Can Optimus really create 80% of Tesla's future value?
On September 7th, Tesla launched a Weibo account named "Tesla AI" and posted its first Weibo saying "I've been working hard to improve my figure", showcasing the new version of the Optimus humanoid robot.
Image source: X
This Weibo almost represents the global launch of Optimus. As early as September 2nd, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in reply to a netizen that about 80% of Tesla's future value will come from Optimus.
In sharp contrast, Tesla's automotive business is declining.
According to Reuters, after Tesla's sales in July decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, the sales of its China-made electric vehicles in August decreased by 4% year-on-year. The situation in the European market is even bleaker. Data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) shows that Tesla's sales in the European market in July plummeted by 40.2% year-on-year, and its market share shrank from 1.4% in the same period last year to 0.8%. This is the seventh consecutive month of market share contraction for the company.
Against this background, Musk is betting on a robot that is 173 cm tall and weighs 56 kg.
Can Optimus really support 80% of Tesla's future business?
01 The Source of Musk's Confidence
The experience accumulated in the automotive business has saved Optimus a lot of detours, which is also an important reason why Musk dares to put forward the "80% value theory".
On the one hand, Optimus shortens the technology maturity period through technology reuse.
In terms of visual perception, it directly reuses the visual perception algorithm architecture of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and is equipped with an Autopilot-level camera module of the same origin as the car. It replaces the costly lidar through algorithm optimization, significantly reducing hardware investment.
In terms of mechanical structure, the knee joint of Optimus adopts a double-pivot design, and the principle of its linear actuator is the same as that of the suspension system adjustment mechanism of the Model Y. The energy storage device realizes integrated thermal management through vertical layout, and this solution is directly derived from the thermal management technology of automotive batteries. In terms of hand design, the hand of the third-generation model has 22 degrees of freedom, of which 17 are actively driven, using a hybrid transmission scheme of planetary gearbox and tendon rope. It not only inherits the precision manufacturing experience of automotive gearboxes but also reduces the subsequent maintenance cost through the external drive method.
It is worth noting that the boundary of technology reuse also extends to the data and AI ecosystem level. With a global inventory of over 5 million Tesla cars, the PB-level road condition data generated every day is nourishing Optimus' environmental perception model in reverse. Through cooperation with NVIDIA's Omniverse platform, this data will be transformed into virtual training scenarios for the robot, helping Optimus master complex actions such as opening doors and carrying objects.
On the other hand, Optimus effectively reduces costs by sharing the supply chain.
Optimus largely follows the supplier system of the Model Y. While reducing the cooperation and communication costs, it can also lower the prices of components through large-scale procurement. For example, Green Harmonic provides harmonic reducers for Optimus and also provides reducers for the steering system of the Model Y.
This strategy of technology reuse and supply chain sharing has created a huge cost gap between Optimus and traditional robot companies. Take Boston Dynamics' Atlas robot as an example. It relies on dedicated servo motors and hydraulic systems, and the single-unit cost is as high as one million US dollars. Through sharing the supply chain, the price of Optimus is expected to be controlled between 20,000 and 30,000 US dollars after large-scale production.
02 Realistic Obstacles to the 80% Value Theory
Although Optimus has inherent advantages, its "implementation" process is far behind expectations, and the mass production problem has become the main obstacle to realizing its value.
As of July 2025, the actual production volume of Tesla's Optimus robots was only a few hundred units, less than one-tenth of the original plan of 5,000 units. This figure is in sharp contrast to the goal set by Musk at the beginning of the year. He claimed at that time that 5,000 to 10,000 Optimus robots would be produced in 2025, and the production volume would reach 50,000 to 100,000 units in 2026.
While the mass production is lagging, Tesla's overall performance is also under pressure. Tesla's second-quarter financial report shows that the company's overall revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the net profit declined by 20.7%. The vehicle delivery volume decreased by 13% year-on-year to 384,000 units, hitting a new low since the fourth quarter of 2022. The decline in performance directly squeezed the R & D resources of Optimus. The components originally purchased for the robot were preferentially allocated to the automobile production line due to the tight supply chain, further delaying the mass production process.
Image source: Tesla's financial report
Challenges at the technical level are becoming more prominent.
Among them, the most critical is the design problem of the robotic hand. The human hand has 27 bones and 34 muscles and can achieve 24 degrees of freedom. The robotic hand needs to simulate the degrees of freedom of the human hand and achieve high-degree-of-freedom movement in a limited space, which has extremely high requirements for the strength, weight, and wear resistance of the material. According to information from the technology media Information, Tesla has encountered major technical problems in robotic hand technology, resulting in a large number of basically completed robots being idle in the factory due to the lack of hand and forearm components.
Although the cost is controlled by relying on cameras and algorithm optimization, in complex environments such as rain and fog occlusion, strong light and backlight, the pure vision system is prone to object recognition delays and may misjudge low obstacles as the ground. In dynamic scenarios with a large flow of people such as shopping malls, its perception range is also difficult to cover all-dimensional risks.
In addition to the mass production and technical problems, the risk of raw materials in the upstream of the supply chain is also a major obstacle to the implementation of Optimus. China's export control of rare earth resources has directly choked Optimus' "throat". The arm joints of Optimus rely on high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets. According to the analysis of Guohai Securities, a single robot needs to consume 3.4 kg of neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials. If the production capacity reaches one million units, the annual demand will reach 3,400 tons, accounting for about 2.6% of the global output.
China controls 98% of the global supply of terbium oxide and 99% of the global supply of dysprosium oxide and has included some medium and heavy rare earth-related items in the export control list. Tesla has to apply to China for an export license to ensure that the magnets are "only used for civilian robots". Although Tesla is actively researching "rare-earth-free motors" and seeking alternative supplies from Australia, Africa and other places, it takes a long time to establish a new supply chain, and it is difficult to get rid of the dependence in the short term.
Image source: Guohai Securities
Image source: Huajing Industry Research Institute
03 The Gap Between Ideal and Reality
For Optimus to create 80% of Tesla's future value, the difficulty is far greater than that of the current automotive business.
Deutsche Bank predicts that by 2035, Optimus' annual revenue will reach $10 billion, and the sales volume will be 200,000 units. By 2050, the global market size of humanoid robots is expected to reach $1 trillion.
Tesla's revenue in 2024 was about $97.69 billion. If Optimus is to contribute 80% of the value, its annual revenue needs to reach $390.8 billion (calculated based on Tesla's 2024 revenue). Compared with Deutsche Bank's prediction that "Optimus' annual revenue will reach $10 billion in 2035", it is 39 times higher, and it will occupy about 39% of the global humanoid robot market. However, Tesla's current share in the global pure electric vehicle market is only 17.6%. Judging from the market performance of its existing core business, it is not easy for Optimus to capture 39% of the humanoid robot market.
Image source: Deutsche Bank
Meanwhile, external competition is accelerating. According to the preliminary statistics of the New Strategy Humanoid Robot Industry Research Institute, as of April 2025, the number of global humanoid robot ontology enterprises has exceeded 300, and the number of Chinese enterprises has exceeded 150. The rapid rise of Chinese enterprises has made the competition more intense.
Specifically, Dobot Atom of Yuejiang Technology has the ability of dexterous operation and humanoid straight-knee walking and can perform actions such as picking up food and pouring milk. Its starting price is only 199,000 yuan. Walker S2 of Ubtech, with its globally first - created autonomous hot-swappable battery system, can achieve autonomous battery swapping in 3 minutes and 7×24-hour uninterrupted operation. It can be described as the "chosen worker".
Goldman Sachs' prediction is relatively conservative. Data shows that the total global humanoid robot market in 2035 will be $38 billion, and even in the most optimistic scenario, it will only be $205 billion. The global humanoid robot shipment volume in 2027 will be 76,000 units, and it will rise to 1.38 million units in 2035.
Image source: Goldman Sachs
Image source: Goldman Sachs
Even if Optimus can successfully capture nearly 39% of the global market share, the maximum shipment volume in 2035 will be 538,200 units. Calculated based on the revenue target of $390.8 billion, the price of each Optimus will reach $726,100. However, Musk's goal is to control the cost between $20,000 and $30,000 after large-scale production. This price not only deviates far from the original intention of cost control but also will completely lose market competitiveness.
Looking at the growth rate, currently, the actual production volume of Optimus is only a few hundred units. Even if, as Musk said, the production capacity reaches 100,000 units in 2026, to increase from 100,000 units to 538,200 units in 2035, the annual growth rate needs to be maintained at about 17%. And to increase the revenue from $3 billion to $390.8 billion, the annual growth rate needs to exceed 70% (calculated based on achieving a revenue of $390.8 billion in 2035), which is extremely difficult.
More importantly, even in the most optimistic scenario predicted by Goldman Sachs, the global humanoid robot market size in 2035 will be $205 billion. Even if Optimus successfully captures 39% of the global market share, it can only get $79.95 billion in revenue, which is only one-fifth of the target of $390.8 billion.
At present, the only feasible method is for Optimus to continuously explore new application scenarios, such as medical care and home services, to create new demand and let the shipment volume double every year. Only in this way is it possible to create 80% of Tesla's future revenue. However, the difficulty of this is also not to be underestimated.
In addition, the market education cost is huge. As a new product, the acceptance of humanoid robots by consumers and enterprises still needs time to cultivate. If Tesla wants to promote market popularization, it needs to invest huge marketing and education expenses, which will further increase the cost pressure and delay the profit cycle.
04 Conclusion
Overall, Optimus still faces multiple obstacles to creating 80% of Tesla's future value, and the probability of realization is extremely low.
It is undeniable that Tesla's technology reuse strategy has indeed built unique advantages. Supply chain sharing, FSD algorithm migration, and mass production experience in the automotive industry have all enabled Optimus to start from a higher starting point.
However, just looking at the predictions of Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, it is almost impossible for Optimus to create 80% of Tesla's future value, not to mention that it also faces problems such as mass production, technology, and rare earth supply.