Three scenarios for the future growth of autonomous vehicles
While transforming the taxi and private car industries, autonomous driving will also give rise to new industries, business forms, and models. Industries are expressions of technology, emerging from technology. They not only readjust and adapt as technology evolves but also continuously form and restructure with technological progress, thereby triggering a paradigm revolution and giving birth to new economic forms.
Currently, new energy vehicles are booming at an unprecedented pace, profoundly reshaping the global automotive industry landscape. As one of its core highlights, autonomous driving technology is expected to further disrupt traditional models and redefine the future direction of the automotive industry.
If new energy vehicles revolutionize the core of automotive power by replacing engines with batteries, then autonomous driving technology will reshape the driving subject, bringing about comprehensive changes in user roles and consumer terminals. This article will conduct an in - depth exploration around this trend.
The Era of Autonomous Driving is Accelerating
Since humans began using tools, they have constantly sought to improve their ability to control tools, and automation is a relatively advanced ability among them. Initially, humans explored the mysteries of automated tool control in the magnificent imaginations of mythological legends and the wonderful concepts of science fiction novels. Later, these imaginations gradually became a reality.
Some believe that the earliest autonomous vehicles were ships. After centuries of fighting against the wind and waves, ancient sailors invented devices that used natural forces instead of human power. The landmark time for modern - day autonomous cars was 1925. At that time, New York City showcased a remotely controlled "ghost car," which gave people their first glimpse of the imagined autonomous car, both exciting and terrifying.
Looking back through history, we seem to still be at the crossroads of exploration and change, much the same as a century ago. Around 1920, cars began to flood into some cities in Europe and America. By 1980, the world was crowded due to the large number of cars. People may easily view the autonomous driving revolution as a repetition of the experience of popularizing traditional cars in the 20th century. However, the difference between autonomous cars and traditional cars can, in a sense, be compared to the difference between cars and horse - drawn carriages.
Moreover, this evolution process may not only be faster but also on a larger scale, driven by the continuous innovation and development of computers, the Internet, and artificial intelligence.
Recently, a report released by Morgan Stanley predicted that by 2030, the global market size of autonomous cars will reach $200 billion. The report believes that with the development of artificial intelligence, the adoption of autonomous cars will experience explosive growth in the near future, accounting for 28% of car sales by 2030.
We can be bolder in predicting the future because the development of reality often exceeds ordinary people's imagination. When the computer era dawned in 1943, Thomas Watson, the president of IBM, asserted, "I think the global market may only need five computers." Ken Olsen, the president of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), was convinced in 1977 that "I can't find a reason for anyone to want a computer at home."
However, the development of reality, like the predictions in science fiction novels, always surprises rational CEOs and experts.
Industries to be Changed First
The development of autonomous cars will profoundly change related industries such as automobile manufacturing, sales, operation, maintenance, and insurance, with the taxi industry being the first to be affected.
Currently, autonomous cars have been widely deployed both at home and abroad. Among domestic enterprises, as of May 2025, Baidu's Luobo Kuaipao has deployed more than 1,000 RoboTaxis (driverless taxis) in over 15 cities around the world, providing more than 11 million rides in total. In July, Luobo Kuaipao announced its plan to connect thousands of RoboTaxis to Uber to provide services in regions such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Among foreign enterprises, in June this year, Tesla began providing RoboTaxi services with its Model Y FSD in Austin and expects to expand the service area to San Francisco in September. Recently, Waymo, an autonomous driving company under Alphabet, Google's parent company, claimed that it has reached 10 million operating orders in total and plans to expand its RoboTaxi services from the current San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin to regions such as New York, Atlanta, and Tokyo.
Driverless taxis may only be the tip of the iceberg of the application of driverless cars. Their deeper impact will spread to the private car market and even the entire automotive manufacturing industry.
On the one hand, autonomous cars will promote sharing and reduce the demand for personal car purchases. The arrival of driverless shared cars may fundamentally change consumers' views on cars. If people can simply tap on a screen to book and take a driverless taxi (or other forms of driverless shared cars), they may be inclined to give up buying private cars.
In short, no matter where the destination is and what the travel mode is, professional autonomous cars can respond immediately, with lower costs and better performance, thus reducing the necessity of personal car purchases. To some extent, in the near future, driving may increasingly become a nostalgic way for the middle - aged and the elderly or an option for a few young people seeking excitement (like current racing).
In fact, the enthusiasm for driving among young people has already declined. In the 1980s, about 70% of 17 - year - old teenagers in the United States held driver's licenses. By 2014, this proportion had dropped to below 45%. In the future, when more and more people choose autonomous cars, the number of cars needed to transport the same number of people will be far less than the current number of private cars.
On the other hand, autonomous cars require professional operation. More mature autonomous driving technology and data support will reduce the requirements for the driving ability of individual users (such as driver's licenses, age, and the ability to enter manual driving at any time). At the same time, increasing the technological requirements for autonomous cars requires at least technical support from digital platforms or AI companies, and it is difficult for individuals to operate them completely. In addition, professional operation is not only applicable to cars but also to other means of transportation, which will have a substitution effect on private cars.
Autonomous driving technology may also be applied to bicycles, forming an organic connection with shared bicycles. Shared bicycles have changed the way many people ride in cities, providing all - day local transportation services, which are faster than walking and more enjoyable than taking public transportation. If shared bicycles are equipped with autonomous driving technology, they may trigger a revolutionary wave in the automotive industry.
Automation can also improve the comfort and convenience of buses and subways, and it will also impact the automotive industry. In fact, the automation level of subway driving is already very high, leading the intelligent trend of urban transportation.
One day, autonomous cars will not only dominate our roads but also the sky. Even, autonomous driving in the air may develop more rapidly than on the ground because there is no risk of hitting obstacles in the air. In fact, in commercial long - haul flights, autopilots are on for more than 99% of the time.
Affected by this, the scale of the automotive manufacturing industry is expected to shrink significantly. Some studies predict that by 2040, affected by shared autonomous cars, new car sales will decrease by 50%.
New Growth Points Emerge in the Automotive Industry
While transforming the taxi and private car industries, autonomous driving will also give rise to new industries, business forms, and models. Industries are expressions of technology, emerging from technology. They not only readjust and adapt as technology evolves but also continuously form and restructure with technological progress, thereby triggering a paradigm revolution and giving birth to new economic forms.
Autonomous cars will bring many new growth points, which can be mainly summarized in the following three aspects.
Firstly, in - vehicle service upgrades. Autonomous driving brings free time, and filling this time means a huge market space. As researchers call it the "travel chain," people will take cars to several places, not just directly to and from work, but also to pick up and drop off children, buy coffee, go to the gym, etc. Therefore, compared with the past, we will visit more places every day, stay for shorter periods, and cover a wider range. As a result, we may spend more and freer time in the car.
In this regard, a clear view is that passengers will pay extra for a more comfortable riding experience, even if they are no longer driving. In other words, a possible business model in the era of autonomous driving is to capture our attention and monetize it.
Currently, General Motors has started tracking what radio programs drivers listen to and customizes each advertisement by combining this data with records of where the drivers are going. Audi has recruited a team from Disney to design in - car virtual reality experiences for media - savvy passengers.
Secondly, a surge in goods transportation. In line with the development of e - commerce, the popularization of autonomous cars will significantly reduce transportation and delivery costs and double the efficiency, leading the autonomous driving transportation industry into the fast lane of high - speed growth.
In recent years, the development of e - commerce has had a wide - ranging impact on retail, local services, transportation, and land use. In the future, the logistics sector will further leverage the advantages of autonomous driving technology and vehicles to achieve a win - win situation for autonomous driving and e - commerce.
In 2025, Cainiao's driverless vehicles returned to the front line of unmanned delivery. Currently, 500 vehicles have been delivered on public roads, and the goal this year is to deliver 2,500 vehicles. In the future, benefiting from the popularization of autonomous cars, sending things will become very cheap, just like sending text messages, and goods will flow like information.
At the same time, autonomous driving technology will be deeply integrated into the more influential application field of artificial intelligence - the geographical data space, thereby significantly enhancing the economic value of geographical data.
Throughout the history of human civilization, maps centered on geographical locations have always been an important cornerstone for exploring the world, expanding trade, and connecting civilizations. From the mountain - and - sea maps cast on the "Nine Tripods" in ancient times to the precise nautical charts in the Age of Discovery, spatial information has always been a key force driving social change and economic development.
Today, the connotation of geographical data has been greatly enriched, including not only precise spatial coordinates but also the time dimension (i.e., the time and duration of the occurrence of people and events at a specific location) and the attribute dimension (i.e., the characteristics and states of people, things, and events carried by that location).
The rise of autonomous driving will further activate the potential of geographical data. It not only relies on high - precision maps for accurate navigation and route planning but also continuously updates and optimizes spatial information through real - time perception and data feedback. This process will reshape the urban transportation structure, business layout, and even the regional economic pattern, promoting geographical data to evolve from an "auxiliary tool" to a "core production factor" and releasing unprecedented economic and social value in the era of intelligent travel.
Thirdly, the construction of new - type infrastructure will be accelerated. The transformation of the automotive manufacturing and operation - related industries not only depends on but also strongly promotes the innovation of related infrastructure such as parking lots, gas stations, charging piles, and intelligent roads. Imagine that autonomous cars can not only drive for humans but also park themselves, drive to the garage for refueling and maintenance, and pay vehicle insurance premiums. This is a complete transformation of the entire ecosystem.
It should be noted that in addition to government public investment, autonomous car manufacturers and platform companies responsible for operation will become the main forces in the construction of this new - type infrastructure.
Enterprises' enthusiasm for increasing the construction of new - type infrastructure stems from two major motivations: the first is to seize market share. This is relatively easy to understand. By occupying new - type infrastructure, relevant enterprises can better obtain customers for vehicle operation, in - vehicle services, goods transportation, etc.; the second is to improve industry competitiveness.
Therefore, enterprises are more motivated to focus their innovation on building physical infrastructure, such as charging networks, autonomous vehicle fleets, and other value - added service facilities, as a higher industry entry barrier and to build sustainable enterprise competitiveness.
Meta, the parent company of Facebook, is expected to spend between $66 billion and $72 billion in total in 2025, with most of it going towards the construction of AI infrastructure.
(The author is a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
This article is from the WeChat official account "Economic Observer". Author: Liu Cheng. Republished by 36Kr with permission.