Conversation between Altman and Silicon Valley investment tycoons: In the 2030s, Fortune Global 500 companies will disappear at an accelerated pace.
- In the 2030s, Fortune Global 500 companies will face unprecedented survival pressure and may accelerate their demise. This is especially true for software companies, as "instant software generation" will disrupt the existing SaaS model.
- AI will become a "virtual colleague" in corporate operations, bringing revolutionary efficiency, especially in software development, customer support, and sales.
- Altman called on companies to invest computing power in scientific research. AI has the potential to drive significant progress such as curing cancer and commercializing nuclear fusion.
- Altman believes that the future efficiency improvement of AI may lead to the popularization of basic necessities of life and a decrease in costs. However, humans may invest their surplus wealth in absurd "conspicuous consumption games."
On September 10th, news emerged that a recent conversation in Silicon Valley has drawn people's attention to the future. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, sat side by side with legendary investor Vinod Khosla, discussing how artificial intelligence will change the world.
Altman said, "In the next eighteen months, the capabilities of AI will increase from 10 to 100, but humans may no longer be as shocked as before because we have accepted that AGI is just around the corner."
01. The existing Fortune 500 companies will accelerate their demise
During their conversation, the topic focused on "the world from 2035 to 2050."
Altman believes that AI can be a powerful multiplier that effectively amplifies human pursuits, enabling a single person to achieve what currently requires a large team. He cited science - fiction concepts such as building a Dyson sphere and deploying nanobots as examples, pointing out that these seemingly unattainable civilization - level projects may become feasible with the expansion potential of AI. This view subverts the traditional perception of productivity: AI is not just a tool for automation but an important carrier for amplifying human capabilities.
Altman linked this change to the demise of traditional corporate structures. When Khosla proposed the view that "Fortune 500 companies will disappear at a faster rate in the 2030s," Altman said that although he couldn't predict the exact time, his intuition told him the rate would be faster.
He particularly pointed out that software companies are especially vulnerable in this trend. He predicted that in the future, users will be able to instantly generate customized software that meets their needs by "inputting instructions into a chatbot," thereby bypassing the current SaaS (Software as a Service) giants. This "instant software generation" model may impact the current multi - billion - dollar software corporate empires. "In the past, I thought I understood the operating rules of software companies, but in a world where any software can be 'instantly generated,' these rules will be subverted," Altman said. He believes that the growth of OpenAI itself is a typical example of "the accelerating effect of new companies quickly replacing old ones."
02. "Virtual colleagues" will change the way companies operate
On the employment front, there were some differences in the discussions between Altman and Khosla.
Khosla believes that after 2035, AI will cover at least 80% of jobs in the intellectual work field, including doctors, therapists, oncologists, structural engineers, chip designers, salespeople, marketers, and accountants.
Altman, on the other hand, believes that not all jobs are suitable for takeover, and human preferences will give rise to new human - centered jobs. For example, although students may learn more from Wikipedia, people are often motivated by the "emotional connection with real teachers." "Maybe an AI teacher will be smarter, but humans still long to be noticed and encouraged by another person. This is a deep - seated biological instinct," Altman said. He admitted that AI will surpass humans in professional fields such as investment and scientific research, but humans are still irreplaceable in roles such as education, companionship, and care.
In the corporate field, Altman foresees that "virtual colleagues" will completely change operations. He emphasized that AI software engineers will be the most disruptive force in the short term, enabling teams to "outperform" competitors through accelerated development. He pointed out that customer support and outbound sales have begun to shift to AI, and the proportion of tasks handled by AI is steadily increasing.
Altman said that companies should invest their entire computing clusters in solving truly difficult problems, especially in the field of scientific discovery, which may bring about more fundamental changes. He believes that AI will cure cancer or commercialize nuclear fusion, creating huge value and benefiting society through cheaper medical care and energy.
03. AI capabilities will increase tenfold in the next 18 months
Altman predicted that in the next 18 months (by the end of 2026), although the capabilities of AI may increase from "10" to "100," society may not be as shocked as before because people have begun to "accept that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is coming."
Altman's explanation of the driving factors behind technological progress is also novel and practical. He attributes it to the "Scaling Laws": better algorithms, more powerful computing power, and more abundant data. He compared this trend to historical technological innovations such as transistors, emphasizing that it is the accumulation of incremental efforts rather than a miraculous breakthrough.
Notably, he believes that AI will accelerate its own research process: through the collaboration between humans and AI, AI can gradually generate more code, test new model architectures, and ultimately independently propose and verify hypotheses. This "messy but efficient joint acceleration" model may drive the development of the entire technology ecosystem, including data centers and chips, at an unprecedented speed.
At the corporate level, Altman predicted that the efficiency improvement brought about by AI may trigger a "deflationary effect." He envisioned that basic necessities of life such as water, food, medical care, and education will become affordable for everyone. This deflation may generate a large amount of surplus wealth, and human "social instincts" may prompt them to invest this wealth in the "most absurd conspicuous consumption games," such as driving up the price of Leonardo da Vinci's paintings to trillions of dollars or galaxies to quadrillions of dollars. He also emphasized that AI will bring global fairness: billions of people will be able to access AGI, medical advice, educational resources, and software for free. He refuted the concern that "the world is not ready," pointing out that historical experience shows that new technologies will ultimately benefit a wide range of people - just like the decrease in electricity prices or breakthroughs in cancer treatment.
This article is from "Tencent Technology," author: Jin Lu, published by 36Kr with authorization.