Is NIO out of the ICU? "Every day is a battle for survival."
Li Bin and NIO have faced the darkness twice and made two crucial decisions.
Before the launch of the new ES8, 51-year-old Li Bin set off from Shigatse, Tibet, driving the new ES8 and swapping batteries along the way. After a long 10-hour live broadcast, Li Bin and the new ES8 arrived at the Everest Base Camp at an altitude of over 5,200 meters. Here, the 15th battery swapping station of NIO on the G318 Sichuan-Tibet Highway was officially put into operation.
On the way back, Li Bin witnessed the rare spectacle of "Sunlight Gilding the Golden Mountains" over the snow-capped mountains. In Tibetan culture, this natural phenomenon is regarded as a blessing from the mountain god, indicating good luck, peace, and a smooth year ahead. It also symbolizes the dissipation of difficulties and the arrival of vitality.
Five days later, the "blessing of the mountain god" was reflected in numerical terms:
NIO's Hong Kong stocks closed up more than 11%, with a market value reaching 102.13 billion yuan, returning to the 100-billion-yuan market value mark after nearly a year. NIO's US stocks rose more than 9% on the evening of the 21st and more than 12% at the opening on the 22nd, also returning to a market value of 100 billion yuan.
01. "It's most important for NIO to survive."
On August 21st, the pre-sale price of the third-generation ES8 was announced. Although it's just a pre-sale price, the industry has already judged that this will be NIO's second comeback within less than a month after the LeDao L90.
The reason is simple: the price of the NIO ES8 has been significantly reduced, which also means that the prices of other NIO models will be adjusted accordingly. Despite being criticized for "stabbing" old customers in the back, "Good Guy Li Bin" has made a tough decision this time.
The third-generation ES8 offers three models: the Executive Luxury Edition with six or seven seats and the Executive Signature Edition. The pre-sale price of the first two models starts from 416,800 yuan. When purchased using the BaaS battery rental method, the pre-sale price starts from 308,800 yuan. The pre-sale price of the Executive Signature Edition starts from 456,800 yuan. When purchased using the BaaS battery rental method, the pre-sale price starts from 348,800 yuan.
Li Bin once again implemented the concept of "standard configuration" to the fullest, and the audience responded with shouts of "God Li Bin."
Not satisfied enough, Li Bin added:
"This is just the pre-sale price! Just a reminder."
The enthusiastic response at the scene was even more intense than when the price of the LeDao L90 was announced.
The reason is easy to understand. The price of the launched L90 was only 20,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price, while the price of the third-generation ES8 has been reduced by more than 110,000 yuan compared to the previous generation (the previous generation's vehicle price was 528,000 - 638,000 yuan, and the price using the battery rental plan was 458,000 - 510,000 yuan). This price difference is almost enough to buy a whole Firefly.
The market has once again proven that "there are no unsellable cars, only prices that can't be lowered." Qin Lihong, the president of NIO, revealed that from the press conference until the next morning, within the same time period, the number of orders for the new ES8 was higher than that of the LeDao L90.
It took NIO ten years to have its first real hit order, and only 20 days for the second one.
But isn't NIO afraid of the word "backstabbing" by setting such a price?
At the media communication meeting the next day, Li Bin explained that if NIO continued to maintain high prices, it would be difficult to compete in the market.
Is this a sign that NIO, which once claimed not to lower prices, is starting to compromise with the market?
Not entirely.
Facing many media, Li Bin admitted that there were problems, or rather mistakes, in the cost setting and product definition of the second-generation ES8 launched in 2022. To ensure the gross profit margin, the pricing was too high, which affected the vehicle sales.
With the self-developed Shenji X9031 chip installed in the new ES8, and the platform components such as the 900V architecture, electric drive, and battery pack shared among the ET9, ES8, and L90, a cross-model scale amortization has been formed.
In terms of design, the third-generation product focuses more on compact structure and fewer components. For example, the integration of wiring harnesses and electrical architectures, and the self-development of key components such as seats, allow the cost to be controlled in advance at the design stage.
In addition, on the premise of ensuring safety, the new ES8 has indeed reduced the use of aluminum in the body, that is, it no longer uses an all-aluminum body. The above-mentioned cost-cutting measures have actually compressed the cost of the new ES8.
Li Bin even revealed "(in 2022) the gross profit margin at that price was not much higher than it is now."
The mission of the new ES8 is to return to its proper position - a large three-row SUV in the 400,000-yuan range.
"Although we are aware that this pricing will hurt old users to some extent, overall, it's a reasonable decision."
For Chinese car brands, NIO undoubtedly has a group of "the best" users. After the ES8 price press conference, although there were inevitably complaints from old users on social media, Li Bin told the media:
"Many users advised us not to worry too much about the feelings of old users, believing that it's most important for NIO to survive."
"We really made them worry too much in the past period." Qin Lihong told Zhijia.com that NIO will carry out various activities for old users in different places in the following period. "We can't take their kindness for granted."
In a sense, this is also due to the alignment of interests. For NIO owners:
"Only if NIO survives can the previously promised rights and interests be guaranteed."
Making a profit in the fourth quarter has become an urgent task to meet this consensus. With the success of the LeDao L90 before, the ES8 must seize the opportunity.
At the press conference, Li Bin told everyone that the new ES8 will be officially launched and start delivery in late September. To ensure this schedule, NIO has also started large-scale mass production in advance.
Two days before the ES8's launch, there were already display cars of the ES8 in about 400 stores across the country. There is still a month until the official release and delivery. NIO promised to maintain the momentum of the new ES8 at the initial stage of delivery:
"In the past 20 days or so, you may have seen the pace of the LeDao L90. If LeDao can do it, NIO definitely can too."
The new ES8, scheduled for delivery at the end of September, will be the starting gun for NIO's promise of "making a profit in the fourth quarter."
Besides NIO, Leapmotor and XPeng also regard "the fourth quarter" as a phased goal.
Currently, both of the above companies have released their second-quarter financial reports.
According to their respective data, in the first half of this year, Leapmotor achieved an operating income of 24.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 174%. In the first half of this year, the increase in the company's gross profit far exceeded the increase in operating income. The gross profit margin was 14.1%, and the gross profit was 3.426 billion yuan, a staggering 3469% increase compared to 96 million yuan in the same period last year. In the first half of the year, Leapmotor's net profit was 30 million yuan. Considering that the second half of the year is generally the peak season for car purchases, Leapmotor has adjusted its annual goal from breaking even for the whole year to making a profit for the whole year.
That is to say, Leapmotor's "fourth quarter" is aimed at achieving annual profit.
XPeng's financial data is also impressive. In the first half of 2025, XPeng Motors' total revenue exceeded 34.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132%. XPeng Motors' gross profit margin reached 17.3%, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points. Among them, the gross profit margin of automobiles was 14.3%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. XPeng Motors' cumulative net loss in the first half of the year was 1.14 billion yuan, which was narrower than the net loss of 2.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2024. He Xiaopeng himself maintains his expectation of "making a profit in the fourth quarter."
As of the time of publication, NIO has not yet released its second-quarter financial report.
However, according to the first-quarter financial data, NIO's net loss in Q1 increased by more than 30% year-on-year, reaching 6.75 billion yuan. According to the company's annual financial reports, NIO's cumulative losses have exceeded 100 billion yuan. During the same period, NIO's current liabilities have exceeded its current assets, causing its asset-liability ratio to rise to 92.55% at the end of the first quarter.
Although both the LeDao L90 and the NIO ES8 have achieved phased success in terms of orders, NIO is far from being able to relax.
As Qin Lihong said, NIO, having achieved two small victories, still faces a challenging situation:
"Every year is important, and every day is a battle for survival."
02. "The best decisions are made at the worst times."
"NIO is the only global car company listed in three places. In the financial reports, R & D investment is counted as current expenses, and the losses are all out in the open. The balance sheet is very clean."
In July this year, during a live broadcast of a factory visit, Li Bin faced the issue of losses head-on and responded to external criticism. He revealed that NIO had invested about 60 billion yuan in R & D in the past ten years.
Li Bin detailed how this 60 billion yuan was spent on three levels:
First: Underlying R & D, which is not only beneficial to NIO but also meaningful to the entire industry. We will also cultivate industry talents;
Second: Core components reflected in the product platform, including chips, electric drives, seat platforms, battery packs, etc.;
Third: Software functions at the vehicle model and application levels, including assisted driving and NOMI.
Although Li Bin emphasized that the scope of R & D would not be reduced, he also admitted that there was room for improvement in the efficiency of this 60 billion yuan in R & D investment.
Since last year, NIO has implemented the "Basic Business Unit (CBU)" mechanism, requiring each department to calculate the input-output ratio and strictly control costs. At the same time, adjustments have also been made to the salaries and incentives of management, forming a "one person, double positions" model in work content to improve resource coordination efficiency. In addition, continuing to learn from XPeng Motors, the goal is to reduce the overall vehicle cost by 10% for the whole year.
"So now we have to calculate the accounts for each project. For example, if it's a two-year project, we'll calculate the accounts after two years."
Li Bin said bluntly:
"This can actually be calculated clearly. If you don't want to calculate it clearly, you must be muddling through."
Currently, every project of NIO is subject to ROI closed-loop management, which can identify which projects can truly create value for users and generate revenue for the company. A representative example is that NIO merged the mobile software team into the in-vehicle system department while still retaining basic functions (such as the smart car key) to leave room for the future in-vehicle system ecosystem.
"Our best decisions are made at the worst times. Conversely, the worst decisions are often made at good times. We still need to stay in a state of hunger and under pressure so that we can maintain the right attitude."
Another major investment of NIO is in battery swapping.
At the ES8 press conference, Li Bin revealed that NIO had invested more than 18 billion yuan in the battery swapping field in ten years, and currently, battery swapping is basically accessible in major domestic cities.
This inevitably makes people suspect that NIO's price cut this time is because old users have already borne the cost of building stations.
Li Bin immediately clearly denied this statement:
"It's not because of the previous investment in battery swapping that I set the car price high. That's not the reason."
In Li Bin's "car-using ledger," battery swapping solves the user's later battery replacement cost and the time cost of contract termination, and "it's equivalent to a free lifetime warranty for the battery."
The cost of NIO's battery swapping system, when averaged out per vehicle, is more than the approximately 100,000 yuan saved by the BaaS plan. In Li Bin's view, this is still a guarantee for users.
03. Has the inflection point for "pure-electric large three-row SUVs" arrived?
After the launch of the LeDao L90, Li Bin has been repeatedly emphasizing a concept in recent live broadcasts, press conferences, and exchanges with the media. In his view, a consensus has been formed in the domestic automotive industry:
"The golden age of extended-range large three-row SUVs has passed, and the era of pure-electric large three-row SUVs has arrived."
