The 17th year of Tmall Double 11: The intersection of e-commerce promotions, AI, and mass consumption
At 8 p.m. on October 20th, Tmall's Double 11 shopping festival will officially kick off. This is the 17th Double 11.
Tmall, the pioneer of Double 11, has been facing questions in recent years: What new ideas can Double 11 still offer?
This year, the answer to this question seems less abstract. The market environment is quite different from before - two major trends are reshaping the e - commerce industry and the entire consumption landscape.
On one hand, the instant retail market is booming, and the trillion - scale incremental market is unlocking new possibilities. The potential of the large - scale consumption platform that integrates food delivery and e - commerce is beginning to emerge. According to QuestMobile data, since the launch of Taobao Flash Shopping, the average monthly DAU of the Taobao App has increased by over 50 million, and the average daily usage time has increased by over 20%. This is a rare traffic peak in the same period in recent years.
Meanwhile, the world's attention has been repeatedly drawn to AI. As an industry leader, Alibaba has predicted the prospect of "super artificial intelligence" and reaffirmed its determination to fully embrace it. E - commerce is one of the industries closest to AI, so Taobao and Tmall, which rely on Alibaba's technological foundation, have naturally attracted much attention.
At the just - concluded Tmall Double 11 press conference, Jialuo, the president of Tmall under Alibaba's China E - commerce Business Group, repeatedly mentioned the historical opportunities presented by AI and large - scale consumption and stated that the platform will make bets and investments.
Standing at the intersection of the two major trends of large - scale consumption and AI, the outside world is most concerned about the following three questions:
1. How can Double 11 absorb the traffic from flash shopping? What new dividends will "large - scale consumption" bring to Double 11?
2. Can AI - powered e - commerce turn from a dream into a reality?
3. And the old question: After 17 years, is Double 11 still important for brands?
The Tmall Double 11 press conference held today may provide answers to these questions.
01. How "Large - Scale Consumption" Drives New Growth
According to information from Alibaba's earnings conference call at the end of August, the total monthly transaction buyers of Taobao Flash Shopping have reached 300 million, a 200% increase compared to April. These 300 million people coming to Taobao are not just for ordering takeaways. On social media, users often joke that they open Taobao to order takeaways but "accidentally" clear their shopping carts.
However, this also poses a new question: How can the huge traffic from flash shopping be converted into Double 11 traffic? In the long run, how can the so - called "large - scale consumption" strategy drive the sustainable growth of the platform and brands?
We can find a clue from the information at the press conference: The integration of online and offline, as well as long - distance and short - distance consumption, will be the key focus of this year's Double 11 and the future "large - scale consumption" strategy. And 88VIP and Taobao's premium membership will be crucial in absorbing the new growth.
This summer, many merchants took the lead in entering the market: In August alone, 490 brands had transactions exceeding one million yuan on Taobao Flash Shopping, and 77 brands had transactions exceeding ten million yuan.
The growth potential of the new consumption scenario will be further tested during Double 11: This year, 37,000 brands and 400,000 stores have joined Taobao Flash Shopping and participated in Tmall Double 11. Instant retail will contribute to brand growth during Double 11 for the first time, and many brands will start experiments on integrating long - distance and short - distance consumption.
The combination of Tmall flagship stores and flash shopping is also crucial. Instant retail is considered the "new engine for Tmall flagship stores." Jialuo introduced that many brands have connected their offline store systems, inventory, and online flagship stores. He believes that this new model can achieve remarkable results in half a year.
Brands that have taken the lead in trying have seen some results. For example, Decathlon connected 208 of its offline stores with its Tmall official flagship store, which directly drove transactions on Taobao Flash Shopping to exceed ten million yuan in July. Another example is the bicycle brand Xidesheng, which adopted the model of "ordering online and picking up offline." Consumers can enjoy both online discounts and offline experiences. On the fourth day of its launch on flash shopping, its daily sales exceeded three million yuan. At the press conference, a relevant person in charge of Muji revealed that in the new fiscal year, it has integrated its e - commerce and instant retail departments to accelerate the integration of online and offline.
Recent adjustments to the platform's user strategy also seem to be paving the way for the integration of long - distance and short - distance consumption: Industry insiders have observed that after summer, Taobao Flash Shopping gradually shifted its strategic focus to attracting more customers and increasing profits. The stabilized user group is highly compatible with brand merchants.
If instant retail is the "source" of incremental growth, then the platform's membership system is more like a "hub." Based on the sharing at the press conference by Jialuo and Chuduan, continuous investment in the "hub" is the key to unlocking the potential of "large - scale consumption."
For a long time, the steadily growing 88VIP members have been Taobao and Tmall's most core user advantage: According to relevant Tmall data, the annual confirmed shopping amount of 88VIP members is nine times that of non - members. More than 55% of the business of Tmall's top - tier brands is contributed by 88VIP members.
The number of 88VIP members currently stands at 53 million and has been growing at a double - digit rate for multiple quarters. In an ideal large - scale consumption platform that meets all - in - one consumption needs from food and entertainment to shopping, the growth potential of 88VIP members is even greater. Focusing on this growing group of high - value users is a very rational choice.
Taobao's premium membership, which was launched in August this year, makes cross - scenario large - scale consumption operations possible. As Chuduan, the president of the Taobao platform under Alibaba's China E - commerce Business Group, put it, the core of a large - scale consumption platform is to "understand a person across all scenarios." The premium membership integrates the ecological benefits of Ele.me, Fliggy, etc., and divides members into different levels based on their Taobao scores. It is an ideal window for understanding user groups and consumption scenarios.
This comprehensive marketing strategy has also been fully integrated into this year's Tmall Double 11: Taobao Flash Shopping has launched special benefits. 88VIP members can enjoy a 50% discount on takeaways every day during Double 11. The investment in 88VIP consumption vouchers has reached 50 billion yuan, almost doubling compared to last year's 30 billion yuan. Popular promotions during the 618 shopping festival, such as "85% off at checkout + 10% off consumption vouchers," will also continue.
In addition, cross - scenario marketing during the entire Double 11 will be more diverse. For example, users who place takeaway orders on the Taobao Gold Coin channel can receive up to 1,000 Taobao gold coins, which can be used as cash when shopping on Taobao. Data shows that similar collaborative promotions have brought about an increase in orders since the launch of flash shopping, initially verifying the growth potential of the "large - scale consumption" model across multiple scenarios.
Overall, this year's Double 11 features larger investment and deeper collaboration, making it the first systematic test of the "large - scale consumption strategy." After this test, how the premium membership system will be deepened, how flash shopping will expand, and how brands will participate more precisely may determine Alibaba's direction in the large - scale consumption market in the next few years.
02. AI Fully Implemented in Tmall Double 11 for the First Time
In addition to integrating large - scale consumption scenarios, another highlight of this year's Double 11, which also became the focus of the press conference, is that AI is fully implemented in Tmall Double 11 for the first time.
AI - powered e - commerce is not a new concept. Globally, many technology companies have extended their AI capabilities to the e - commerce field. For example, recently, OpenAI launched an instant checkout function, claiming that "it's only a matter of time before it achieves billions of dollars in GMV."
However, Taobao started experimenting with AI earlier and is closer to real - world applications.
In August and September, Taobao quietly tested two AI search products, AI Universal Search and AI Assistant. At this year's Double 11 press conference, six AI - powered shopping guide applications were launched all at once, making this year's Double 11 seem like an AI product application conference.
The most typical application scenario is on the merchant side. The application of Agent on the merchant side has a certain foundation and has significantly reduced costs and increased efficiency. According to relevant Tmall data, AI - powered data analysis has generated over 10 million reports, and 85% of merchants are satisfied. Advertising placement, which is of great concern to brands, is also an area where AI excels. Currently, AI has increased the ROI of merchants' advertising placement by 12%.
Starting from this year's Double 11, AI may not only "reduce costs and increase efficiency" in several aspects but also reshape the entire business process.
Jialuo emphasized "investing in AI R & D" at the press conference, with the ultimate goal of "foreseeing the future of consumption earlier than the market."
This statement is very appealing. There is a complete path to support this future vision:
First, there is a significant investment in computing power R & D. Jialuo revealed that the improvement in computing power has greatly enhanced the accuracy of product recommendations, and the purchase conversion rate has increased by 25%. Now, AI can do more than just "guess what you like." It can be more detailed, predicting "what you may need and when," greatly extending the cycle of analyzing consumer behavior and trends.
Jialuo also specifically mentioned the intelligent coupon system at the event. In general, with the help of AI, the system can match suitable products with appropriate discounts and send them to the right consumers at the right time. For consumers, they can get discounts on their favorite products; for merchants, the purchase conversion rate can be increased. Pilot - phase data shows that the coupon conversion rate of the AI "Smart Discount Engine" is 15% higher than traditional methods.
In the context of a large - scale consumption platform, this system has even greater potential. For example, users who like light food may be potential running shoe consumers. Will a running shoe red envelope be more likely to drive a purchase?
It is worth noting that part of the 50 billion yuan in consumption vouchers invested in this year's Double 11 is distributed through the "AI Smart Discount Engine."
What is most attractive is the upgraded 3.0 version of the Tmall flagship store, which has been transformed into an "intelligent state." Jialuo calls it the "super entry point in the AI era." Through this entry point, brands can use AI to sense user needs in real - time and provide personalized displays and services tailored to each individual. This sounds cool and makes people look forward to its business prospects.
On the consumer side, during this year's Double 11, AI can already serve as a shopping assistant on Taobao. Here are two simple examples: One is "AI Universal Search." Different from traditional search, it can understand complex needs and provide shopping guides. The other is "AI Shopping List." Users can use AI to generate their own shopping lists and wish lists, and they can also upgrade the lists through conversations to find a series of products instead of selecting them one by one.
From the consumer's perspective, they are like the shopping - expert version of DeepSeek. From an industry perspective, these products will change consumer decision - making one day. On one hand, they help users find products more easily, and on the other hand, they help merchants find users more accurately.
Kaifu, the president of the Search and Recommendation Intelligence under Alibaba's China E - commerce Business Group, said that Taobao aims to build "useful AI." "We hope that AI can enable consumers to express their shopping needs more freely and allow merchants to reach users more accurately." Taobao is probably the e - commerce platform with the most confidence to claim to build "useful AI."
If AI will rewrite the operation mode of e - commerce in a few years, then this year's Double 11 may be the beginning.
03. A Transitional Double 11
Finally, let's return to the key question: Is Double 11 still important for brands?
Although the entire press conference was about large - scale consumption and AI, it is not difficult to detect that the underlying thread is to draw a roadmap for brand growth in the future.
Since its inception, Double 11 has not only been a shopping festival but also a stage for new business models and technologies. Whether it is the integration of large - scale consumption scenarios or the full - scale implementation of AI applications, brands are likely to accumulate methodologies that will determine their future business strategies.
In this sense, the 17th Double 11 will be a new beginning.
Previous negative voices about Double 11 mainly revolved around its sluggish growth and lack of innovation.
People tend to simplify large - scale promotions as "big sales." In the so - called era of "consumption downgrade," brands cannot compete with white - label products, and large - scale promotions become a liability.
However, data tells a different story. Recently, the National School of Development at Peking University conducted a research project on the "China Online Consumption Index" to quantitatively monitor changes in China's consumption quality. After tracking data for nearly three years, the research team found that during the quarters of the 618 and Double 11 promotions, "although both unbranded products, low - end brands, and high - quality brand products offer discounts, the relative sales volume of high - quality brands increases more." That is to say, during large - scale promotions like Double 11, not only does the total consumption volume increase, but also the transaction volume of high - premium brand products is higher. Large - scale promotions are a must - compete opportunity for all brand products.
In fact, Double 11 plays a role far beyond promoting brand sales. In the past decade, Double 11 has actually changed the growth path of brands. For example, almost every year during Tmall's Double 11 and 618 promotions, a number of "dark - horse" brands emerge. They become well - known through large - scale promotions and often mature after three to five promotions. Double 11 is a new field dominated by digital platforms, providing exposure that traditional business models cannot match. Brands can prove their business models and gain consumer recognition with unprecedented efficiency.
Looking at past Double 11 events, we can also find that Double 11 often plays a transitional role: The platform's main strategy for the year is tested during the 618 promotion, and Double 11 further strengthens the effective and valuable directions. Then, based on the changing market landscape, it sets the tone for the next stage. For example, during this year's 618, Tmall announced the GMV indicator excluding refunds for the first time, which is a first in the history of e - commerce promotions. As we understand, this will be an indicator that Tmall will focus on in the long term. This indicator is likely to become an industry trend in the future.
From a more macro perspective, Double 11 is not only crucial for brands but also plays a key role in promoting the development of the digital economy: The concentrated and huge demand for computing power has directly driven the rapid iteration of cloud computing; the extreme demand during Double 11 has forced the leap - forward development of electronic payment technology; new business models such as live - streaming e - commerce