Even crazier than RoboTaxis, the "ultimate battlefield" of driverless logistics vehicles
In 2025, the investment hotspot in the autonomous driving field is not vehicles for transporting people, but those for hauling goods.
A series of financings, product launches, and partnerships have demonstrated the popularity of this field: In April, Neolix completed a C+ round of financing worth 1 billion yuan; Jiushi Intelligence raised $100 million in its B3 round, with the total B-round financing approaching $300 million. In July, JD Logistics launched its self-developed VAN unmanned light truck; STO Express reached a strategic cooperation with Cainiao's unmanned vehicles. The two parties will focus on the last-mile delivery scenario to accelerate the large-scale application of unmanned delivery. In August, White Rhino received its second round of financing worth hundreds of millions of yuan this year, with the total B-round financing accumulating to nearly 500 million yuan. It is reported that Momenta is also assembling a team to enter the unmanned logistics delivery vehicle market.
Against the backdrop of a cooling investment and financing environment, capital is still flowing intensively into this field, which confirms the consensus in the investment circle regarding the "critical point of large-scale profitability" for unmanned logistics delivery vehicles.
Converging on Logistics Delivery
In 2016, the unicorn Waymo became independent from Google, triggering the first wave of L4 autonomous driving startups. However, due to the slow progress of technology commercialization not meeting expectations, the industry has experienced two declines and three recoveries in less than a decade.
Compared with the difficulties in the commercialization of autonomous vehicles for passengers, the commercial cargo transportation scenario has become a breakthrough point explored by industry players. Data from the State Post Bureau shows that as of 2024, the large-scale application of unmanned delivery vehicles in the express delivery and logistics industry has exceeded 6,000 units in total.
Since the beginning of this year, eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce have jointly issued the Special Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains, explicitly proposing to promote intelligent devices such as unmanned delivery vehicles; the Ministry of Transport's Implementation Opinions on "Artificial Intelligence + Transportation" has completed the solicitation of opinions and is about to be released, which is expected to focus on supporting the application of autonomous driving in the logistics field.
Before this, the changing policy environment has provided a rare development opportunity for unmanned logistics vehicles.
In 2021, China initiated the legalization process for unmanned delivery vehicles, and Beijing issued the first license for public roads. Subsequently, the policy gradually opened up pilot projects. In 2023, the Notice on Carrying out Pilot Work on the Access and Road Operation of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles gave the "green light" for autonomous vehicles to operate on the roads, and the opening of road rights has established a legal institutional foundation for unmanned delivery vehicles.
In November 2023, the Notice on Carrying out Pilot Work on the Access and Road Operation of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles issued a "pass permit" for unmanned logistics vehicles at the national level. In December of the same year, the Guidelines for the Transportation Safety Services of Autonomous Vehicles (Trial) explicitly defined for the first time at the national policy level that intelligent and connected vehicles can be used for transportation business activities.
In May 2025, the State Post Bureau mentioned "deepening the promotion and application of artificial intelligence technology and products in the industry, and accelerating the large-scale application of drones, unmanned vehicles, and intelligent cloud warehouses in the industry", which, from a scenario perspective, clearly demonstrated the state's support for the large-scale application of unmanned logistics vehicles and even unmanned technologies in the express delivery industry.
In terms of the scope of pilot projects, most major cities in China have issued management measures for the testing and commercial demonstration of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles. As of June 2025, more than 100 cities across the country have opened pilot projects for road rights of unmanned logistics vehicles (such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Jinan), supporting the large-scale operation of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles on the roads.
Driven by multiple factors such as strong policy support, maturing technology, and continuous cost reduction, 2025 is also known as the "Year of Explosion" for unmanned logistics delivery vehicles, and it is expected that the relevant market will experience explosive growth in the next three years.
As the leading express delivery company, SF Express was the first to bid for unmanned logistics vehicles in the industry, which is regarded as a landmark event for the commercialization of the industry. In 2023, the scale was in the hundreds, and in 2024, the bid further increased to the thousands.
According to statistics from Guohai Securities, currently, ZTO Express has deployed approximately 1,000 vehicles, YTO Express nearly 500 vehicles, Yunda Co., Ltd. more than 100 vehicles, and STO Express more than 200 vehicles. In addition, in April this year, ZTO Express cooperated with Neolix and plans to deploy 10,000 unmanned vehicles in the future. SF Holdings has deployed more than 800 vehicles and is expected to expand the scale of unmanned vehicles to 8,000 in 2025.
Authoritative institutions predict that by 2030, the market size of unmanned logistics vehicles will reach 263.4 billion yuan, which is 5.4 times that of 2025. Data shows that there are more than 15 million logistics vehicles in the urban distribution scenario in China, and the replaceability of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles is expected to increase significantly, making them likely to be the first to cross the finish line in the autonomous driving field.
According to calculations by China Merchants Securities, based on the number of express delivery and logistics outlets nationwide, the market space for unmanned delivery vehicles is approximately 468 billion yuan; based on the number of residential communities nationwide, the market space is between 546 billion and 728 billion yuan.
Cost Reduction to the Limit of 0.1 Yuan
Nowadays, the price competition in the express delivery industry is intensifying, and the average revenue per parcel continues to decline. Realistic problems are forcing the logistics industry to rely on technology to reduce costs to the limit.
According to statistics from the State Post Bureau, from January to May 2025, the average price per parcel decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, accelerating compared with 2024 (a 6.3% year-on-year decrease); while the average daily volume from January to May increased by 20.1% year-on-year, continuing the high - growth trend since 2024 (a 21.5% year-on-year increase). The industry as a whole shows a trend of "trading price for volume".
The competitive pressure from upstream e - commerce is transmitted to the downstream express delivery industry, and the competition in the e - commerce parcel market is particularly fierce. With the decreasing average weight of parcels, the bargaining power of large customers has increased, and the quotes for light and small parcels for large customers in some areas are less than 1 yuan.
In the logistics scenario, the cost calculation of trunk - line logistics includes the depreciation of large vehicles, fuel costs, tolls, and driver labor costs. Among them, labor costs account for about 10%; while in last - mile delivery, such as tricycle delivery, labor costs account for more than 80%. Autonomous driving can eliminate the labor cost of the "last five kilometers" in last - mile delivery, making it the core battlefield for "reducing the overall logistics cost of society".
Data from the State Post Bureau shows that the labor cost in China's logistics industry has increased from 17,000 yuan in 2019 to 23,000 yuan in 2025.
The use of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles has significantly reduced labor costs, effectively alleviated the pressure of last - mile delivery, and at the same time improved delivery timeliness and service stability. Taking a delivery outlet with a daily delivery volume of 8,000 parcels as an example, after introducing unmanned delivery vehicles, the average cost per parcel has decreased by 70%, the average daily delivery volume per vehicle has exceeded 1,000 parcels, and the delivery timeliness has been improved by 20% - 30%.
During express delivery peak seasons such as "Double Eleven" and the Spring Festival, the role of unmanned delivery vehicles is even more obvious. Their delivery efficiency is about twice that of traditional delivery models, and they can operate at high frequencies. Each vehicle can deliver 2,000 parcels per day, sharing a large number of delivery tasks, effectively reducing the labor intensity of couriers and the delivery pressure on outlets, and providing more flexible transportation capacity and service guarantees for handling peak business.
More and more practices have shown that unmanned delivery vehicles are highly effective in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. For example, in last - mile delivery, the cost per parcel of Neolix's unmanned vehicles can be reduced by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan; the monthly operating cost of Jiushi Intelligence's E6 model with FSD subscription service can be controlled within 3,000 yuan, far lower than the labor cost of traditional delivery methods; the operating data of SF Holdings' unmanned vehicles shows that each vehicle can save about 2,000 yuan in costs per month.
The actual operating data released by many domestic express delivery companies shows that unmanned delivery vehicles can reduce the cost per parcel by 0.1 yuan. This seemingly small figure is a major breakthrough for the express delivery industry, which competes for every cent.
Meanwhile, the large - scale application of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles has led to a continuous decline in marginal costs. With the large - scale deployment of unmanned logistics vehicles, the cost - reduction ability has been further enhanced: the price of Jiushi Intelligence's E6 model is only 19,800 yuan, a significant reduction compared with previous models; Neolix plans to have an annual production capacity of 30,000 vehicles in 2025, and large - scale production will further reduce the cost per vehicle; ZTO Express plans to deploy 10,000 unmanned vehicles in 2025, and it is expected that the cost per parcel can be further optimized by 0.11 yuan.
Unmanned logistics delivery vehicles are not only playing an increasingly important role in the urban system but also becoming an important supplement to transportation capacity in the joint distribution system of counties and townships.
In the past, due to the relatively small volume of parcels in rural areas, dedicated vehicle delivery faced problems such as high costs and long distances, resulting in delays in delivery timeliness. Now, with the operation of unmanned delivery vehicles, couriers only need to scan the code to open the door, put in the parcels, and set the driving route, and the vehicle can autonomously deliver the parcels to the designated station.
This model not only significantly improves the flexibility of delivery but also significantly reduces the labor time and cost of delivery. In particular, the launch of a series of new vehicle models has effectively solved the problem of last - mile delivery in rural areas by optimizing the chassis design to increase the load capacity.
Why Have Unmanned Logistics Deliveries Succeeded?
The application scenarios of autonomous driving in the logistics industry are mainly divided into three categories: First, trunk - line logistics (500 kilometers), responsible for inter - city, long - distance, and high - speed transportation; second, feeder - line logistics (50 kilometers), connecting the trunk - line and last - mile for medium - and short - distance transportation, responsible for transporting goods from regional distribution centers to urban delivery outlets; third, last - mile delivery (5 kilometers), delivering goods from urban delivery outlets to express stations or consumers, solving the "last five kilometers" of logistics.
Currently, the large - scale implementation scenario of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles is the "from outlet to express station" segment in last - mile express delivery.
A simplified express delivery process is: parcel collection → feeder - line transportation → central sorting → trunk - line transportation → central sorting → feeder - line transportation → delivery. Both parcel collection and delivery are completed by franchisees, and the processes are similar.
Taking delivery as an example, there are usually three methods: 1) direct delivery from the franchisee's outlet to the customer; 2) delivery from the franchisee's outlet to the express locker; 3) delivery from the franchisee's outlet to the express station.
Among them, the third method is the most mainstream collection and delivery method at present. Depending on the parcel volume density, franchisees usually use tricycles, small vans, or small trucks.
In the three scenarios, the distance of trunk - line logistics is hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Due to high speeds and large traffic volumes, the safety risks of unmanned operation cannot be resolved in the short term, and the road rights for unmanned heavy trucks have not been opened.
Feeder - line logistics usually covers dozens to hundreds of kilometers. Although the transportation distance and speed are not as high as those of trunk - line logistics, it needs to frequently shuttle through mixed road conditions such as the urban - rural fringe and use motorways, and also faces policy restrictions on the opening of road rights.
The distance of last - mile delivery is usually within ten kilometers, and the routes are relatively fixed, which reduces the technical risks of unmanned vehicles. At the same time, local governments are constantly opening up the road rights for unmanned vehicles in this scenario in a prudent and inclusive manner.
The delivery problem from the outlet to the delivery transfer point is one of the pain points in the current logistics industry. In the past, last - mile delivery relied on manually - driven tricycles or small trucks. Couriers needed to make 4 - 5 round - trips between the outlet and the transfer point every day, and each trip took about 40 - 60 minutes.
That is to say, couriers spend four or five hours on the road every day, facing problems such as efficiency bottlenecks and high labor costs. However, the high - frequency demand just spreads out the cost of unmanned logistics vehicles.
As a sub - industry with the largest parcel volume and the highest degree of goods standardization in the logistics industry, the logistics delivery industry has a high degree of standardization in its business model. The work processes, routes, and time of leading enterprises are relatively fixed, providing a good foundation for the application of automation and intelligent technologies.
With the continuous maturity of the technology of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles, their usage costs have reached or even fallen below those of traditional vehicles. The significant decline in hardware costs is a key prerequisite for the mass production of L4 vehicles. The continuous decline in the overall vehicle price provides a hardware foundation for the viability of the business model. Currently, the overall price of unmanned logistics vehicles is showing a cliff - like decline, directly promoting the viability of the business model.
From 2018 to 2023, the cost per vehicle of Neolix's core model X3 decreased from 200,000 yuan for the first - generation model to 70,000 yuan; in June 2024, the price of some products of Jiushi Intelligence dropped to 50,000 yuan, and further decreased to 20,000 yuan in May 2025. Behind this cost - decline curve is the combined effect of optimized technical routes, domestic hardware, and large - scale production.
For the autonomous driving and assisted driving industries, safety is the focus of common concern across the industry. In the field of