Beijing programmers enter a cooling-off period for home buying
The southern part of Changping, the largest residential area for programmers in Beijing, has recently witnessed a rapid decline in the sales speed of new housing projects.
On June 30, Zhonghai Future Realm, which had high pre - opening expectations, obtained pre - sale permits for 6 buildings and 342 units at once. Two months later, the de - stocking rate was only 23.7%, and the transaction price was at the bottom.
Data source: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, as of September 2
For Yuexiu Xingyao Future, which obtained the pre - sale permit earlier, it has been exactly 5 months since the pre - sale of the first phase of 930 units, and the de - stocking rate is only 17.5%.
Data source: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, as of September 2
A project that had sold well before increased the channel commission rate in September and started to spend more money to attract customers.
Meanwhile, represented by the popular Zhuxinzhuang area, real estate projects in the southern part of Changping have secretly and collectively reduced prices since the second quarter of this year.
Based on the data regularly released by the Beijing Real Estate Sales Ranking List, we sorted out the price changes of the real estate projects that have been the main contributors to transactions in the southern part of Changping in the past year. Conclusion: The prices have been under pressure in the past year, and the transaction prices have been declining at an accelerated pace in the past 5 months.
Data source: Beijing Real Estate Sales Ranking List
The southern part of Changping, represented by Zhuxinzhuang, was once the most resistant to price drops and the hottest area for transactions outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing, but now it can no longer withstand the pressure.
There are two main reasons for the weakening of the real estate market in the southern part of Changping: the collapse of second - hand housing prices and the surge in new housing supply.
Currently, the real estate market is prone to enter a downward spiral: the larger the supply of new housing, the more the second - hand housing prices will drop. The more the second - hand housing prices drop, the harder it is to sell new housing, and the prices will continue to be pushed down. Xihongmen and Shunyi are precedents, and Changping may be next.
01
Second - hand housing serves as a reference for the value of new housing. No matter how new a new house is, once the owner buys it, its nature becomes that of second - hand housing. Therefore, the price of second - hand housing will definitely affect the psychological expectations of new housing buyers.
Since this year, the second - hand housing market in the areas along the Changping Line of the subway, which are the main transaction areas in the southern part of Changping, has quickly fallen into a price collapse.
First, take a look at a chart. This is the listing data of second - hand housing in the main areas of the southern part of Changping monitored by 58 Anjuke. The price drops in the Huilongguan and Shahe areas are very significant, with a year - on - year decline of up to 14.18% and 11.41% respectively.
Data source: 58 Anjuke
In the past year, the listing price of second - hand housing in the whole of Beijing has dropped by 9.25%, and the listing price of second - hand housing in the entire Changping District has dropped by 10.02%. The price decline pressure in the Huilongguan and Shahe areas is significantly greater than that of the entire market.
Data for the whole of Beijing, data source: 58 Anjuke
Data for Changping District, data source: 58 Anjuke
Some second - hand housing communities with high transaction volumes have led the price drops. For example, in Rongze Jiayuan, known as a highly liquid community in the Huilongguan area, the transaction price of a 104.35 - square - meter high - floor unit sold at the beginning of August was 35.1% lower than that of a similar unit four years ago.
Data source: 58 Anjuke
In another community with high transaction activity, Longtengyuan, the price of a middle - floor unit has dropped by more than 41% from its peak.
Data source: 58 Anjuke
The same trend can be seen in Liuxing Huayuan.
Data source: 58 Anjuke
The high - end projects in the Shahe area are no exception. The transaction prices of new housing in Lichunhu Courtyard have been relatively stable, but the second - hand housing prices have dropped by more than 30% from their peak, and the owner of a unit has lost nearly 8 million yuan in asset value.
Data source: 58 Anjuke
Moreover, the downward trend has concentratedly emerged this year, especially since April, showing an accelerated decline.
Trend of second - hand housing listing prices in the Huilongguan area, data source: 58 Anjuke
Trend of second - hand housing listing prices in the Shahe area, data source: 58 Anjuke
Previously, relying on the strong purchasing power of programmers from Zhongguancun and Xierqi, the housing prices in areas such as Huilongguan, Huoying, and Shahe near Haidian have always been relatively stable, and developers were also willing to acquire land in this area for projects. However, since the second quarter of this year, the enthusiasm of programmers to buy houses has waned, and the pressure on new projects on sale has been increasing.
Looking back, we can see a very obvious trend of shrinking volume and increasing pressure. In 2023, the average monthly sales volume of newly built residential units in Changping was 557.5; in 2024, it was 388 units per month; in the first 8 months of 2025, the average monthly sales volume was 365 units, with only 345 units and 292 units sold in July and August respectively.
As customers who previously paid deposits have completed the online signing process, the new round of customer accumulation for projects on sale has started to weaken. A decline in sales volume will be followed by a decline in prices.
02
There is another important reason for the current situation in the southern part of Changping: the excessive supply.
During the downturn of the real estate market, the land market will also cool down. Therefore, the government will give priority to putting up land in popular areas for sale, and the southern part of Changping is among the priority areas.
According to the statistics of Fengshuo Miju, the plots in the Changping real estate market that are about to enter the market include Plot CP02 - 0405 - 0001, Plot 0002, and Plot 0005 in the Hezhongtantun Group of Dongxiaokou Town, Changping District, the Dongxiaokou Urban Village Project, Plot CP01 - 0801 - 0055 in Zhuxinzhuang, and the Xiejia Plot in Beiqijia. Coupled with the projects on sale such as Yuexiu Xingyue, Huanyu Future, Longhu Guancui, Xingyao Future, Guantangfu, Jiajingli, Future Realm, and Guoyu Yanyuan Langrun, the supply of new housing in Changping will exceed 10,000 units.
In particular, the re - zoning of Plot CP01 - 0801 - 0055 in Zhuxinzhuang from industrial land to residential land has intensified market concerns. Previously, the industry generally believed that the supply and demand in the southern part of Changping were relatively balanced, and good plots were relatively scarce, but now this logic no longer holds.
Currently, a total of 2921 units have been sold in Changping from January to August, and the annual sales volume is expected to be less than 5000 units. A supply of 10,000 units is enough for two years of sales.
Picture source: Fengshuo Miju
With excessive supply, developers' projects will compete with each other. The result of this competition is a significant generational gap between new products and existing projects. As a result, old inventory projects and second - hand housing have to reduce prices to increase sales. The price cuts of these projects, in turn, put pressure on new projects, forcing new projects to improve their products or engage in price wars.
In areas with a large supply, once the sales volume declines, some projects will cut prices to increase sales volume. However, once the price cuts start, it is difficult to stop the downward trend. Eventually, the rapid price cuts will undermine the confidence of homebuyers, making them less sensitive to price promotions, and the sales volume will continue to decline. This is a very frustrating phenomenon for real estate developers.
This logic has been repeatedly proven in areas such as Xihongmen and Dawayao. Therefore, once "malicious price cuts" occur, market regulators will intervene to prevent the market from collapsing.
Another trend worth noting is that the transactions in the Beijing real estate market are now concentrating in the urban areas, showing signs of declining sales volume in the suburbs and increasing sales volume in the urban areas.
