On the Eve of the Energy Storage Industry's Explosion: Driven by Both Policies and the Market, the Trillion-Yuan Track is Ready to Take Off
In 2025, China's energy storage industry stood at an unprecedented turning point.
With the release of the "Special Action Plan for the Large - scale Construction of New - type Energy Storage", the installed capacity target of 180 million kilowatts was like a starting gun, and direct investment of 250 billion yuan was ready to be unleashed.
Behind the numbers is an astonishing growth rate: As of June 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new - type energy storage exceeded 100GW, which was 32 times that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan. Only in the first half of the year, the newly installed capacity reached 23.03GW, a year - on - year increase of 68%.
But more profound than the numbers is the complete change of the rules of the game.
In February 2025, Document No. 136 announced the end of the era of "mandatory energy storage allocation", and the energy storage industry became self - reliant ever since. Instead, the rise of independent energy storage has taken place - it has occupied more than half of the installed capacity, transforming from an "ancillary product" of new energy to a "powerful player" in the electricity market.
Energy storage, once a "supporting role", is making its debut in the spotlight on the stage of the new - type power system. Its story has just begun.
01 Policy Breakthrough: Document No. 136 Rewrites the Growth Rules of Energy Storage
The key to reshaping the valuation of energy storage lies in Document No. 136 (Notice on Deepening the Market - oriented Reform of the On - grid Electricity Price of New Energy to Promote the High - quality Development of New Energy) released in February 2025. This document forms a combination with previous policies of "short - term rush installation for support and long - term market - driven development", completely changing the industry's growth logic.
The most core breakthrough of Document No. 136 is to clearly state "energy storage shall not be used as a pre - condition for the grid connection of new energy projects", directly ending the administrative mandatory energy storage allocation model:
On the one hand, measures are implemented in stages. For existing projects connected to the grid before June 1, the "differential settlement" method is used to guarantee returns, and for incremental projects, market - competitive pricing is promoted, forcing enterprises to enhance their "self - financing" capabilities.
On the other hand, after the implementation of the policy, a rush installation wave was quickly triggered. From March to May 2025, the domestic energy storage tender volume reached 19.2GWh, a year - on - year surge of 210%. The order schedules of leading enterprises were extended to May 2026.
In the long run, this policy promotes the transformation of energy storage from a "policy task that must be completed" to a "profitable choice that can make money". Enterprises can cover costs through peak - valley arbitrage, auxiliary services, etc., and the focus of competition has shifted from "price competition" to "value competition".
Document No. 136 does not work in isolation but resonates with domestic and foreign policies:
Domestically, in March 2025, the National Energy Administration clearly required that the energy storage allocation for wind power and photovoltaic projects should be no less than 15%/2 hours. The "Action Plan for the Large - scale Construction of New - type Energy Storage" released in September listed computing facilities as the core application scenarios for energy storage, injecting a boost into the development of energy storage in data centers.
In the overseas market, dividends are also being released. The EU has clearly set a target of 200GW for energy storage installed capacity by 2030, and the US IRA Act provides an additional 10% subsidy for long - duration energy storage over 4 hours.
02 Explosion of Demand: Four Driving Forces and Data Centers as the New Engine
From January to September 2025, the newly installed global energy storage capacity reached 86GW, a year - on - year increase of 92%. Among them, 41GW was newly installed in China and 45GW overseas. The "four driving forces" jointly supported the industry's performance flexibility.
As the foundation, new energy energy storage allocation was driven by the rush installation of existing projects under Document No. 136. From January to September 2025, the newly installed capacity of domestic wind power and photovoltaic reached 102GW, and projects connected to the grid before June 1 accounted for 68%. Leading enterprises benefited directly - the energy storage shipment volume of Sungrow in the first half of the year was close to the 28GWh of the whole year in 2024.
User - side energy storage, driven by market - based returns, also performed remarkably. In provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu, the peak - valley price difference exceeded 1.2 yuan/kWh. Enterprises equipped with a 1MWh energy storage system could have an annual arbitrage income of over 1.8 million yuan, and the investment payback period was shortened to 3.5 years. From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic user - side energy storage capacity reached 11.3GW, a year - on - year increase of 230%, of which the industrial and commercial sector accounted for over 75%.
Grid - side energy storage is transforming towards a "multi - revenue model", no longer relying on a single peak - shaving business.
In July 2025, Guangdong launched a provincial virtual power plant pilot project, integrating 2GW of user - side energy storage resources; Xinjiang Power Grid increased the utilization rate of wind power from 85% to 96% through a 5GW energy storage system. From January to September 2025, the domestic grid - side energy storage tender volume reached 9.2GW, a year - on - year increase of 105%, and the proportion of projects with auxiliary service capabilities increased from 30% to 55%.
Most notably, data centers have become the fourth pillar of demand.
Driven by both "East - West Computing" and the expansion of AI computing power, from January to September 2025, the newly installed energy storage capacity in domestic data centers reached 15.8GW, a year - on - year surge of 280%, accounting for 38.5% of the total newly installed capacity. Behind this explosion of demand, there are three logics:
1. Driven by both policy and market, the peak - valley price difference in Beijing and Shanghai reached 1.8 yuan/kWh, and a 100MWh energy storage system could have an annual arbitrage income of over 20 million yuan;
2. Forced by the balance between computing power and energy consumption, Alibaba Cloud plans to increase the energy consumption of its data centers by 10 times by 2032. Its Zhangjiakou energy storage system can meet 30% of the electricity demand, saving 120 million yuan in electricity costs annually;
3. Multiple values are superimposed, and energy storage has been upgraded from a backup power source to a composite tool of "arbitrage + backup + green power consumption".
According to IEA forecasts, by 2030, the global energy storage installed capacity will reach 1200GW, a 380% increase compared to 2025, corresponding to a market scale of over 2 trillion yuan. Domestically, the cumulative energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 236.1 - 291.2GW by 2030, of which the proportion of energy storage in data centers will increase to 25%.
03 Technological Breakthrough: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement Build a Moat
From 2020 to 2025, the cost of domestic energy storage systems decreased from 1.8 yuan/Wh to about 0.8 yuan/Wh, a decrease of 55%, while the efficiency increased from 85% to 92%, and technological breakthroughs have become the core support for market - based profitability.
Currently, lithium - ion batteries remain the mainstream technology route, accounting for 82% of the global energy storage installed capacity. Among them, 280Ah large - cell batteries have become the market mainstream. Sungrow's PowerTitan 2.0 solution achieved a cost of 0.32 yuan/kWh in an Italian project, lower than the local coal - fired electricity price.
Currently, the price of lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells has dropped to 0.5 yuan/Wh. Coupled with the intelligent BMS system that extends the battery life by 15%, the full - life - cycle cost per kWh is only 0.35 yuan/kWh, achieving "subsidy - free profitability" in areas with large peak - valley price differences.
However, lithium - ion batteries still have shortcomings in long - duration energy storage scenarios, and various alternative technology routes are accelerating to fill the gap.
The cost of all - vanadium redox flow batteries has dropped to 1.5 yuan/Wh, with a cycle life of over 15,000 times; the system efficiency of a 300MW compressed - air energy storage project in Hebei reached 70%, and the cost decreased by 35%; CATL launched a 160Wh/kg sodium - ion battery with a 30% lower cost, which has been piloted in low - temperature areas. The Zhongguancun Energy Storage Alliance predicts that the long - duration energy storage installed capacity will reach 150GW by 2030, accounting for 30% of the total installed capacity.
Intelligent upgrading is also continuously improving efficiency. The AI - driven EMS system optimizes the charging and discharging strategies, increasing the peak - valley arbitrage income by 20%; Haibo Sichuang's "unmanned operation + predictive maintenance" solution reduces the operation and maintenance cost by 30%.
For data center scenarios, customized technologies are iterating rapidly: The heat dissipation efficiency of the liquid - cooling system has increased by 40% and the floor space has been reduced by 50%; grid - forming energy storage has the black - start capability; the integrated model of photovoltaic - energy storage - direct - current - flexible power promotes the self - generation and self - use of green power.
04 The Stronger Get Stronger, and the Matthew Effect Becomes More Obvious
From January to September 2025, the "Matthew Effect" in the energy storage industry became more prominent: The revenue growth rate of leading enterprises generally exceeded 100%, while that of small and medium - sized enterprises was less than 30%. The value center of the industrial chain is accelerating towards technology - intensive links.
The upstream link features "stable cost + scale advantage". The price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has stabilized at 45,000 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 15%, and the prices of anodes and electrolytes have also stabilized.
The mid - stream, as the "value center" of the industrial chain, has more prominent competitive advantages.
In the system integration field, the CR5 in the domestic market reached 65%, a year - on - year increase of 10 percentage points. The market shares of Sungrow, CATL, and BYD reached 22%, 18%, and 12% respectively; Sungrow's gross profit margin in the energy storage business was as high as 39.92%, significantly higher than the industry average.
In the energy storage inverter field, the CR5 in the global market reached 70%. Five domestic enterprises, including Sungrow, Huawei, Ginlong Technologies, GoodWe, and Deye Technology, accounted for a total share of 65%, firmly holding the leading position.
The performance of leading enterprises is particularly remarkable: Sungrow's revenue from the energy storage business in the first half of the year reached 17.803 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 127.78%, surpassing the photovoltaic inverter for the first time to become the largest source of revenue; CATL's revenue from the energy storage business exceeded 20 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 110%, and the order schedule has been extended to the third quarter of 2026, with strong growth certainty.
The downstream operation link extends the "hardware value" of energy storage to "long - term service value" through model innovation. MingYang Smart Energy provided full - chain services from wind power, energy storage to dispatching for Alibaba's Zhangjiakou project, with a single - contract value of 1.4 billion yuan. The service - oriented model has opened up profit margins.
05 Conclusion
The rise of the energy storage sector is not a short - term "concept hype", but the result of the resonance between "policy reconstruction" and "improvement of industrial fundamentals".
This policy does not weaken demand. Instead, it forces the industry to shift from "policy dependence" to "value creation" and from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" - short - term rush installation supports performance, and long - term marketization opens up the growth ceiling.
In essence, energy storage is not a "short - term trend" but an "inevitable choice" for the global energy transition:
1. When wind power and photovoltaic become the mainstream, energy storage is a "must - have option";
2. When Document No. 136 opens up the market - oriented path, energy storage has the "self - financing" ability;
3. When technological progress continuously reduces costs, energy storage has "long - term competitiveness";
4. When the explosion of AI computing power occurs, data centers become the most certain growth pole.
This market trend is not the end but the beginning of the trillion - level industrial dividend. For investors, only by looking beyond short - term fluctuations and focusing on leading enterprises with technological barriers, scale advantages, and market - adaptation capabilities can they achieve long - term returns in the golden decade of the energy storage industry.
This article is from the WeChat official account “Gelonghui APP” (ID: hkguruclub), author: Editor of Gelonghui. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.