Is the countdown to the issuance of satellite internet licenses in China underway, and is a brand - new large - scale market on the horizon?

Under the overlapping signals of "licenses approaching and constellation construction accelerating", China's satellite internet is shifting from policy preparation to industrial development.

On August 27th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Optimizing Business Access to Promote the Development of the Satellite Communication Industry", aiming to achieve "large - scale application of new business forms such as direct satellite - to - mobile phone connections and over ten million users" by 2030. It also proposed 19 measures in six major aspects, including "orderly expanding market access, continuously expanding application scenarios, cultivating industrial ecosystems, optimizing telecommunications resources, strengthening supervision, and promoting coordinated development". In particular, it proposed to "study the establishment of new satellite communication services and further open up to private enterprises", providing top - level design and access guidelines for the collaboration between commercial aerospace, operators, and equipment manufacturers.

As the policies are being implemented, the constellation networking seems to be significantly accelerating. From late July to mid - August, China SatNet completed multiple low - orbit satellite launches within 21 days. On August 26th, the "Low - orbit Group 10" was launched into orbit by a Long March 8A rocket at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, continuing the high - density launch rhythm, and the industry has entered the stage of "regular continuous launches".

The market is also brewing a new "access moment". There are reports that relevant departments "will issue satellite internet licenses soon". If this becomes a reality, it will mean that China's satellite internet will gradually move from the networking stage to the operation stage.

It indeed seems that a vast blue ocean for the satellite internet is emerging. However, at the same time, there are also some overly optimistic expectations in the market.

I. Looking at the Ten - Thousand - Satellite Constellation from the Perspective of "Proliferation": Is China SatNet Really Accelerating?

What exactly is the satellite internet?

The traditional terrestrial internet relies on fiber - optic cables and base stations to transmit signals, while the satellite internet deploys a large number of small satellites in low - Earth orbits 500 - 2000 kilometers above the ground to form a global "space network".

The working process is quite simple: users send signals to the satellites above through their mobile phones or terminal devices. The satellites then "relay" the signals (since a single satellite stays in one area for a short time). The ground gateway station processes the requests, and the signals are sent back along the same path. It's like setting up a huge "WiFi network" in the sky, enabling internet access anywhere on Earth.

However, to finally achieve internet access, the satellite constellation must be fully constructed.

On the other side of the ocean, the low - orbit communication constellations represented by SpaceX's Starlink originated from the "proliferation" concept proposed by the United States. At that time, the US found that the expensive, heavy, and high - performance key satellites in geostationary orbits were vulnerable to attacks. If a few important nodal satellites were disabled, the entire system would fail.

Therefore, to prevent the entire satellite network from being destroyed, it should be operated in a decentralized manner, similar to the internet. This led to the concept of proliferation constellations with lower orbits but a larger number of satellites. With thousands of satellites in the Starlink constellation, even if half of them are destroyed, it can still maintain basic functions.

Since the satellites in lower orbits pass over a certain area for a short time, more satellites are needed to provide communication services to the same area on the ground in a relay - like manner. This is the fundamental reason why the planned number of satellites in low - orbit communication constellations starts in the tens of thousands.

Therefore, it's not surprising that China's recent important launches have all been for low - orbit communication constellations. This is also the apparent reason why the media generally speculates that the constellation construction is accelerating.

However, this is not the case. It's not that the construction of China's low - orbit communication constellations has suddenly accelerated recently. Instead, several rocket launches were postponed in the first half of the year due to various accidents, and the concentrated launches recently give the impression of acceleration.

Currently, the non - reusable rockets used for satellite launches have limitations in operational efficiency, and their ability to build constellations is restricted. For real acceleration, a qualitative change will only occur after the future Long March 12A and 12B models and the reusable rockets of private rocket companies are put into service.

II. How Valuable is the Satellite Internet License?

On the basis of solving the satellite networking and architecture problems, the entire low - orbit communication constellation needs a license to serve users.

There are generally two service models for low - orbit communication constellations. One is to directly connect satellites to mobile phones. Users send the websites they want to access or the tasks they want to perform to the satellites via electromagnetic waves. The satellites forward these requests to a remote central station - like institution for reception. The central station then accesses the network to complete the tasks for the users. The signals are then fed back to the satellites and sent back to the mobile phones, thus realizing the service.

The other model uses a mobile terminal similar to a tablet. The satellites connect to the terminal to complete the above cycle, and then the terminal serves the mobile phones like a WiFi network.

In principle, we use electromagnetic waves to transmit information. However, the frequency of electromagnetic waves is a scarce natural resource, and improper use can cause problems. For either of the above two service models, during the satellite transmission process, permission from a national management agency is required to use a certain frequency band of electromagnetic waves for services. Otherwise, it is illegal.

From a technical perspective, once a certain number of satellites are in place, satellite internet services can be realized. However, without a license, such services are illegal, and if discovered, the management agency will stop or punish the providers.

According to the "Catalogue of Telecommunication Business Classification", satellite communication business licenses are mainly divided into two categories: A13 - 1 (the first - type satellite communication business) and A13 - 2 (the second - type satellite communication business).

Among them, A13 - 1 is for mobile scenarios such as mobile phones and portable terminals, while A13 - 2 covers scenarios such as airborne, ship - borne, and fixed terminals, such as in - flight satellite WiFi and communication services for ocean - going vessels.

Currently, according to public information, only five companies in the table hold the A13 license, and only China Telecom, China Satellite Communications, and CCCC Information Technology hold the A13 - 1 license.

What everyone is eagerly awaiting is precisely the A13 - 1 license. If the A13 - 1 license is successfully issued, it will also give China Mobile and China Unicom among the three major operators the right to operate satellite internet services for terminals.

At the same time, it also gives the green light to satellite internet companies commercially. This license application is exactly about opening a service door for China's low - orbit communication constellations to form a commercial closed - loop.

Among satellite companies, two are widely favored by the outside world, and they are also the two largest internet constellations currently under construction in China.

China SatNet ("SatNet" Constellation): As the main "national team" in China's satellite internet field, SatNet Company is responsible for the construction and operation of the "SatNet" constellation. Its early - stage plan involves a total of 12,992 satellites, a large - scale project.

Yuanxin Satellite (G60 "Thousand - Sail" Constellation): Led by Shanghai and jointly built by multiple enterprises, the "Thousand - Sail" constellation is planned to have 15,000 satellites. It has already signed service agreements with countries such as Brazil and Kazakhstan, showing a strong willingness to "go global".

However, both of these widely - favored constellations currently have some commercialization issues. The bandwidth capacity of the first - phase satellites of the "SatNet" constellation is very limited (according to online sources, no more than 200 satellites), and the bandwidth of the early - stage satellites may be restricted. Although the "Thousand - Sail" constellation is a purely civilian constellation, its launch capacity is limited. Since the second quarter of 2025, no satellites have been launched, and currently, only a limited number of satellites are in orbit.

In addition to these two giants, other potential competitors are also gearing up:

For example, private rocket companies represented by LandSpace are not only seeking breakthroughs in launch capabilities but also starting to layout their own satellite constellations, such as the "Honghu" constellation, trying to integrate the entire industrial chain of "rocket + satellite + operation". Huawei also tested the direct satellite - to - mobile phone connection technology on the Longjiang - 3 satellite.

It is foreseeable that the issuance of licenses will not be a "single - lane bridge" but more likely a feast involving multiple parties. Different participants will compete and cooperate in different market segments based on their own resource endowments and strategic positioning to jointly expand the "pie" of the satellite internet market.

Of course, the progress of things won't be as fast as we expect.

This time, satellite companies are only allowed to apply for licenses, and there is no conclusion yet on the subsequent approval and issuance. This will involve multi - party games, including the relationships between satellite companies and the relationships between satellite networks and traditional terrestrial operators.

Therefore, although China has started planning to issue satellite internet licenses, it is still far from global actual networking and will take 2 - 3 years before large - scale actual operation.

This article is from "Tencent Technology", author: D Zongshi, Xiaojing. Republished by 36Kr with permission.