low-altitude economy include?
It mainly includes drones, flying cars, helicopters, small fixed-wing aircraft, etc., covering multiple scenarios such as municipal management, consumer consumption, transportation, logistics and distribution, and agricultural plant protection.
Helicopters and small fixed-wing aircraft are mature products that have been developed for decades, and there is limited room for future imagination. The main support for future development will still be drones and flying cars.
(Drone)
In 2024, the sales volume of Chinese drones accounted for over 70% of the global market, and China has become one of the main producers and exporters in the global drone market.
Judging from XPeng HT's recent acquisition of the world's largest order of 600 units, Chinese enterprises are also expected to become the main force in the flying car market in the future.
The industry expects that 2026, when XPeng HT's "Land Aircraft Carrier" is planned to be launched, will also be the "first year" of the eVTOL market explosion!
Where are the main market challenges?
The history of flying cars has exceeded 100 years.
As early as 1917, American engineer Glenn Curtiss built the world's first flying car. Of course, it didn't really fly. In 1946, Robert Fulton Jr. designed and test - flew the world's first flying car with airworthiness certification.
(The world's first flying car with airworthiness certification, Airphibian, designed and test - flown by Robert Fulton)
In 2012, the prototype of the flying car developed by Terrafugia Transition in the United States completed its first test flight.
Coincidentally, in the same year, Tesla Model S was launched into the market. Embarrassingly, Tesla has now become the world's highest - valued car company, while Terrafugia has not launched any products yet.
(Prototype of the flying car developed by Terrafugia)
Why has the development of flying cars been so difficult? Because there are simply too many challenges.
First of all, flying cars need to solve the problem of endurance. Since eVTOL starts with "e", it is obviously also an electric vehicle. However, it consumes much more energy than ordinary electric vehicles. The problems of "short endurance, low load - carrying capacity, and slow energy replenishment" have seriously hindered the development of the industry.
Secondly, it also has to face the test of "safety". Flying cars need to withstand various loads such as aerodynamic force, gravity, and inertial force, and also ensure durability and impact resistance when running on the ground. Once something goes wrong with this thing, it is likely to cause serious accidents both in the air and on the ground. Whether it's fault diagnosis, safety redundancy, or active and passive protection and rescue, the requirements are much higher than those of ordinary cars.
In addition, regulations are also an unavoidable topic. As a new type of vehicle, there is currently a lack of unified airworthiness certification standards and specifications for flying cars globally.
At the same time, the operation of flying cars also involves airspace management and infrastructure issues.
Flying cars need to be integrated with the existing air traffic management system, reasonably plan flight routes, altitudes, and areas to avoid conflicts with other aircraft, and also avoid privacy leakage and information problems. You can't let people easily fly outside the windows of competing companies to steal core secrets or fly outside people's windows to peep.
Flying cars also need the support of physical and information infrastructure. Relevant manufacturers need to jointly plan take - off and landing points and frequencies with partners and local governments, and also solve problems such as aircraft scheduling, local business management, and the construction of a scheduling center.
In the view of Xue Peng, the vice - president of EHang, without take - off and landing points, a scheduling system, and an operating ecosystem, a flying car is just an "exhibit".
Finally, we also have to consider the issue of "money".
Flying cars are still a "toy for the rich" - XPeng HT's "Land Aircraft Carrier" with an order price of 2 million yuan is already considered cheap. The single - unit purchase price of the AE200 under VoFlyTech, a company built by Geely after acquiring Terrafugia, reaches tens of millions of yuan, which is beyond the reach of ordinary people.
(VoFlyTech AE200)
The difficulty in reducing the price means a small market space. But if the price comes down, the losses will be too severe. The issue of "money" will still be an important factor restricting the development of the industry in the next few years.
The above are just a rough overview of some problems. If we go into details, we won't be able to finish talking from today to tomorrow.
Why is China favored?
Although there are many problems, Morgan Stanley still predicts that by 2040, the global urban air mobility market will reach $1.5 trillion, and China is expected to account for 30% of the market share.
Why China?
Because the Chinese market has huge policy advantages, market advantages, and industrial chain advantages.
In terms of policy, in March 2024, "low - altitude economy" was written into the "Government Work Report" of the State Council. In July of the same year, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to "develop general aviation and the low - altitude economy".
According to incomplete statistics, throughout 2024, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China have written "low - altitude economy" into their 2024 government work reports.
Needless to say about the market advantages. China not only has a large population but also has the world's most dense urban agglomerations and the most dense floating population between cities, which provides broad market space and strong development potential for the large - scale commercialization of flying cars.
How can the industrial chain advantages be reflected?
At the TEDA Auto Forum held in September, Zheng Jialiang, the deputy general manager of GAC GaoYu, pointed out that about 70% - 80% of the industrial chain, supply chain, and production and manufacturing links of flying cars can utilize the existing foundation of new energy and intelligent connected vehicles. This includes key aspects such as the three - electric system, thermal management technology, and lightweight technology.
China is the world's largest market for intelligent electric vehicles. Whether it's market scale or the number of enterprises, the rest of the world combined is no match.
In addition to XPeng, Geely, and GAC mentioned above, a large number of Chinese car companies such as FAW, Changan, Chery, and BYD are also deploying in the flying car track. CATL, which manufactures automotive power batteries, is also developing power batteries for flying cars.
(FAW Hongqi Flying Car - Tiannian 1)
According to He Wei, the founder and CEO of Vistar Aviation, the single - unit price of motors suitable for flying cars overseas is 100,000 - 150,000 euros, while domestic suppliers have reduced it to 150,000 yuan, only 1/8 of the overseas price.
In addition, the development of China's 5G and Beidou communication technologies has also laid a solid technological foundation for low - altitude three - dimensional intelligent traffic management.
These capabilities make China expected to become the world's largest production and sales base for the flying car industry.
Conclusion
After leading the global new energy vehicle market, China is obviously expected to lead the global flying car market again.
However, even with a large number of advantages, we need to take it a little slower in the early stage of industrial development. Currently, there are already a large number of thorny problems in the flying car industry. In the future, after the products are truly launched in the market on a large scale, there may be more problems waiting for us.
Only by laying a solid foundation can the Chinese flying car industry move forward more steadily and fly higher in the future!