The Dilemma of Hydrogen-Powered Heavy Trucks: The False Prosperity Behind Four Collaborations

The "four partnerships" in the hydrogen-powered heavy truck industry are accused of creating a false prosperity, and the industry is still trapped in three deadlocks: "unaffordable, lack of refueling facilities, and inapplicability."

The four partnerships that were intensively finalized from September to October - the alliance between Weishi Energy and Brazil's IPT, the cooperation between Hebei Shenneng and Yipai Hydrogen Energy, the collaboration between Meijin Energy and Shanxi Shanshui Cement, and the joint effort between Zhika Technology and Yuntao Hydrogen Energy - are not signals of an industrial explosion. Instead, they represent the hydrogen-powered heavy truck industry's active attempt to break through the triple dilemmas of cost, infrastructure, and application scenarios. These partnerships have torn off the veil of the industry's "pseudo-prosperity": on the surface, they involve technology output and ecosystem building, but in essence, they are forced responses to the core pain points of "unaffordable, lack of refueling facilities, and inapplicability."

01

Insoluble Cost Problem: Policy Dependence Fails to Conceal Commercial Defects

The Achilles' heel of the commercialization of hydrogen-powered heavy trucks has always been cost. The threshold of 1 million yuan per vehicle (still 900,000 yuan after subsidies) is more than three times that of diesel trucks of the same specification. In the four partnerships, enterprises are trying to share costs through industrial chain integration, but this does not address the root cause.

Hebei Shenneng and Yipai Hydrogen Energy have introduced the "wind-solar-storage-hydrogen" model with molten salt energy storage, claiming to reduce the hydrogen production cost below the market price. However, this claim is based on the ideal premise that the green electricity price in China remains stable at below 0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour. In reality, the annual power generation hours of wind and solar power in the hydrogen consumption areas in eastern China are less than 2,000 hours, and the operating rate of discrete hydrogen production devices is relatively low. The actual cost is much higher than the estimated value. More importantly, the cost loopholes in the storage, transportation, and refueling links have not been filled - the cost of transporting hydrogen by 20MPa high-pressure gaseous tube trucks increases sharply with distance. Considering the transportation cost for 200 kilometers and the fixed cost of the refueling link, the terminal hydrogen refueling price is still difficult to be lower than 40 yuan per kilogram.

Meijin Energy's attempt in Shanxi is more representative. Relying on the full subsidy for highway tolls for local hydrogen-powered trucks, the cost reduction highly depends on policy support. Once the subsidy is reduced, based on the current operating cost of hydrogen refueling stations, the annual operating cost advantage of a single vehicle will disappear instantly. The so - called "cost reduction through scale" essentially transfers the technical cost to policy support.

02

Deadlock in Infrastructure: How to Solve the Dilemma of Fewer Stations and Fewer Trucks?

The infrastructure dilemma of "nowhere to refuel" has been skillfully avoided in the cooperation cases, but the data does not lie. As of the end of June 2025, only more than 500 hydrogen refueling stations had been built in China, and most of them were concentrated in the demonstration cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, which is a drop in the bucket for the cross - provincial logistics network. What's more embarrassing is that the existing hydrogen refueling stations generally face the problem of insufficient operating load - the average load rate of the industry is less than 30%, and the growth rate of station construction has entered a low - plateau period.

One of the important reasons for Weishi Energy to cooperate with Brazil's IPT is that the latter's LabH₂ laboratory has two hydrogen refueling stations with 70MPa and 35MPa, which are still scarce resources in non - demonstration cities in China. Although Hebei Shenneng's plan for an integrated "production - storage - refueling - application" model aims at the "1+X" hydrogen refueling station layout, due to the lack of approval regulations for station construction and the dependence on imported key equipment, the implementation cycle is difficult to estimate. The core equipment such as high - pressure compressors and hydrogen refueling guns required for hydrogen refueling station construction in China still largely rely on imports, resulting in the current construction cost of a single station being much higher than the price of about 3 million yuan per station for ordinary gas stations, which further dampens the enthusiasm of capital investment.

None of the four partnerships has found a way to break the cycle of "fewer trucks lead to station losses, and fewer stations make it difficult for trucks." Even in the cooperation between Longji Hydrogen Energy and Yanshan Iron and Steel, the model of enterprises building their own hydrogen refueling stations can only meet internal needs and cannot form a social service network.

03

Dilemma in Application Scenarios: Unable to Function Outside the Ideal Environment

The joint development of an 18 - ton customized wing - span truck by Zhika Technology and Yuntao Hydrogen Energy marks that the industry finally admits the reality that "universal products don't work." Previously, hydrogen - powered heavy trucks mostly "performed" in demonstration projects, and their lack of practicality was due to the separation from real - world logistics scenarios.

Yuntao Hydrogen Energy's "Yunqing 130B system" further improves the endurance and load capacity, precisely matching the needs of urban trunk - line logistics. Behind this is the repeated weighing of the triangular relationship among "load - endurance - energy replenishment." Similar scenario adaptation is even more urgent in the industrial field: the hundreds of hydrogen - powered heavy trucks operated by Yanshan Iron and Steel are only used for internal raw material transportation because short - distance fixed routes can avoid the problem of insufficient hydrogen refueling stations; Shanxi Shanshui Cement's choice of hydrogen - powered heavy trucks is also because of its fixed transportation routes and stable hydrogen demand, and the energy replenishment problem can be solved through the enterprise's self - built hydrogen refueling facilities.

However, this kind of scenario adaptation is still a "small - scale experiment." In China's heavy - truck logistics business, cross - provincial long - distance transportation accounts for more than 50%. The requirements of this kind of scenario for the hydrogen refueling network are far beyond what enterprise cooperation can meet. The so - called "scenario - based solutions" are currently just limited attempts.

04

Uncertain Future: Weak Repairs, Difficult to Break the Ice

What these four partnerships outline is the current situation of the hydrogen - powered heavy truck industry, which is "local optimization" rather than "systematic breakthrough": Weishi Energy goes overseas to find technology verification scenarios, Hebei Shenneng combines energy storage to reduce its dependence on the price of hydrogen production electricity, Meijin Energy binds to specific scenarios to obtain policy dividends, and Zhika Technology conducts customized development to avoid infrastructure shortcomings.

Three preconditions are needed for a real breakthrough: First, the average cost of green hydrogen should be reduced to below 25 yuan per kilogram, which requires both breakthroughs in electrolyzer technology and large - scale implementation of green power; second, the approval policy for hydrogen refueling stations should be relaxed to promote the large - scale construction of integrated hydrogen production and refueling stations, and the average terminal hydrogen refueling price should be reduced to below 35 yuan per kilogram; third, an interest - sharing mechanism among "automobile manufacturers - energy suppliers - logistics providers" should be established to replace the current single subsidy - dependent model.

The value of these cooperation cases does not lie in showing how many possibilities there are, but in exposing the real situation of the industry: The commercialization of hydrogen - powered heavy trucks still needs to cross multiple barriers in technology, policy, and the market. Every attempt now is just to accumulate strength for the upcoming critical point.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Foreseeing Energy." Author: Zhao Jianan. Republished by 36Kr with permission.