The expectation of the phasedown of subsidy policies has stimulated the warming up of the automobile market, and the sales volume of passenger cars reached a record high in September.
On October 13th, the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Joint Committee") released the production and sales data of domestic passenger cars in September 2025. The data shows that in September, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.241 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to September, the cumulative retail sales of domestic passenger cars reached 17.005 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. It is worth mentioning that the retail sales in September this year reached a new high, 50,000 units higher than the historical high of 2.19 million units in September 2017.
Regarding the growth of passenger car sales in September, Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Joint Committee, said that there are mainly two reasons. First, a large number of new products were launched in September, driving rapid market growth. According to incomplete statistics, more than 70 models were launched in September this year, with the highest density in history. Moreover, the prices of many new cars were lower than consumers' expectations, which stimulated continuous consumption in the automobile market. Second, in terms of policies, the exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles is expiring. Consumers will have to pay 5% more purchase tax when buying cars next year, which makes them feel a sense of urgency to buy cars and promotes the continuous rise of consumption in the car market.
In the environment of anti - "involution", the price war among car companies has gradually become more moderate, and the obvious price - cutting behaviors have decreased. According to the statistics of the Passenger Car Joint Committee, 23 models cut prices in September this year, compared with 36 models in the same period last year. However, there are numerous invisible preferential measures such as adding configurations in new model years, adjusting car owners' rights and interests, and the superposition of "two new" policies and increased factory subsidies. The data shows that the promotion of new energy vehicles increased slightly by 10.2% month - on - month in September, 2.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.7 percentage points higher than last month; the promotion intensity of fuel - powered cars was 23.9%, 1 percentage point higher than last month and 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
In September, new energy vehicles performed outstandingly, and the growth rate returned to double - digits. In that month, the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market reached 1.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 15.5%; from January to September, the cumulative retail sales reached 8.866 million units, a growth of 24.4%. Cui Dongshu said that the growth of the new energy vehicle market is mainly due to the rapid growth of pure - electric vehicles. The data shows that the year - on - year growth rate of the pure - electric market (wholesale) in September reached 32.4%, while the year - on - year growth rates of plug - in hybrid and extended - range vehicles were 8.4% and 8.7% respectively. The structural proportion of pure - electric and extended - range vehicles among new car - making forces has also changed from 50:50 last year to 70:30.
"The performance of plug - in hybrid and extended - range vehicles this year is not as good as that of pure - electric vehicles. In the pure - electric vehicle market, small and high - end pure - electric vehicles perform relatively strongly. In the household market, especially the additional - purchase market, they contribute significantly to the growth of the car market." Cui Dongshu pointed out. Since the beginning of this year, with the decline in battery costs, car companies have re - launched many small pure - electric models, and some large pure - electric SUVs have also been launched one after another.
In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger car market was 57.8%, a year - on - year increase of 5 percentage points. By brand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among self - owned brands was 78.1%; among luxury cars, it was 34.5%; among mainstream joint - venture brands, it was only 7.4%.
In terms of the monthly domestic retail share of new energy vehicles, in September, the retail share of new energy vehicles of self - owned brands was 70.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3 percentage points; the share of new energy vehicles of mainstream joint - venture brands was 3.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the share of new car - making forces was 20.2%, and brands such as XPeng Motors, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi Motors drove the share of new car - making forces to increase by 3.3 percentage points year - on - year; the share of Tesla was 5.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 percentage points.
In September, self - owned brands continued to grow, with retail sales reaching 1.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13%. In that month, the domestic retail share of self - owned brands was 66.9%, a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points. From January to September, the retail market share of self - owned brands was 64.8%, a 5.9 - percentage - point increase compared with the same period last year.
Relatively speaking, in September, the retail sales of mainstream joint - venture brands were 490,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%; the retail share of German brands was 14.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3 percentage points; the retail share of Japanese brands was 11.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the retail market share of American brands was 5.8%, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.1 percentage point, mainly due to the 48% year - on - year increase in the sales of SAIC - GM. The retail shares of Korean and other European and Western brands decreased slightly.
In September, automobile exports performed outstandingly. The data shows that in September, the export of passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 528,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.7% and a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. From January to September, the export of passenger cars by manufacturers reached 3.999 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was strong. In September, the export of new energy passenger cars reached 211,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 96.5%, accounting for 40.1% of passenger car exports, a 15.4 - percentage - point increase compared with the same period last year. Among them, pure - electric vehicles accounted for 66% of new energy vehicle exports (83% in the same period last year), and the export of A00 + A0 - class pure - electric vehicles, which are the core focus, accounted for 46% of pure - electric vehicle exports (38% in the same period last year). From January to September, the export of self - owned new energy vehicles reached 1.32 million units, a 125% increase.
"The export performance of new energy vehicles is better than expected. Mainly, plug - in hybrid and hybrid vehicles have replaced pure - electric vehicles as new growth points for export growth. In particular, the export of plug - in hybrid pick - up trucks is strong, becoming a highlight of new energy commercial vehicle exports." Cui Dongshu pointed out.
Regarding the market performance in October, Cui Dongshu said that although the Mid - Autumn Festival in 2024 was in September and the Mid - Autumn Festival in 2025 falls during the National Day holiday, the market enthusiasm in October this year is slightly lower. However, thanks to the high - growth characteristics of new energy vehicles at the end of the year and the contribution of national consumption - promotion policies, it is expected that the "Golden September and Silver October" phenomenon will still occur, but the year - on - year growth rate will be more moderate, and there will not be a 10% growth as last year.
Regarding the performance in the entire fourth quarter, Cui Dongshu said that the car market in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to continue the steady growth momentum on the basis of policy guidance and high - growth. "The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 (from 'full exemption' to 'half exemption') will stimulate consumers to buy cars intensively before the end of the year. Coupled with the peak seasons of 'Golden September and Silver October' and car companies' efforts to boost sales at the end of the year, the pattern of dual - wheel drive of new energy and exports will be further strengthened. The upgrading of intelligent connected technology and the improvement of market order brought by anti - 'involution' will also support consumer confidence. It is expected that there will still be a small positive growth in the fourth quarter." Cui Dongshu said. Based on this, the Passenger Car Joint Committee will discuss further raising the annual sales forecast in late October.
In August this year, the Passenger Car Joint Committee had raised the annual forecast once. It is expected that the retail sales of passenger cars in 2025 will reach 24.35 million units, a 6% increase. The predicted total is 300,000 units more than the forecast in June; it is expected that the export of passenger cars in 2025 will reach 5.46 million units, a 14% increase, 160,000 units more than the forecast at the beginning of the year; it is expected that the wholesale of new energy passenger cars in 2025 will reach 15.48 million units, a 27% increase, and the predicted total is slightly lower than the forecast in June.
This article is from the WeChat public account "Economic Observer", author: Zhou Ju. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.