The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics holds the key to making money for ordinary people in the AI era.
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced in Stockholm on the 13th that the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to economists Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt in recognition of their elucidation of the theory of innovation - driven economic growth.
According to the official website of the Nobel Prize, half of the 11 million Swedish kronor prize will be awarded to Joel Mokyr for "identifying the preconditions for sustained growth through technological progress"; the other half will be jointly awarded to Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for "their theory of achieving sustained growth through creative destruction". Aghion and Howitt inherited and greatly developed the ideas of Joseph Schumpeter.
This year's Nobel Prize in Economics has returned to the theory of economic growth, and the term "creative destruction" has become the key. Since the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic growth rate has soared unprecedentedly. Its foundation lies in continuous technological innovation; sustained economic growth stems from the replacement of old technologies by new ones, a process known as "creative destruction".
You can never find a new continent by following an old map.
The core information you must know about the main ideas of this year's Nobel Prize in Economics is closely related to each of our fates.
No matter how many carriages you add together, you can't get a train
Schumpeter pointed out in his book The Theory of Economic Development that entrepreneurs are the "pioneers of economic development" and also the innovators who can "realize the recombination of production factors". The role of the innovator, the subject of innovation, is to creatively disrupt the market equilibrium, that is, "creative destruction".
Economist Joseph Schumpeter
Schumpeter's "creative destruction" refers to the process in which new technologies, products, or business models replace the old economic structure. For example, the steam engine replaced hand - weaving during the Industrial Revolution, and digital technology has disrupted traditional media. In other words, the growth brought about by creative destruction is a stage of eternal struggle between the old and the new forces, a process of industrial iteration full of "birth" and "death".
Dynamic imbalance is the "normal state" of a healthy economy. Only by creatively breaking the market equilibrium can entrepreneurs have the opportunity to obtain excess profits. In other words, when the market is stagnant and everyone follows the old rules, profits will be thin; but once someone dares to "upset the apple cart" - come up with new ideas, new machines, and new ways of doing things, there will be great potential for profit.
The key to economic progress is not price competition among enterprises, but fundamental change through "new combinations". Schumpeter defined innovation as the recombination of existing economic elements such as technology, products, markets, organizations, and resources. This process is carried out by entrepreneurs through the establishment of new enterprises. Instead of getting stuck in the old ways, it's better to break out and "experiment".
As Schumpeter said, no matter how many carriages you add together, you can't get a train. In the original system, adding more carriages will never lead to a qualitative change. Shifting from the carriage paradigm to the train paradigm is what innovation means. In terms of the theory of the second curve, it means shifting from the paradigm of the first curve to that of the second curve.
How to shift from the old paradigm to the new one, from the old curve to the new one? Schumpeter proposed a model - combinatorial innovation. Innovation is not about inventing something out of nothing, but about recombining old elements. For example, drones were not very marketable when they first came out, but they became popular after a camera was added to them. Adding a third element can actually determine the direction of things.
All great innovations are essentially cross - border recombinations. The opportunities for entrepreneurship often lie not in "brand - new inventions" but in "unexpected combinations".
In addition, entrepreneurs are the executors of innovation. They promote innovation through risk - taking and the recombination of production factors, but their identity only exists during the innovation process and disappears once innovation stops. Therefore, innovation requires risk - taking and entrepreneurial spirit. Economic growth depends on entrepreneurs' exploration of disruptive technologies, which requires society to encourage risk - taking and tolerate failure.
Is getting rich all about catching the right wave and having good luck?
Many people say that making big money depends on seizing opportunities and riding the wave. However, the research of these three economists proves that innovation and knowledge dissemination are at the core of the growth process.
What really drives economic growth is something intangible - knowledge.
Long - term growth is the result of cumulative innovation. Only through the dissemination and organization of knowledge can innovation be cumulative. Otherwise, we would have to reinvent the wheel, like Sisyphus climbing the same mountain over and over again.
Mokyr's research has discovered a profound connection between technological change and sustained growth from the history of the Industrial Revolution. He systematically explained how knowledge accumulation, institutional environment, cultural evolution, etc., promote technological progress and achieve sustained growth.
Mokyr believes that the essence of modern economic growth is the accumulation, dissemination, and application of "useful knowledge". What is "useful knowledge"? He divides knowledge into two categories: Propositional knowledge: that is, "know - why" (Know - why), referring to the scientific principles that understand the laws of nature. Instructional knowledge: that is, "know - how" (Know - how), referring to the practical skills of transforming principles into specific technologies.
Real economic take - off occurs when these two types of knowledge stimulate each other. Scientific principles drive technological inventions, and technological problems in turn give rise to scientific breakthroughs.
Mokyr also proposed the concept of the "Baconian Program", emphasizing the key role of knowledge creation and dissemination in the Industrial Revolution. We all know Bacon's most famous saying, "Knowledge is power". So, what kind of power does knowledge exert on economic growth? First, increasing the amount of knowledge and motivating more people to engage in scientific research significantly increases the output of scientific discoveries and technological inventions. Second, enhancing the accessibility of knowledge. Knowledge has thus become a major force supporting modern growth.
He also conducted a very innovative study to quantify the penetration of the "Enlightenment" in European countries. By counting the number of text lines describing different countries in the Encyclopédie during the Enlightenment and constructing an "Enlightenment Index", Mokyr reached a conclusion that challenges traditional perceptions: the Enlightenment indices of England, Scotland, and the Netherlands are significantly higher than that of France, which is traditionally considered the center of the Enlightenment.
This distribution of the index exactly coincides with the sequence of Europe's economic take - off - that is, the regions with higher indices are the ones where the Industrial Revolution first occurred and where the economy first achieved modern growth (such as the UK and the Netherlands).
This means that growth is not just the accumulation of capital and labor, but also a mechanism for the emergence of knowledge.
From economics to life: Three lessons for ordinary people
The law of economic growth revealed by the Nobel Prize is not just a macro - economic proposition, but also a growth law applicable to every individual and every entrepreneur. It is the efforts of countless people that have ultimately converged into a path towards growth.
How a country can continuously innovate, how a company can continuously grow, and how an individual can avoid being left behind by the times - the answers are actually the same: creative destruction, knowledge accumulation, and risk - taking spirit.
1. Conduct "creative destruction" on yourself
Creative destruction is not only a theory but also a way of action.
True innovation and entrepreneurship are not about replicating others' successful models, but about daring to break the old rules and redefine problems.
Whether it's Elon Musk reshaping the automotive, aerospace, and energy industries, or Zhang Yiming reconstructing information distribution with recommendation algorithms, they all follow the same logic: they are not satisfied with "faster carriages" but are building the "first train".
Charles Handy reminded us in The Second Curve that when you are still in the ascending phase of the first curve, you should start drawing the second curve.
This is especially important for entrepreneurs. Don't wait until the industry is in decline, users are lost, and financing is difficult to think about innovation; real entrepreneurs actively subvert themselves at the peak of success.
This is the "corporate version of creative destruction": when others are busy copying, you should be busy recombining; when others are seeking comfort in stability, you should move forward in uncertainty.
Innovation is the best investment in the future. The fundamental of economic growth is not more capital but more innovation. And each of us can be part of this growth.
2. The fuel for innovation: the compound interest of knowledge and the upgrade of cognition
The three laureates have jointly revealed a core fact - sustained growth depends not on capital but on knowledge.
Knowledge is the underlying currency of all innovation.
The compound interest of knowledge is the most invisible but most powerful capital for entrepreneurs. As Charlie Munger said, "The wisest thing a person can do is to continuously improve their cognitive model."
Charlie Munger, a famous American investor, mentioned an important concept in his book Poor Charlie's Almanack - the multi - disciplinary thinking model.
What Munger means by the multi - disciplinary thinking model is not that we need to study every discipline in depth, but just learn the real big ideas from each discipline.
Of course, we also need to implant these thinking models into our brains and spend our whole lives cultivating them so that they become skills we can call upon at any time.
This is a lifelong training.
Munger said, "The value of this method is proven by my life!"
"If you can do this, I guarantee that one day you will find that you have become the most efficient person among your peers without even realizing it."
3. True entrepreneurial spirit: dare to try, dare to make mistakes, and dare to change
Innovation means risk. Entrepreneurs are not capitalists but risk - takers.
Economist Clayton Christensen proposed in The Innovator's Dilemma that "disruptive innovation almost never comes from the mainstream market."
True breakthroughs always occur in the marginal areas: small markets, niche demands, and seemingly "unprofitable" new tracks. Airbnb was born on the fringes of the hotel industry, ByteDance started in the gaps of information distribution, and OpenAI was initially a laboratory ignored by traditional giants. Their common feature is that they dare to start in the uncharted territory.
For ordinary people, this means two things:
First, learn to face the future with an "experimental" mindset. Second, regard failure as the cost of exploration rather than a frustrating ending.
As Thomas Kuhn said in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, "The shift of paradigms often comes from a few neglected heretics."
Every entrepreneur should be that "heretic" - not restricted by the current consensus and not scared off by the temporary downturn of the market.
Innovation is not a flash of inspiration but an ability that requires continuous training. When you can continuously build this ability, entrepreneurship is no longer a "single bet" but a "long - term compound interest".
The rise of AI is another opportunity for creative destruction! Just like the rise of DeepSeek. Innovation has once again entered the uncharted territory, full of opportunities for disruptive innovation.
In the era of AI, the scarcest resources are not funds or manpower, but the courage to turn ideas into actions and the ability to recombine knowledge into innovation.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Hundun Academy". The author is Hundun Academy. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.