Finally, NIO "has seen the light", but can it really "be reborn"?
After releasing its first-quarter earnings report on June 3rd, which showed a continued significant loss, coupled with a precarious net cash position, NIO's stock price once retraced to a historical low of only $3.4. For a detailed review of the first-quarter earnings report, please refer to "NIO: At a Critical Juncture, Can It Make It to the Finals?"
However, since the release of the first-quarter earnings report, NIO has successively launched two new cars, the L90 with "more features at the same price" and the new platform-based ES8. Currently, the stock price has doubled (100% increase) since its low in April. The core reason for this increase lies in the great success of the two consecutive models, the L90, and although the NIO ES8 is still in the pre-order stage and not officially launched, it already has a strong number of pre-orders.
Behind the increasing orders, at this critical juncture of NIO's cash flow, Li Bin, the boss, has also realized that at the launch event of the new ES8, he said bluntly, "It's difficult for NIO to compete in the market if it continues to maintain high prices... The most important thing is for NIO to survive!"
At this point, Dolphin Research's concerns about NIO are as follows:
1. Why are the order volumes of NIO's two consecutive models, the L90 and the ES8, so strong?
2. What marginal changes have occurred in NIO's fundamentals?
3. Is it highly likely that NIO will achieve break-even in the fourth quarter?
4. Can NIO's cycle of hit models continue?
The following is a detailed analysis
I. Why are the order volumes of NIO's two consecutive models, the L90 and the ES8, so strong?
a. The product definition of the LeDao L90 is more in line with user needs:
The LeDao L90 is priced between 265,800 yuan and 299,800 yuan, a reduction of 14,000 - 22,000 yuan compared to the pre-sale price of 279,900 - 320,000 yuan. In terms of pricing, the LeDao L90 is also highly competitive.
Dolphin Research believes that the reasons for the success of the LeDao L90 on the product side can be summarized as follows:
① It precisely addresses consumers' pain points of "large space + high cost-performance" with the concept of "size equality":
With an affordable price (supported by the downward penetration of NIO's high-end brand power), the LeDao L90 starts at only 265,800 yuan, lower than the starting price of the similarly sized AITO M9 pure-electric version. It also has a greater space advantage than the Xiaomi YU7, making it more suitable for family users and achieving a differentiated competition;
② It solves the energy consumption problem of large pure-electric SUVs with a comprehensive energy replenishment system of "battery swapping + 900V high-voltage fast charging";
③ It standardizes the comfort features that users can directly perceive, such as "refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas";
④ It benefits from the downward penetration of NIO's brand power;
⑤ It uses the BAAS model to reduce the vehicle price and reach more consumers.
At the same time, in terms of delivery, it is delivered as soon as it is launched:
Recall that after the brand of the L60 penetrated downward, the number of locked orders exceeded 30,000 within 72 hours. However, due to the chaotic delivery schedule and users' concerns about the sustainability of the national subsidy plan in 2025 in the fourth quarter, which was ultimately due to insufficient supply chain preparation, it missed the best sales window.
The LeDao L90 has learned from the failure of the LeDao L60 model and is delivered as soon as it is launched, preventing the risk of users switching orders.
b. The NIO ES8 has been significantly upgraded and its price has been reduced
The order volume of the NIO ES8 has also far exceeded expectations. According to interviews, the order volume of the NIO ES8 within the same period has exceeded that of the LeDao L90 during its launch period.
From actual data, during the first 4 days of the pre-sale of the LeDao L90, the number of pre-orders was 30,000 - 35,000 units. By the 3rd day of the pre-sale of the NIO ES8 (as of August 23rd), the number of pre-orders had already exceeded 30,000 units.
Dolphin Research believes that the success of the NIO ES8 also follows the hit model strategy of the LeDao:
① An attractive price:
Compared with the old NIO ES8 priced between 498,000 and 598,000 yuan, the new ES8 is priced between only 416,800 and 456,800 yuan, a reduction of 80,000 - 140,000 yuan. Under the BAAS model, the price has dropped to 308,800 - 348,800 yuan, reaching a wider range of consumers (those with a budget of 300,000 - 500,000 yuan);
② It also follows the trend of large size:
The ES8 is larger in size compared to pure-electric SUVs in the same price range (the ES8 is larger than the newly launched AITO M8);
③ It has been significantly upgraded in terms of performance compared to the old ES8, switching from the NT2.0 platform to the NT3.0 platform
Since the new ES8 has switched from the NT2.0 platform to the NT3.0 platform, the NT3.0 platform has improved high-voltage fast charging (from 800V to 900V) and the electronic and electrical architecture (from distributed domain control to central computing architecture). At the same time, the lightweight design has also significantly reduced energy consumption.
Therefore, the new ES8 has been significantly upgraded in terms of vehicle size, battery capacity, driving range, fast charging system, and various comfort and luxury features, achieving more features at a lower price.
In addition to being equipped with a full-domain 900V architecture, a standard 102-kWh battery, and Nappa leather seats, the new ES8 also has some unique features, such as a "mobile dressing room".
In terms of delivery, the NIO ES8 has also prepared its production capacity in advance. Mass production of the ES8 has started before its official launch in late September.
II. Has NIO's product "awakened"?
Dolphin Research believes that from the product side, NIO has the following changes:
a. A clearer product positioning and stronger brand differentiation
In terms of brand positioning, LeDao targets families, serving "pragmatic large families" and is more for household use. Therefore, LeDao products sacrifice some intelligent features but gain larger space that users can better perceive and maximize comfort features (standard refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas).
According to interviews, NIO's main brand targets the middle class in society, users who are more business-oriented but also consider family needs. Therefore, in terms of product positioning:
1. It focuses on the business + family direction: ET9 + ES8 (business with large families) + ES7 (business with small families)
2. It serves users who pursue self-feeling and self-fulfillment: ET5, ET5T, EC6, EC7
b. Focus on areas where users have the strongest perception with lower costs and better understand customer needs
As in the product definition of the L90: Through in-depth research on user needs, increasing the vehicle body by 10 cm only costs an additional 1,000 yuan. The design of the LeDao L90 obviously sacrifices intelligent features to make way for larger size and comfort features.
But in the product definition of the ES8: In addition to the obvious improvement in hardware configuration brought about by the upgrade of the vehicle manufacturing platform, NIO also focuses more on user needs. For example, there has been a significant improvement in luxury and comfort features compared to the old model, and these features are standardized.
c. Platform iteration: The competitiveness of the NT3.0 platform has been enhanced
Comparing Li Auto and NIO, Li Auto has always benefited from exploring the blue ocean market and the product dividend of its "extended-range six-seater SUV". Through superior space and intelligent cockpit experience and advanced product configurations such as refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas, it has enjoyed the dividends of sales and revenue growth in the past 2 - 3 years.
In contrast, NIO's NT2.0 platform has suffered from product definition mistakes. The NT2.0 platform has overloaded features, resulting in difficulty in reducing costs (for example, it uses 4 NVIDIA Orin-X chips and a high-strength steel-aluminum hybrid body). Its pure-electric driving range and fast charging ability are far lower than those of its peers, and it hopes to rely on battery swapping to solve all problems.
In an interview, Li Bin also mentioned that the R & D and product definition of the second-generation ES8 may be considered a mistake from today's perspective, leading to inflated costs and a price gap between the ES6 and ES8.
The upgraded NT3.0 platform has not only improved the core pain points of pure-electric vehicles in terms of driving range and fast charging but also standardized comfort features such as "refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas", significantly improving the product definition mistakes of the NT2.0 platform models.
d. The price is much better than market expectations
Judging from the pricing of the LeDao L90, the market originally expected it to be a vehicle priced in the 300,000 - yuan range. However, this time the LeDao L90 starts at only 265,800 yuan, far exceeding market expectations.
Similarly, regarding the price of the old ES8, NIO also mentioned in an interview that the positioning of the old ES8 was off. After subsidies and tax incentives, the first-generation ES8 was a "400,000 - yuan product", but the second-generation ES8's price soared to 500,000 yuan, causing NIO to miss the main high - end market segment of 400,000 yuan in the past two or three years.
The mission of the new ES8 is to correct this mistake. Its starting price has been reduced by 80,000 - 140,000 yuan compared to the old model to 416,800 - 456,800 yuan (in the 400,000 - yuan range). With the BAAS model, it can reach consumers in the 300,000 - yuan range.
e. The previous technological accumulation has achieved a certain technological leading advantage:
A large front trunk and higher interior space utilization: NIO's lightweight and integration technologies are currently ahead of its peers, and these technologies can create more space.
For example, both the LeDao L90 and the NIO ES8 have pioneered large front trunks (240L/230L), mainly achieved through the miniaturization of the electric drive system, the integration of the thermal management module, and the fact that the battery - swapping mode does not require a large battery pack. In this regard, they have an advantage over extended - range models (extended - range models take up space due to the engine).
At the same time, the lightweight design also helps to reduce energy consumption: By minimizing and integrating components to reduce the vehicle's weight, it reduces energy consumption, extends the driving range, and also creates a larger front trunk.
The battery technology roadmap of "chargeable, swappable, and upgradable" enables the 85 - kWh and 102 - kWh battery packs to achieve the same driving range performance while being about 200 kg lighter than competitors' solutions, optimizing costs and user experience.
Behind the creation of hit models with lower prices and higher configurations, Dolphin Research also sees that NIO's fundamentals are indeed improving marginally:
① Adjustment of the delivery schedule and enhanced organizational structure capabilities
Previously, the chaotic delivery of the L60 led to a short cycle of the hit model. This time, the LeDao L90 was delivered on the day of its launch, indicating an improvement in organizational structure capabilities, which helps to extend the cycle of new hit models through the following ways:
a. Communicate with suppliers in advance;
b. Make user - essential features standard and reduce complex optional features, so that pre - produced vehicles can be directly delivered;
c. Tighten the entire chain of sales, delivery, and operation, making the process from the arrival of display cars to test - drive arrangements and delivery more compact and efficient.
② Reduction of BOM costs:
a. In terms of design and R & D: Focus on areas where users have the strongest perception and eliminate the previous over - loading of features on the NT2.0 platform
In terms of design, reduce the aluminum content: According to research, the aluminum content in the new ES8 is indeed lower than that of the previous model, but it still maintains good strength and safety.
Reduce costs through self - developed chips: NIO's self - developed NX9031 chip is the area with the largest cost reduction. The NT2.0 used 4 NVIDIA Orin - X chips, and the cost of each vehicle has been reduced by 10,000 yuan.
Reduce energy consumption through lightweight design: By minimizing and integrating components to reduce the vehicle's weight, it reduces energy consumption, extends the driving range, and also creates a larger front trunk.
b. Reduce costs through scale:
Share the supply chain between LeDao and NIO's main brand: Both the LeDao L90 and the NIO ES8 are based on the NT3.0 platform, enabling the reuse of the electric drive/motor system and reducing SKUs to achieve platform - based and scale - based cost reduction.
c. Reduce costs through the supply chain: Can it replicate XPeng's turnaround story?
Referring to previous interviews with XPeng, organizational restructuring and supply chain reform were the main drivers of XPeng's turnaround. After the initial failure of the XPeng G9's launch in 2023, Volkswagen, as a shareholder, analyzed the XPeng G9 and found that the parts procurement price of the XPeng G9 was 20% higher than that of its peers, making it difficult to reduce the price. However, without price cuts, the cars couldn't be sold, resulting in greater losses.
He Xiaopeng quickly realized the problem and launched a reform plan in early 2023, replacing senior executives. From 2023 to 202