How can enterprises break through in the new technological revolution?

Recently, when chatting with friends, the most frequently discussed topic is how to manage the uncertainties brought about by the new technological revolution.

Actually, if you think about it carefully, in recent years, the new technological revolution, such as AI, big data, cloud computing, etc., has surged in like a tide. I clearly feel that today's enterprises are not facing the problem of whether there are opportunities, but rather the problem of whether they can stand firm in the face of uncertainties.

I often tell entrepreneurs, "In the past, we were afraid of 'black swans', but now 'black swans' have become the norm. In the past, we competed by 'catching the right wave', but now we compete by 'standing firm in the wind'."

The uncertainties brought about by new technologies are not problems in a single aspect, but a comprehensive impact from strategy to organization, from talent to culture. We need to first understand what the uncertainties look like and then figure out how to deal with them.

Where exactly are the uncertainties in the new technological revolution?

I have contacted many enterprises, from traditional manufacturing industries to Internet companies. Generally, their confusions are concentrated in four aspects:

1. Fuzziness of technological direction:

There are too many new technologies, and each field is rapidly iterating. Enterprises simply don't know which path will work.

For example, in the past two years, everyone was betting on the metaverse, but now it turns out that many scenarios are just "concepts".

This year, large AI models have become popular, but 90% of enterprises haven't even figured out "how to use AI to reduce costs and increase efficiency".

The "uncertainty" of technology essentially means that the "cycle of investment and return" has become unpredictable. If you invest in the wrong direction, you may lose all your capital. Even if you invest in the right direction, you may be quickly eliminated by more advanced technologies.

2. "Jumping" of market demand:

Technology directly reshapes user demand.

For example, in the past, consumers considered "capacity" when buying a refrigerator. Now, smart refrigerators need to be able to "identify ingredients, recommend recipes, and link with e - commerce for ordering". In the past, people handled bank business at the counter. Now, young people use mobile banking for "face - recognition transfer and intelligent investment advice".

Demand doesn't change "gradually", but is "suddenly elevated" by technology. If an enterprise conducts market research based on past experience, by the time the data is analyzed, the demand may have already changed.

3. Discontinuity of organizational capabilities:

The most headache - inducing problem I've seen is that "the old business is still running, the new business is about to take off, but the organization can't keep up".

For example, a traditional household appliance enterprise wants to transform into the smart home field. It needs new talents who understand AI algorithms, user operations, and ecological cooperation. However, the core team still consists of the original sales and production managers. The boss wants to innovate, but the middle and senior management are used to "waiting for instructions", and the employees' skills are still at the "execution level".

The rapid penetration of technology has made "organizational capabilities" the biggest bottleneck. It's not that there is no strategy, but that "no one can implement the strategy".

4. Complexity of the external environment:

The technological revolution is not isolated. It is intertwined with globalization, policy regulation, and geopolitics.

For example, when the data security law is introduced, an enterprise's AI system may need to be completely re - developed. When the international situation is tense, the enterprise may face challenges in the supply of chips and algorithm models in the supply chain. Even the competitor may not be a peer, but a cross - border company using new technologies.

This kind of "uncertainty" has changed the survival environment of enterprises from "linear growth" to "non - linear fluctuation".

2. Future impact: It's not about eliminating enterprises, but about eliminating mindsets

These uncertainties will sooner or later reshape the rules of the business world.

In the next 5 - 10 years, the enterprises that survive will definitely be those that can dance with uncertainties, while those that are eliminated are often enterprises that use past mindsets to deal with current problems.

Specifically, there will be three obvious changes:

1. Agility is more important than scale:

In the past, enterprises competed by being "big and comprehensive" - large in scale, high in market share, and stable in the supply chain. However, in the era of new technologies, "small and fast" enterprises may be more viable. For example, a startup company in the field of AI medical imaging may iterate a diagnostic model in 3 months, while a large company may not be able to launch it in half a year due to complex processes.

2. Organizational resilience is more important than efficiency:

Efficiency means "doing things right", while resilience means being able to quickly adjust when things go wrong. I've seen many enterprises that have boomed with a single technology or model (such as a certain sharing economy platform). However, due to rigid organizations and talent gaps, once the technology becomes obsolete or the policy changes, they immediately collapse. True resilience means that the organization can self - evolve - everyone from top to bottom has the willingness to learn, and can quickly test and correct mistakes from strategy to execution.

3. The value of people is more important than resources:

Technology can be purchased (such as buying AI tools), and resources can be integrated (such as finding partners), but human creativity is irreplaceable. The core competition in the future is whether an enterprise can attract, cultivate, and retain people who can master new technologies. For example, a manufacturing enterprise with a group of engineers who understand industrial software and data modeling can become an industry leader through "digital twin" technology even without its own factory.

3. The underlying logic of dealing with uncertainties: From prediction to evolution

The essence of management is to manage uncertainties, and the essence of managing uncertainties is to manage the evolutionary ability of the organization.

Here are some methods I often use:

1. First improve digital perception, then talk about technological layout

When many enterprises mention new technologies, they immediately think, "Should I invest in AI?" "Should I build a big data platform?" However, I suggest first "perceiving" - using data and user feedback to figure out "what specific problems technology can solve".

For example, I once served a traditional building materials enterprise that wanted to undergo digital transformation but didn't know where to start. We first did two things:

• Penetrating user needs: Using AI to analyze the conversation records between dealers and end - customers, we found that "slow response of installation services" was the most frequently complained - about issue (accounting for 60%);
• Technology matching test: Using low - code tools to quickly build an "installation scheduling system". After a 3 - month pilot, the on - time installation rate increased from 75% to 92%, and customer satisfaction increased by 40%.

Technology is not used "for the sake of using", but "to solve specific problems". First, find the "application scenarios of technology" through data and user feedback, and then decide whether to invest and how to invest.

2. Build a flexible organization and let small teams test and make mistakes

The characteristic of the new technological revolution is rapid iteration. The hierarchical system of large companies actually slows down the speed.

Why not split the large organization into a small front - end + a large middle - end? The front - end consists of small teams responsible for exploring new paths, such as testing new businesses and verifying new technologies. The middle - end provides "firepower" support, such as data, computing power, supply chain, and talent pool.

I've contacted many enterprises where either the front - end is too weak or the middle - end is too rigid. This is because these enterprises haven't learned flexibility.

Front - end: Provide room for trial and error and evaluate innovation value;

Middle - end: Create standardized tools that the front - end can use immediately.

3. Integration of old and new talents: Old employees learn new skills, and new talents bring old experience

Many enterprises worry that "newcomers don't understand the industry, and old employees can't keep up". However, I think this is an opportunity - only through the integration of old and new can a 'chemical reaction' occur.

The "industry experience" of old employees is the "anchoring point" for the implementation of new technologies, and the "digital thinking" of new talents is the "upgrading engine" for old businesses.

4. The corporate culture should be a soil tolerant of mistakes, not a greenhouse for stability

The risk of the new technological revolution lies in the "cost of trial and error". However, if you don't try and make mistakes, the cost will be even higher. I often tell entrepreneurs, "The enterprises that can survive are not those that never make mistakes, but those that can turn mistakes into experience."

So, what should be done?

• Senior executives should take the lead in "telling the truth": Admit that they don't understand new technologies and encourage employees to voice their objections;
• Establish a "review mechanism": After each trial and error, instead of blaming, ask, "What have we learned?" "How can we improve next time?";
• Reward "innovative behaviors": Even if it's not successful, as long as the process is valuable, give recognition.

The uncertainties of the new technological revolution are essentially "a major test for the business world". What is being tested is the enterprise's "learning ability", "adaptability", and "organizational resilience". As managers, we don't need to "predict the future", but we need to "keep ourselves and the organization in a state of 'ready to evolve'."

The most certain opportunity in the face of uncertainties belongs to those who "are willing to change, dare to try and make mistakes, and are good at learning". This is my deepest understanding after 20 years of management experience.

This article is from "Zhang Lijun Cherry" and is published by 36Kr with authorization.