Ideal, fight a desperate battle
On September 26, the Li Auto i6 was officially launched. This is the last model released by Li Auto this year, and thus, Li Auto has played all its cards for the year.
This year, Li Auto still has made some achievements: it not only completed the upgrades of the L series and the Li Auto MEGA but also launched two pure - electric SUV models, accelerating the exploration of the second growth curve in the pure - electric vehicle market. However, upon closer inspection, it's not hard to find that what Li Auto has gained the most might be an indescribable bitterness.
At the beginning of the year, full of confidence, Li Auto set an ambitious annual sales target of 700,000 vehicles. By the middle of the year, the sales of its extended - range series faced pressure, and profits declined. As a result, it was forced to lower its sales target and instead bet more on the pure - electric vehicle market. Then, the debut of the Li Auto i8 was a setback, with sales in August falling below the 30,000 - vehicle mark. Looking back from Li Auto's perspective, the development trajectory in the first three quarters of 2025 is clearly not a sweet one.
Digging deeper into the reasons, on the one hand, it stems from the fierce competition in the external market. More and more automakers are focusing on the extended - range vehicle market, squeezing Li Auto's traditional comfort zone, and its market share is facing severe challenges. On the other hand, Li Auto also has its own problems that can't be ignored. Although the Li Auto MEGA has entered the sales growth stage, the full - series upgrade of the L series failed to stir up much market interest. Coupled with the unsuccessful debut of the Li Auto i8, under the influence of multiple factors, Li Auto has fallen into a rather passive development situation.
Fortunately, after timely adjustments, judging from the recent market reactions at the retail end, Li Auto's last card has achieved a fairly good result, injecting a glimmer of hope into the somewhat sluggish first three quarters.
01
Surrounded by Competitors, Extended - Range Vehicles Lose Ground
In terms of sales, Li Auto's performance this year is not satisfactory.
After the market slump in January and February, Li Auto's sales rebounded slightly in March and April, with monthly sales returning to 30,000 vehicles. Against this backdrop, Li Auto was full of confidence. Considering the full - series upgrade of the L series and the launch of two pure - electric vehicles, Li Auto set its annual sales target at 700,000 vehicles.
However, the subsequent development deviated from Li Auto's preset path. In May, driven by the upgrade, Li Auto's sales returned to the 40,000 - vehicle mark. It was thought to be the start of a sales upswing, but unexpectedly, it was the peak. After June, Li Auto's sales continued to decline, and in August, it even failed to reach the 30,000 - vehicle mark.
The core problem lies closely with the decline of the extended - range series. As one of the first automakers to enter the extended - range vehicle market, Li Auto successfully opened up the blue - ocean market for extended - range vehicles, captured consumers' minds, and built a solid brand barrier with its first - mover advantage. However, as market competition intensifies, the blue ocean has gradually turned into a red ocean, and every market gap has been quickly filled by competing models. Li Auto, which was once pioneering, is now being squeezed by competitors who are following in its footsteps.
The competitive pressure Li Auto faces mainly comes from Wenjie. From the Wenjie M5 to the new Wenjie M7, Wenjie M8, and Wenjie M9, Wenjie's product matrix is becoming clearer, and each model precisely targets Li Auto's core products. The Wenjie M5 divides the market share of the Li Auto L6, the Wenjie M7 aims at the Li Auto L7 and L8, and the Wenjie M8 and M9 directly target the Li Auto L8 and L9, forming a comprehensive "encirclement" situation.
Take the Wenjie M8, which was launched in April, as an example. Its market performance is "phenomenal." Just 45 days after the start of deliveries, the delivery volume exceeded 20,000 vehicles, and the cumulative delivery volume exceeded 80,000 vehicles four months after the launch. In contrast, Li Auto's sales have been declining since June. The market performances of the two form a sharp contrast, and Wenjie's strong rise has directly diverted Li Auto's core user group.
In addition to the direct competition from Wenjie, a number of models positioning themselves as "half - price Li Auto" have also entered the market, seizing the low - end extended - range vehicle market with low - price strategies. This impact directly affects the performance of the Li Auto L6, the sales pillar of Li Auto. In August, the sales of the L6 dropped to 11,000 vehicles, further increasing Li Auto's sales pressure.
It's worth noting that while sales declined, the average selling price of Li Auto vehicles also decreased to some extent. However, thanks to the phased increase in delivery volume in the second quarter and the effective control of average sales costs, Li Auto's net profit in the first half of the year still maintained an upward trend, reaching 1.744 billion yuan, and the vehicle gross profit margin also increased slightly to 20.3%, achieving a short - term "buffer" in terms of profitability under the pressure of sales.
But judging from the performance in the third quarter, Li Auto's short - term pressure has not been relieved. Previously, Li Auto predicted in its financial report that the vehicle delivery volume in the third quarter would be between 90,000 and 95,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decline of 37.8% - 41.1%; the corresponding quarterly revenue is expected to decrease by 38.8% - 42.1% year - on - year, dropping to 24.8 - 26.2 billion yuan. Judging from the actual delivery situation, Li Auto basically met the expectations, but this data also clearly shows that the pressure on its sales end continues, and there are no obvious signs of recovery.
02
A Poor Start, the Pure - Electric Growth Curve Hasn't Arrived Yet
Beyond external competition, the bigger problem comes from internal indecision and hesitation.
Li Auto intended to explore the second growth curve through the pure - electric SUV series, but the start of its pure - electric vehicle segment has been full of difficulties.
As the first model in Li Auto's pure - electric SUV series, the market reaction to the i8 after its launch was like a bucket of cold water poured on Li Auto. The price exceeding consumers' expectations, the complex and confusing version configurations, and the long waiting period before delivery have become obstacles for users to place orders.
After the launch of the Li Auto i8, the market reaction was disappointing. The price beyond consumers' expectations, the complex version configurations, and the long waiting period before delivery became obstacles for placing orders. Seeing the poor market feedback, Li Auto urgently adjusted its strategy, not only returning to a single configuration but also reducing the price. However, the impact of the unsuccessful debut has already been made.
The setback of the Li Auto i8 reflects Li Auto's current difficulties and hesitation: the extended - range vehicle segment is under pressure, and Li Auto urgently needs a boost from the pure - electric vehicle market. However, restricted by the pricing red line of the L series, Li Auto is cautious in pricing its pure - electric models. On one hand, it is worried that pure - electric vehicles will seize the market share of extended - range vehicles; on the other hand, it is eager to develop the pure - electric growth route. Caught in this dilemma, Li Auto has achieved little on both fronts.
After reflecting on the situation, Li Auto gave up its illusions and took bold actions in the launch of the i6.
After the launch of the new car, only one version was available. In terms of price, it is directly on par with the Li Auto L6 Pro, costing only 249,800 yuan. If the 10,000 - yuan cash discount during the initial sales period is included, the price of the Li Auto i6 drops to 239,800 yuan. In addition, the i6 also offers initial sales benefits worth 35,000 yuan that the L6 doesn't have, including a dual - chamber air suspension, a cooling and warming box, and power - operated doors.
More importantly, in addition to power and initial sales benefits, the Li Auto i6 also performs no worse than the L6 in other configurations.
In terms of space, the Li Auto i6 is 4.95 meters long and has a wheelbase of 3 meters, both better than the Li Auto L6. When compared with competitors in the same class, the Li Auto i6's space performance can compete with popular models such as the Xiaomi YU7 and the Model Y.
In terms of intelligent experience, the AD MAX intelligent driving system with a lidar is the same as that of the L6; perhaps because the Li Auto i7 was cancelled, on the i6, Li Auto even offers the rear - seat large TV and streaming - media rear - view mirror, which are high - end configurations only available on the L7.
Of course, the i6 also makes some trade - offs. To simplify the configuration, the Li Auto i6 does not have four - wheel drive as a standard configuration like the L6 but sets it as an optional feature that requires an additional payment of 20,000 yuan.
However, in the face of its highly competitive price and rich configurations, this choice seems insignificant. During a live - broadcast after the launch, Li Xinyang revealed that within 5 minutes of the launch of the Li Auto i6, over 10,000 firm orders were placed. Later, an employee from Li Auto's sales department said that the sales of the Li Auto i6 have exceeded the initial sales record of the L9.
However, behind the successful start of the Li Auto i6, there are also potential new crises. When Li Auto shifts its focus to pure - electric vehicles, the extended - range vehicle segment, which is the sales pillar, may be more affected. In the same sales market, the Li Auto i6, with its more competitive price and better configurations, will inevitably divert the user group of the Li Auto L6. As the sales leader of Li Auto, if the market share of the L6 is squeezed, it will directly affect the foundation of the extended - range vehicle segment.
Choosing pure - electric vehicles may mean losing the extended - range vehicle market, and protecting the extended - range vehicle segment makes it difficult to promote the transformation to pure - electric vehicles. Li Auto seems to have entered a dilemma of being unable to balance both. How to find a balance between the pure - electric and extended - range vehicle segments, using the popularity of the i6 to open up the pure - electric vehicle market while stabilizing the sales foundation of the extended - range vehicle segment, has become the core problem that Li Auto needs to solve next.
So far, no automaker has been able to give a perfect answer to this problem. As the new - energy vehicle market shifts from incremental competition to stock competition, the difficulties Li Auto faces may be the inevitable pain that the entire industry has to go through during the transformation of technological routes and the adjustment of product layouts. For Li Auto, in the remaining time of 2025, how to find the optimal solution in this trade - off battle not only affects the achievement of its annual target but also has a long - term impact on its position in the new - energy vehicle market.
Li Auto has played its last card for this year, but the game continues.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Automobile Commune" (ID: iAUTO2010), author: Sai Jiatong, editor: He Zengrong, and is published by 36Kr with authorization.