Is it the last madness of new energy vehicles? The economics of catching the last bus before subsidy withdrawal.

In the autumn of 2025, an unprecedented display of speed and passion is unfolding in China's new energy vehicle market.

Just a few hours after the launch of the Li Auto i6, it received over 20,000 firm orders. After the HarmonyOS Smart Mobility autumn new product launch, the new AITO M7 quickly exceeded 40,000 firm orders within 24 hours. After the launch of the new NIO ES8, the number of firm orders exceeded the annual production capacity limit of 40,000 units for this year.

Amid this frenzy, a cold countdown is ticking: December 31, 2025, is not only the turning of the calendar page but also the end of the policy exempting new energy vehicles from vehicle purchase tax (with a maximum exemption of 30,000 yuan per new energy passenger vehicle) and the last window period for the "national subsidy" in 2025.

Image/New energy vehicle purchase tax policy  Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

Starting from 2026, multiple car - purchase incentives will be phased out. Consumers are rushing against time to lock in their orders, as if boarding the last welfare train. However, the production capacity and delivery systems of car - makers are frequently in distress during this sudden test.

Mr. Sun, a NIO owner in Beijing, encountered a system crash when he rushed to buy the new ES8 on September 20. He had to wait for 8 minutes to lock in his order, and his car delivery was scheduled for the end of January 2026. Although NIO promised to "cover" the purchase tax policy, the 15,000 - yuan replacement subsidy might be lost.

Is this "last madness" jointly driven by policies and the market a rational choice for consumers or a collective impulse under the bubble? When the carnival ends, who should bear the losses of consumers who cannot pick up their cars on time due to the car - maker's reasons?

1. The "Last Feast" Amid the Retreat of Purchase Tax and Subsidies

China's new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy has been in place for a decade, directly boosting the industry's penetration rate from 0.3% to over 50%. However, starting from January 1, 2026, the policy will undergo substantial adjustments: the purchase tax will be halved instead of being fully exempted, and the maximum exemption per vehicle will be only 15,000 yuan.

Image/Adjustment of the new purchase tax policy in 2026  Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

Take the long - range Tesla Model Y L as an example. Its price of 339,000 yuan is the "benchmark" for purchase tax exemption. Given that the purchase tax = naked car price ÷ 1.13 × 10%, the purchase tax for the Tesla Model Y L is 30,000 yuan. So, if you buy it in 2025, the purchase tax will be fully exempted; if you buy it in 2026, you will have to pay 15,000 yuan for the purchase tax.

Image/Tesla Model Y L  Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

This also means that for a new energy vehicle priced at over 300,000 yuan, the cost of buying the car next year will be equivalent to buying a high - end laptop, and for a model priced at over 400,000 yuan, it will be equivalent to paying for a luxury handbag. The scarcity of this "policy dividend superposition period" has become the direct driving force for stimulating consumption.

In addition to national policies, local consumption subsidies are also being phased out at an accelerated pace. Since 2025, many places have introduced subsidy policies with "limited quotas, first - come, first - served" rules, which have a superimposed effect with the purchase tax exemption.

For example, in cities like Haikou, Chengdu, and Daqing, consumers can get an additional subsidy of 3,000 - 5,000 yuan for buying new energy vehicles. When combined with a 15,000 - yuan replacement subsidy and insurance discount activities from car - makers, the total discount can reach up to 30,000 yuan. However, it should be noted that in some cities, such as Lianyungang, although there is a subsidy policy, it cannot be combined with the car scrapping and replacement subsidy. Consumers need to understand the details clearly.

Image/Local subsidy policies in Sichuan and Hainan  Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

This double - fold discount makes consumers truly feel that "the earlier you buy, the more cost - effective it is." The real - money difference has become the key factor driving consumers to place orders decisively before the end of the year.

There is a booming market for new energy vehicle consumption in the golden autumn as consumers rush to catch the last train of subsidies.

The order storms triggered by HarmonyOS Smart Mobility and NIO have become a major spectacle in the 2025 autumn auto market. After the launch of the new NIO ES8, due to the overwhelming number of orders, the official car - booking applet was even paralyzed, and many consumers faced the risk of missing out on subsidies.

In fact, behind the policy retreat is the inevitable logic of the industry's development. As the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, policy - driven development is gradually giving way to market - driven development. This transformation is not a suppression of the industry but a sign of encouraging the industry to be self - sustaining and move towards maturity. In the future, market competition will be more focused on technology, cost control, and user experience.

2. The Truth and Cost Analysis Behind Tens of Thousands of Firm Orders

Everyone has witnessed the order storm in the new energy vehicle market during this period.

Before the launch of the new AITO M7, the number of small - deposit orders exceeded 220,000, and the small - deposit orders for the Shangjie H5 also reached 150,000. Coupled with the over 10,000 orders for the Xiangjie S9T in its first week on the market, HarmonyOS Smart Mobility added over 100,000 new orders in a single week.

This popularity is not accidental but the result of the triple combination of product strength, policy window period, and marketing promotion.

In terms of product strength, the HarmonyOS cockpit installed in the AITO M7 enables seamless interconnection between mobile phones, in - car systems, and smart homes, addressing many users' pain points in interconnection. The NIO ES8 uses a silicon carbide platform, which allows the vehicle to have a range of over 600 kilometers and supports 3 - minute quick battery swapping. These core features have hit the needs of consumers. Coupled with the countdown to the purchase tax retreat, consumers understand that the cost of buying a car next year will increase, so they are naturally willing to place orders in advance.

Image/NIO ES8 silicon carbide electric drive system  Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

The time - limited price protection and delivery commitment marketing strategies launched by car - makers have further created a sense of urgency for consumers to place orders. According to industry data calculations, the year - on - year increase in new energy vehicle sales in the fourth quarter of this year may exceed 50% due to the purchase tax exemption factor alone.

Despite the impressive order data, discussions about its authenticity in the industry have never stopped. Li Bin, the chairman of NIO, once said bluntly, "If we count the orders announced by everyone, there would be 100 million vehicles. We didn't participate in this 'inflation'." His words pointed out a hidden concern in the industry: the differences in order statistics make it difficult for the data to fully reflect the real demand.

Many orders announced by car - makers are actually "small - deposit orders," where consumers only need to pay a small deposit and can cancel the order at any time. The "firm orders" that truly reflect the purchase intention usually require a deposit of 5,000 yuan or more, and there are certain conditions for order cancellation. The conversion rate between the two is often only about 10% - 30%.

Some consumers place orders with multiple brands simultaneously and only choose one car in the end, which also leads to an inflated order volume. Even worse, some dealers pay the deposit themselves to create false orders in order to meet the manufacturers' assessment indicators. Although this digital carnival can boost market confidence in the short term, it damages the industry's credibility and makes it difficult for the public to judge the real market supply and demand situation.

In addition to the direct cost differences caused by policy changes, the cost structure that consumers face when buying a car is actually more complex. For example, in terms of battery cost, the price of power batteries in 2025 has dropped to 0.4 yuan/Wh, a direct 40% decrease from the peak in 2022. Taking a vehicle equipped with a 100kWh battery pack as an example, the battery cost has dropped from 65,000 yuan to 42,000 yuan, and this cost savings is directly reflected in the car price.

Image/Prices of relevant materials for new energy power batteries  Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook, Lithium - ion Battery Research

Another example is the premium for intelligent configurations. The price reduction of core components such as lidar in mainstream intelligent driving systems has led to a gradual decline in the prices of high - end models, allowing more consumers to afford vehicles with advanced intelligent driving features.

3. Hidden Worries Beneath the Carnival: How to Deal with the "Happy Troubles"?

The booming order volume is putting unprecedented pressure on the supply chains and delivery systems of car - makers. A major test of delivery capabilities has begun. The entire industry is under the dual pressure of the supply chain and production lines.

On the supply - chain side, the demand for core components such as batteries and chips has suddenly skyrocketed. Major suppliers such as CATL and BYD Semiconductor have to work in 24 - hour shifts. Even so, some car - makers are still in a difficult situation due to the shortage of parts.

In terms of production lines, the Shanghai Gigafactory of Tesla has repeatedly increased its single - shift production capacity but still cannot meet the order demand for the Model Y. NIO has given priority to the production of the ES8 and the LeDao L90 in terms of production capacity, so other models have to make concessions. In the delivery process, many car - makers are unable to deliver vehicles to consumers on time because their logistics networks cannot keep up, resulting in vehicles piling up in ports or warehouses.

Who should bear the losses of consumers caused by non - personal reasons has become the core focus of market attention.

NIO took the lead and introduced a clear policy to cover the purchase tax for the new ES8: for orders locked in before December 31, 2025, if the delivery is postponed to 2026 due to the manufacturer's reasons, NIO will bear the difference caused by the purchase tax retreat by issuing a "purchase tax difference subsidy coupon," with a maximum deduction of 15,000 yuan.

Image/NIO's new ES8 worry - free order - locking plan  Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

It is reported that currently only NIO has clarified such a policy, and other car - makers are still watching.

Even so, it doesn't mean that users of the new ES8 can rest easy, as shown by Mr. Sun mentioned above. Mr. Sun said that he had reported the loss of the replacement subsidy to NIO's headquarters through the salesperson, and NIO "promised to study it." Obviously, there are many prospective car owners with the same concern.

As of the time of publication, NIO has not given any feedback.

As Mr. Sun said, 15,000 yuan is not a small amount. If the company does not cover the cost and the waiting time is too long, many users will definitely give up NIO and switch to other brands.

From a legal perspective, most car - purchase contracts stipulate that "car - makers are not responsible for delayed delivery due to force majeure." However, there is no clear legal definition of whether "system crash" and "insufficient production capacity" belong to "force majeure," which may lead to disputes.

In addition, the "first - come, first - served" rule for local subsidies has also added additional risks for consumers. For example, the policy in Lianyungang requires that the purchase invoice must be issued before December 31 and the subsidy application must be completed before January 10 next year. Once overdue, it will be regarded as an automatic waiver.