The iPhone 17 has triggered an upgrade wave, and Wedbush has significantly raised its target price for Apple.

As the sales of the iPhone 17 series soar, Wedbush raised its price target for Apple from $270 to $310 on Monday. Analysts at the firm said the strong demand after the new product launch indicates that Apple is entering a "real replacement cycle" after years of lackluster product releases.

Apple's stock price soared more than 4% on Monday, approaching its all-time high.

On September 19, Apple's new generation of iPhone smartphones officially went on sale, including four models: iPhone 17, iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max. Various signs suggest that this is the strongest start for the iPhone in recent years.

Dan Ives, the chief analyst at Wedbush, said he was "pleasantly surprised" by the demand trend.

Wedbush expects the demand for the iPhone 17 to be about 10% - 15% higher than that of last year's iPhone 16. Checks on the Asian supply chain have shown that the planned production volume of the base and Pro models will increase by about 20%.

The shipping time also reflects a similar situation: the iPhone 17 Pro Max quickly became the hardest-to-buy model, and delivery times in many places have been postponed by several weeks.

Ives said he originally expected this replacement cycle to be "good but not outstanding." However, the huge backlog of about 315 million iPhones that haven't been upgraded in four years, combined with minor design improvements, is driving better-than-expected replacement demand and helping Apple find a "winning formula that works right from the start."

The firm believes that Wall Street's general forecast of Apple's shipments in fiscal year 2026 - 230 million units - is too low, and a more reasonable range should be 240 - 250 million units.

For now, the iPhone Pro Max seems to be the most popular model at the retail end, but the online sales of the standard iPhone 17 have exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, the Air is still in abundant supply in most markets. However, Wedbush said that based on store surveys and user feedback, the Air "could be a pleasant surprise in this replacement cycle."

Other investment banks have also caught similar signals. Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan pointed out that the extended waiting times prove that this year's demand is stronger than last year's. JPMorgan raised its price target for Apple to $280 accordingly.

UBS was more cautious, saying the demand was "mixed": the acceptance of the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max was lower than that of the iPhone 16 during the same period, while the performance of the new Air was roughly on par with last year's iPhone 16 Plus.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily", author: Xia Junxiong, published by 36Kr with permission.