The missing piece of the low-altitude economy puzzle

01

Without the "Red Envelope Rain" Moment, the Industry Will "Decline Prematurely"

On the Chinese New Year's Eve in 2015, in front of hundreds of millions of TVs broadcasting the Spring Festival Gala, people held up their mobile phones and aimed at the QR codes on the screen to scan. The red envelope rain instantly spread across the country. In just a few hours, hundreds of millions of scans were completed.

In the 1990s, when the QR code was invented by Masahiro Hara, an engineer at Denso Wave, a subsidiary of Toyota, its goal was merely to meet the needs of Toyota for tracing automobile parts👇

The inspiration for the QR code came from Go.

The Go board has 19×19 = 361 intersection points. Each point has three states: black, white, and empty:

Theoretically, the number of possible situations is 3 to the power of 361, approximately 10 to the power of 172.

This number is far greater than the total number of atoms in the known universe (approximately 10 to the power of 80). Even supercomputers cannot crack Go through the brute - force method.

● For the first move at the beginning of the game, there are 361 possibilities.

● For the second move, there are 360 possibilities. Each move leads the game in a different direction.

The ever - changing game of Go can store a large amount of information — which became the inspiration for the "black - and - white grid" QR code.

source: pixabay

However, this tool for tracing factory parts, which is far more efficient than barcodes, has always remained in the corners of manufacturing warehouses and advertisements.

It wasn't until the Spring Festival Gala in 2015.

In 2011, WeChat launched the "Scan" function, which accelerated the popularity of QR codes and provided the necessary conditions for the "rainstorm" to occur.

With the launch of the QR code payment function by Alipay — after the frenzy of the red envelope rain during the 2015 Spring Festival Gala, QR codes were quickly integrated into China's vast and diverse business ecosystem: payment and clearing systems, e - commerce and food delivery networks, travel and social applications, and financial and data back - ends.

The black - and - white grids once confined to workshops and factories have finally become a generation of business infrastructure. In 2025, the market size of mobile QR codes in China is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.

source: pexels

Innovation is indeed great, but it cannot change the world alone —

If it cannot prove its huge commercial potential in the short term, all the hype around it may fade away, leading to the industry "declining prematurely."

Today, eVTOL (electric Vertical Take - off and Landing) is another super terminal after new energy vehicles and large aircraft. It is no exaggeration to say that it has attracted wide attention.

There is active financing at the capital end. In 2024, the financing amount in the single eVTOL track in China reached 8.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 310%. According to relevant statistical data from IT Juzi, as of August 2025, the investment and financing amount in the low - altitude economy field in China reached 11.594 billion yuan.

There is strong policy support. "Low - altitude economy" was included in the seven emerging industries in the government work report in 2024.

In the future, for the C - end, it will change people's travel methods and life maps, just like cars entering families and mobile phones entering pockets. For the B - end, it is another super platform, driving technological innovation in multiple industries and reshaping the industrial ecosystem.

However, for eVTOL to reach this future, it must be integrated into a complete ecosystem. Four pieces of the puzzle are indispensable: infrastructure, manufacturing, standards, and a commercial closed - loop.

Starship Knowledge Manufacturing has previously written about three of them👇

● Manufacturing — The current progress of the industrial chain of Chinese eVTOL.

The Strengths and Weaknesses of the Super Seed eVTOL: Upstream and downstream enterprises are all looking for new opportunities;

● Low - altitude infrastructure — A huge and crucial support system behind the low - altitude economy.

eVTOL Series 3: The Awakening of Air Infrastructure: Various places are competing to build take - off and landing points and route networks;

● Standards — Chinese eVTOL is ultimately intended to fly out of China and be sold globally.

The Westward Journey of Chinese eVTOL: The differences in airworthiness progress and paths between China and foreign countries.

Now that the "entry tickets" are gradually available, the next thing to focus on is the issue of making money.

Then the problem arises.

The progress of the fourth piece of the puzzle (commercial closed - loop) is very slow. The "red envelope rain" moment seems far away.

In the view of Starship Knowledge Manufacturing, there is a huge gap between "getting the certificate" and "making money." This means that the current prosperity of the low - altitude economy is largely driven by policy and capital expectations, rather than real market demand. The industry urgently needs to shift from "flying for the certificate" to "flying for profit."

If it cannot prove its economic viability in the short term, the capital frenzy will eventually fade away, leading to the industry "declining prematurely."

The following part of Starship Knowledge Manufacturing discusses two issues around the eVTOL commercial closed - loop:

1. Looking globally:

Europe and the United States "got up early but missed the bus"; China is developing rapidly, but it has also not found the breakthrough point for commercial implementation.

2. Focusing on China:

The differentiated explorations in different regions of China are valuable soil for the industry's explosion. Why are the business strategies in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Sichuan - Chongqing region, and the Greater Bay Area so different? Where will this difference lead the industrial chain?

The "red envelope rain" moment of Chinese eVTOL will not come naturally. It needs to be actively designed and created.

02

Global Challenges

The dilemmas of the low - altitude economy in the United States and Europe have shown that capital has limited patience and risk tolerance for "hard - tech" industries that require long - term cultivation and have uncertain prospects.

On the premise that no one has found a suitable business model, the advantage of China's low - altitude economy lies in its strong industrial organization ability. Through strong top - level design and cross - regional coordination, it can quickly unify standards and integrate resources — to create an initial market.

source: unsplash

Since the Wright brothers' flight in 1903, the Western aviation industry has continuously evolved with the advantages of war and early industrialization:

From the jet planes in World War II to the moon - landing program and vertical take - off and landing experiments (XV - 3) during the Cold War, a complete set of aircraft design and regulatory systems have long been established.

eVTOL is an emerging terminal, but its industrial chain is highly similar to that of traditional aircraft:

The upstream covers core components such as materials, batteries, and motors; the mid - stream includes overall design, manufacturing, test flights, and airworthiness certification; the downstream involves the construction of the operation system, infrastructure, and air traffic control rules. Although eVTOL uses new motor and airframe designs to replace traditional aviation engines and faces more complex low - altitude airspace than civil aviation... the century - long industrial accumulation in aerospace gives Europe and the United States a certain first - mover advantage👇

In the power and motor segment, there are generally two global R & D approaches:

Either rely on "multiple - motor redundancy" or "single - motor redundancy." The former involves hanging a dozen small motors on the wings so that the aircraft can still fly even if several motors fail; the latter means that each motor has two internal systems so that it can continue to fly even if half of the system fails.

From military aircraft to mainline airliners, Europe has been focusing on single - motor redundancy for decades: Twin - engine aircraft must be able to fly on a single engine; avionics systems often have triple or even quadruple redundancy backups; and power systems also have dual - channel mutual support. This concept has been written into the airworthiness regulations of the FAA and EASA.

Therefore, when they entered the eVTOL track, this thinking was naturally applied to electric propulsion. For example, the motors of Joby, a major US air taxi company, all adopt a dual - winding redundant design to ensure that the aircraft can continue to fly even if a single motor fails.

In addition, Europe and the United States have accumulated a lot of experience in magnetic materials and control logic for high - power - density motors, enabling them to achieve a single - motor power density close to 25 kW/kg — five times that of ordinary eVTOL motors.

source: pexels

Structural materials are also a common link between large aircraft and eVTOL. For every 1 kg reduced in the airframe, more space is available for range and payload — carbon fiber - reinforced composites have become the core that cannot be bypassed.

Composites themselves can be further subdivided: High - strength carbon fibers are used for wings and load - bearing beams, and multi - directional laminates that need to balance stiffness and damage tolerance are used for connection parts, etc.

Europe and the United States have nearly half a century of experience in these areas: Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 have increased the proportion of carbon fiber wings to over 50% and have standardized processes such as automatic fiber placement, out - of - autoclave molding, and non - destructive testing as global standards. For eVTOL manufacturers, these processes can be almost directly replicated, allowing them to find a balance between strength, weight, and consistency.

These are the advantages extended from the Western century - old aviation industry.

source: unsplash

Therefore, as early as a decade ago, Airbus proposed the concept of "CityAirbus (urban air taxi)", and Volocopter in Germany was once regarded as the "European model." France, the UK, and Spain all made high - profile layouts, and the EU established a "U - Space" (European unmanned air traffic management system) framework for unified management of low - altitude airspace.

It sounds quite comprehensive — With industry giants leading the way and the supply chain system accumulated over decades in civil aviation seizing the right to speak in global standard - setting;

There are also new players like Joby at the forefront, supported by capital, and leading the way in passing the FAA certification process with high - power - density motors and redundant designs; Europe and the United States also have a certain first - mover advantage in overall aircraft design.

However, the reality is that there are no real air taxis flying in the skies of the United States and Europe:

One company after another has burned through its financing, and product development has come to a halt.

At the end of 2024, two German flying car companies, Volocopter and Lilium, announced their bankruptcies. As of mid - 2025, U - Space has still not been truly implemented.

The hope of the entire low - altitude economy in the United States, the air taxi company Joby, completed its first test flight across public airports in 2025. However, Joby is just telling stories on the NASDAQ. In fact, its annual revenue is only $15,000, with a shortfall of 98.7%. And it relies entirely on government contracts.

source: Joby

In ten years, a high - speed rail network can be built, and the annual sales of new energy vehicles can exceed tens of millions. The opportunity has been missed. The United States and Europe got up early but still missed the bus. The reason is that — financing is soaring in the sky, while the market is struggling on the ground.

On the one hand, due to the hollowing out of industries in the United States and Europe, the relatively low - cost mass production of hardware required for the commercial implementation of eVTOL cannot be achieved.

For example, some composites cannot support low - cost mass production; batteries are even more restricted by raw materials and multiple industrial shortcomings👇

eVTOL does not use ordinary "automotive - grade batteries" but "aviation - grade batteries" with higher thresholds — they are more demanding in terms of energy density, thermal safety, etc.