New York Fed survey: The application of artificial intelligence is expanding rapidly, but its impact on employment is currently limited.

① A survey by the New York Fed shows that the penetration rate of AI in enterprises has increased significantly in the past year, but it is still rare for jobs to be cut due to AI at present.

② 40% of service - sector enterprises have adopted AI, and 26% of manufacturing enterprises have done so. The proportion is expected to continue rising in the next six months.

A study released by the New York Fed's survey on Thursday shows that although the penetration rate of artificial intelligence (AI) in enterprises has increased significantly in the past year and is expected to continue expanding in the future, so far, it is still rare for jobs to be cut due to AI.

The survey results show that about 40% of service - sector enterprises said they are using AI to complete various tasks, up from 25% last year. This proportion is expected to continue rising, and 44% of enterprises expect to deploy AI tools in the next six months.

In the manufacturing sector, 26% of enterprises have adopted AI tools, and about one - third said they will follow suit within six months. This study is based on a survey of hundreds of enterprises in New York and northern New Jersey.

For a long time, there has been a widespread concern outside that AI may exert significant pressure on the job market in the next few years, especially having the greatest impact on high - paying professional and management positions.

As AI is truly becoming popular, economists and policymakers are having a fierce discussion about its impact on the overall economy, especially how it may reshape the labor force structure. In June this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a congressional hearing that AI is very likely to bring about truly huge changes, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty about its implementation rhythm and overall impact.

Multiple surveys show that the main purpose of enterprises using AI is to save time on daily affairs, so it is still difficult to clearly measure its impact on employment. The New York Fed's survey shows that service - sector enterprises mainly use AI for information retrieval, while manufacturing enterprises use it more for marketing and advertising.

In terms of industry distribution, more than half of the enterprises in the information, finance, and professional and business services sectors are already using AI; in the agricultural sector, no enterprise has started using this tool yet.

The study points out: "Although layoffs due to AI are not common, service - sector enterprises expect the pressure to lay off employees to increase in the next few months."

About 13% of enterprises expect to lay off employees in the next six months, but researchers also emphasized that this proportion is the same as last year, and not many enterprises actually carried it out last year. Meanwhile, about 11% of service - sector enterprises said that they have increased recruitment due to the application of AI.

The study concludes: "From the perspective of the overall economy, the impact of AI on the labor market may be relatively mild. At least so far, there are no significant signs of layoffs, especially considering that its impact may be both negative and positive." The study also points out that employees who already have jobs are more likely to receive retraining rather than being directly replaced.

However, a report recently released by Stanford University shows that AI is significantly weakening the employment prospects of some young Americans, and the most affected are those positions where generative AI can most easily replace manual tasks, such as software development.

The New York Fed also points out that the mild impact on employment so far may not last forever. "Looking ahead, as enterprises continue to integrate AI into their operations, they expect to see more significant layoffs and a contraction in recruitment."

This article is from "Caixin Venture Capital", author: Niu Zhanlin. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.