Elon Musk throws a $685 million order to Sanhua, and China becomes an important supplier for Optimus.
When Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, asserted that "the value of Optimus will exceed that of Tesla cars," the global capital market once again focused its attention on the humanoid robot track.
On October 15, the news that Tesla had placed a $685 million actuator order with Chinese supplier Sanhua Intelligent Control directly ignited the A-share robot sector - Sanhua Intelligent Control's stock hit the daily limit, and enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain soared collectively.
This is not a coincidence: from the test assembly line at the Fremont factory to locking in the core supply chain, the commercialization process of Optimus has entered the countdown. A research report by Huachuang Securities stated bluntly that this "robot replacing human" revolution will reshape the underlying logic of the manufacturing, service, and even household sectors, and the Chinese supply chain is becoming a key fulcrum for Musk's ambition.
Although there is still a long way to go before humanoid robots are put into practical use, as Musk said, the goal of "every family having a humanoid robot" is bound to be achieved. Therefore, Musk is also increasing his investment in humanoid robots.
From Cars to Robots: The Logic of Musk's "Second Growth Curve"
Musk has never concealed his ambition for Optimus. At the Q3 2025 earnings conference, he first disclosed the progress of "small-scale test assembly" and clarified the delivery target for 2026. The huge order from Sanhua Intelligent Control further verifies the maturity of the supply chain - as the "joints" of the robot, the precision and cost of linear actuators directly determine the feasibility of mass production.
The capital market is voting with real money: The humanoid robot track has moved from the concept stage to the performance realization stage. According to Tesla's internal calculations, if the unit price of Optimus is controlled within $20,000, the global market scale will exceed one million units, corresponding to tens of billions of dollars in revenue. Musk's ultimate goal is even more ambitious - to reduce costs through large-scale mass production and make robots penetrate into household, medical, logistics, and other scenarios like smartphones.
It is worth noting that Tesla's layout in the robot field is not a whim. As early as at the 2021 AI Day, Musk first presented the concept of a humanoid robot. After four years of technological accumulation and iteration, today's Optimus already has more mature motion control capabilities and more powerful AI algorithm support.
In terms of technical parameters, the joint flexibility of the second-generation Optimus has increased by 40%, and energy consumption has decreased by 25%. These improvements have laid a solid foundation for its commercial application.
From the perspective of industrial development, Tesla's decision to accelerate the mass production plan of Optimus at this time also reflects its prediction of the future labor market.
As the global population ages and the labor cost in the manufacturing industry continues to rise, robots that can work 24 hours a day without fatigue will become an important solution to the labor shortage problem. According to the prediction of the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), by 2030, the global industrial robot market scale will reach 10 million units, and the proportion of humanoid robots is expected to exceed 15%.
Dissecting the Optimus Industrial Chain: Who Is Sharing the Trillion-Dollar Pie?
The daily limit of Sanhua Intelligent Control's stock is just the beginning. The mass production of Optimus will drive the explosion of three core tracks:
The linear actuator order from Sanhua Intelligent Control is just the tip of the iceberg. Optimus needs to be equipped with 28 - 40 joint modules, involving key components such as harmonic reducers (e.g., Green Harmonic) and servo motors (Inovance Technology). Chinese manufacturers have occupied 70% of Tesla's supply chain share thanks to their cost advantages and rapid technological iteration.
Taking Sanhua Intelligent Control as an example, the linear actuators it developed have reached the international leading level in terms of precision and durability. The company's financial report shows that in the first half of 2025, the revenue from robot-related businesses increased by 320% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin remained above 35%. These characteristics of high growth and high profit margin are the important reasons for the capital's pursuit.
In addition to Sanhua Intelligent Control, Green Harmonic, the leading domestic harmonic reducer enterprise, is also accelerating its capacity expansion. It is understood that the new Suzhou factory of the company will be put into production in 2026, with an annual production capacity of 500,000 units, which is sufficient to meet the initial mass production demand of Optimus. In the servo motor field, enterprises such as Inovance Technology and Estun are also actively deploying high-precision servo systems. These products are not only used in industrial robots but will also become the core components of humanoid robots in the future.
The "brain" of Optimus relies on high-performance AI chips.
Tesla's self-developed Dojo supercomputer and NVIDIA GPUs form the computing power base, while the visual perception solutions of Chinese enterprises such as Cambricon and Horizon are accelerating the replacement of overseas suppliers. "The requirements of robots for low power consumption and high computing power highly overlap with those of autonomous driving chips," an industry analyst pointed out.
Specifically, the AI system of Optimus needs to handle three major types of tasks: environmental perception, motion control, and decision-making planning. In terms of environmental perception, Tesla uses a multi-sensor fusion solution, including high-precision cameras, millimeter-wave radars, and lidars. The massive data generated by these sensors require powerful edge computing capabilities to process, so the performance of AI chips is crucial.
Currently, Tesla mainly uses its self-developed D1 chips in combination with NVIDIA's Orin chips to form a computing platform. However, considering cost factors, more Chinese suppliers may be introduced in the future. Cambricon's newly released MLU370-X8 chip performed excellently in the robot vision processing test, with 15% lower power consumption than NVIDIA products of the same performance, making it a potential alternative.
At the algorithm level, Tesla's accumulation in autonomous driving technology provides important support for its robot project. Optimus uses a neural network architecture homologous to Autopilot, enabling rapid environmental learning and behavior prediction. This technology transfer not only shortens the development cycle but also reduces R & D costs.
Enterprises such as Luxshare Precision and EFORT have provided assembly line solutions for Optimus. In the future, the manufacturing process of robots themselves may be completed by another batch of robots - once this "self-circulating" model is successful, the production cost will decrease exponentially.
In the manufacturing process, Tesla has adopted a completely different strategy from traditional automobile production. Due to the more complex structure of humanoid robots, the traditional assembly line operation mode is less efficient. Therefore, Tesla has developed a modular assembly system, decomposing the production of robots into multiple independent units, and each unit is assembled by specialized collaborative robots.
This production method places higher requirements on automation equipment. The flexible assembly line provided by Luxshare Precision for Tesla can quickly switch the production of different models of robots, with the switching time controlled within 30 minutes. The vision-guided assembly system developed by EFORT solves the problem of aligning precision components, improving the assembly precision to the level of 0.01 mm.
It is worth noting that the mass production of Optimus will also drive the development of surrounding supporting industries. For example, the sub - sectors such as special tools for robots, testing equipment, and maintenance services will all experience explosive growth. According to industry estimates, the value of the supporting industries throughout the life cycle of each humanoid robot may reach more than 50% of its selling price.
The Future Imagination of Humanoid Robots
Musk once predicted: "In the future, every family may have a robot." Behind this vision is a fundamental change in the design logic of Optimus - it is not an upgraded version of an industrial robotic arm but a new species centered on "versatility."
In Tesla's blueprint, Optimus will initially undertake repetitive labor such as factory handling and warehouse sorting, but its long - term goal is directed at the consumer market: taking care of the elderly, tutoring children, and even becoming a "household butler." A Goldman Sachs report shows that if the penetration rate of humanoid robots reaches 10%, the global market scale will exceed $5 trillion.
From the perspective of the technological evolution path, the commercialization of Optimus will be promoted in three stages:
Stage 1 (2026 - 2028): Mainly used in industrial scenarios to perform repetitive physical labor. Robots at this stage have relatively single functions but can continuously expand their capabilities through software updates.
Stage 2 (2029 - 2031): Enter the professional service field, such as medical care and educational assistance. Robots at this stage will have more powerful AI capabilities and more delicate operation skills and can complete some tasks that require judgment.
Stage 3 (after 2032): Fully enter the household scenario and become a real "general - purpose robot." Robots at this stage will be as popular as smartphones and can understand natural language instructions and independently complete complex tasks.
In terms of AI algorithms, Tesla is building the world's largest robot training dataset. The real - world scene data collected through the shadow mode can continuously optimize the robot's decision - making ability. At the same time, the dialogue system based on the large language model will enable the robot to have a more natural human - machine interaction experience.
From a social impact perspective, the popularization of humanoid robots will profoundly change the employment structure and lifestyle. A McKinsey research report points out that by 2035, robots may replace about 20% of global jobs and create 15% of new occupations. This structural change requires the joint efforts of the government, enterprises, and educational institutions.
As Tesla's supply chain list gets longer, the "iPhone moment" of the humanoid robot track is approaching. Optimus may just be the starting point: With the in - depth participation of the Chinese supply chain, this revolution driven by technology, capital, and demand may give rise to the biggest technology investment theme in the next decade. As Musk said: "We are not just manufacturing machines; we are creating a new form of future labor force."
From a more macro perspective, the development of humanoid robots is not only about commercial competition but also an important milestone in the evolution of human scientific and technological civilization. When machines can think and act like humans, we will face new ethical challenges and social changes. However, in any case, the robot revolution led by Musk is irresistible, and Chinese manufacturing is playing an increasingly crucial role in this historical process.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Xincaijing", author: Chuanchuan, published by 36Kr with authorization.