In the first three quarters, the sales of new homes nationwide reached 6.3 trillion yuan.

On October 20th, the National Bureau of Statistics released relevant data on the real - estate market for September. Statistics show that in September, the sales prices of newly - built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and those in second - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month - on - month. The overall decline has widened. From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, and the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, still showing a year - on - year downward trend.

The industry expects that the sales volume of newly - built commercial housing nationwide this year will be in the range of 8.5 trillion - 9 trillion yuan. Last year, this figure was 96.8 billion yuan.

01 

Short - term prices of new and second - hand houses still face pressure

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the overall sales prices of new houses in first, second, and third - tier cities are on a downward trend, but there are obvious differences among cities.

• Among them, the sales prices of newly - built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points wider than that of last month. Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6% and 1.0% respectively.
• The sales prices of newly - built commercial residential buildings in second - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the decline widened by 0.1 percentage points. Hangzhou and Changchun increased by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, and the prices in Sanya and Hefei remained flat month - on - month.
• The sales prices of newly - built commercial residential buildings in third - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as last month. The housing prices in Huizhou increased by 0.1% month - on - month.

It is worth noting that the new - house markets in first and second - tier cities showed signs of bottoming out this year. The prices of new houses in cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Sanya, Taiyuan, Nanning, Yichang, and Urumqi all increased year - on - year compared with the same period last year.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

In the second - hand housing market, short - term prices still face certain pressure. In September, the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities did not increase either month - on - month or year - on - year.

Specifically, in September, the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, the same as last month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.9%, 1.0%, 0.8%, and 1.0% respectively. The sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in second and third - tier cities decreased by 0.7% and 0.6% month - on - month respectively, and the declines both widened by 0.1 percentage points.

Zhang Bo, the dean of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, expects that in the fourth quarter, the policy relaxation will continue to support the transaction volume in core cities, and the confidence in stabilizing housing price expectations will be further strengthened. However, non - core areas in first and second - tier cities, including a large number of small and medium - sized cities, still need to "exchange price for volume" to digest inventory.

According to the online data of Anjuke, the number of second - hand housing listings in 100 cities remains at a high level. Although the month - on - month decline in September narrowed to 0.34%, the downward trend remains unchanged, and prices will still face pressure. Affected by population outflow and inventory pressure, the market in small and medium - sized cities may be less popular than expected in October.

Zhang Bo believes that there are signals of accelerated market recovery. One of the key signals is the performance on the land side. The heat differentiation signal in the land market, especially the land premium rate in the core areas of core cities, is a key indicator. The high premium rates in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai in September reflect the restoration of real - estate enterprises' confidence in core assets. The second key signal is the change in the inventory digestion cycle. The overall digestion cycle in first and second - tier cities has dropped to less than 12 months, and that in third and fourth - tier cities has dropped to less than 15 months, indicating an accelerated digestion rhythm. If the unsold area of commercial housing in 100 cities continues to decrease, it indicates that inventory digestion has entered an accelerated period and the market will further stabilize.

02 

Residential inventory decreased by more than 32 million square meters

According to the "Basic Situation of the National Real - Estate Market from January to September 2025" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicators such as national real - estate development investment, new housing construction area, and sales of newly - built commercial housing are still in the process of downward adjustment. Since real - estate enterprises have reduced new construction at a faster rate than sales digestion, as of the end of September, the unsold area of national commercial housing has decreased by 39.63 million square meters compared with the peak in the first quarter.

Among them, the decrease in new - house inventory mainly comes from the digestion of residential inventory. At the end of September, the residential inventory was 399.37 million square meters, a decrease of 32.37 million square meters compared with the peak this year.

On the sales side, from January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. Among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 5.6%. The sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 6.304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. Among them, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 7.6%.

On the investment side, from January to September, the national real - estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Among them, residential investment was 5.2046 trillion yuan, a decrease of 12.9%.

The decline in new construction by development enterprises is higher than that on the sales side. From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the construction area of residential housing was 4.52165 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The new construction area of housing was 453.99 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%. Among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The completed area of housing was 311.29 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the completed area of residential housing was 222.28 million square meters, a decrease of 17.1%.