Intense Sino-US Competition in the Starlink Arena, Both Overt and Covert

The "China-US Starlink" battle is in full swing.

On August 5th, SpaceX announced that Starlink satellite internet was officially launched in Somalia, a backward and impoverished country.

A decade ago, Elon Musk put forward a grand vision: to deploy 42,000 small satellites in low Earth orbit, hundreds of kilometers above the Earth's surface, to create a satellite internet network encircling the Earth. This vision is known as "Starlink".

Since the first launch of Starlink satellites in 2019, SpaceX has deployed over 7,000 satellites in orbit.

Subsequently, on April 26th, 2021, China established a new central state - owned enterprise, China Satellite Network Group Co., Ltd. (China SatNet Group), dedicated to the design, construction, and operation of satellite internet. In the ranking of central state - owned enterprises by the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, it is ranked after China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile, indicating that the country's top leadership has regarded satellite internet and satellite communication as new strategic frontiers.

Source: List of central state - owned enterprises of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission

Meanwhile, the Chinese version of the "Starlink" system, composed of China SatNet, the "Qianfan Constellation" of Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite, and commercial space companies such as Space-Time Daoyu under Geely, has been well - established. In the future, more than 27,000 satellites will be launched into space.

What many people don't know, a fact that subverts the thinking of urban people, is that about one - third of the world's population still has no access to the internet, and 94% of the Earth's area has no internet signal at all.

As China enters a new era of economic globalization, sectors such as mining internet, ocean shipping, aerospace, military, disaster prevention and mitigation, and intelligent transportation will generate a huge demand for satellite communication.

A golden age for the satellite industry chain has begun, but most people are still unaware of it.

China's Starlink

In just a few years, the "Chinese version of Starlink" jointly built by central state - owned enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, and private enterprises has basically taken shape.

Within a short period of less than a week from August 4th to 9th, China completed two satellite launches. First, at 18:00 on August 4th, the Long March 12 carrier rocket successfully launched the 07th group of low - orbit satellites for satellite internet in Hainan. This was the seventh batch launch of the "Guowang (GW) Constellation" by China SatNet, only five days after the sixth batch launch on July 30th.

Then, at 0:00 on August 9th, the Jielong 3 carrier rocket successfully launched the fourth - orbit satellites of the Geely Constellation in a single launch of 11 satellites. The Geely Constellation is built and operated by Space - Time Daoyu. After this launch, the number of satellites in orbit of the Geely Constellation increased to 41.

Earlier in March, the Long March 8 Ya - 6 carrier rocket launched the fifth batch of satellites of the Qianfan Constellation into the scheduled orbit in a single launch of 18 satellites.

After high - frequency launches, it is roughly estimated that the total number of China's in - orbit communication satellites has exceeded 800, accounting for 24% of the world's total in - orbit communication satellites. China has become a strong force that can compete with Musk's (and the US state - owned agency NASA system behind him) Starlink program.

The Guowang (GW) Constellation is led by the central state - owned enterprise China SatNet Group. The G60 Qianfan Constellation is initiated by Songjiang District, Shanghai, with Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Company as the implementing entity. The Geely Constellation is invested in and built by Space - Time Daoyu under Geely Holding. Projects such as the Hongyan Constellation and the Hongyun Project are also advancing simultaneously.

A Chinese satellite blueprint drawn by multiple entities, including central and local state - owned enterprises, local governments, and private capital, has been unfolded.

Among them, the GW Constellation is regarded as the real Chinese version of Starlink. It is China's first giant satellite internet program and the first space - air integrated 6G internet program. A total of 12,992 satellites are planned to be deployed. The GW - A59 sub - constellation consists of 6,080 satellites, deployed in extremely low orbits below 500 kilometers. The GW - A2 sub - constellation consists of 6,912 satellites, deployed in low Earth orbits at 1,145 kilometers.

The Qianfan Constellation is an important part of the Chinese version of "Starlink". So far, 90 networking satellites have been launched. The future vision is to create a huge constellation composed of more than 14,000 low - orbit satellites.

Source: Yuanxin Satellite

Space - Time Daoyu is also accelerating its launch rhythm. It is expected that within the next two months, the number of satellites in orbit of the Geely Constellation will increase to 64. This means that by then, the Geely Constellation will be able to achieve data communication on any part of the Earth's surface except the North and South Poles.

After the completion of multiple grand plans, the total number of China's low - orbit satellites will exceed 27,000.

Currently, SpaceX has deployed over 7,600 satellites in orbit, and Musk plans to launch a total of 42,000 satellites. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) stipulates that satellite frequencies and orbits must be deployed within seven years after application; otherwise, the scale will be reduced. To seize the time, a "space race" for orbits and communication frequencies has begun.

To avoid resource invalidation, most of the launch tasks of projects such as the GW Constellation and the Qianfan Constellation need to be completed before 2030.

The next 5 - 6 years will be a peak period for satellite research, development, and launch, which is also a necessary pre - work for the Chinese version of Starlink. Currently, the Long March 12 and Long March 5B have undertaken multiple batches of launch tasks. Private rocket companies are also eager to participate. Galaxy Power has sent 81 satellites into space. LandSpace and iSpace plan to join the launch queue in 2026 to further enhance launch capabilities.

It is estimated that by 2030, China will launch more than 1,800 satellites per year, forming a regular deployment capacity of "hundreds of rockets and thousands of satellites". That is to say, a total of more than 10,000 satellites will be launched from 2025 to 2030.

In the next decade, China's in - orbit internet satellites will go through three stages of development: "rapid growth, large - scale deployment, and long - term operation". Currently, we are only in the initial deployment stage.

Urgent Needs

The establishment of China's satellite internet is closely related to the globalization of Chinese enterprises.

Satellite communication is widely used in sectors such as mining, shipping, fishing, and the military. With SpaceX setting a good example, Starlink currently has over 6 million users globally, showing great commercial value. In 2024, Starlink's revenue was estimated to be $8.2 billion, and Musk expects it to reach $10 billion this year, boosting SpaceX's latest valuation to $400 billion.

Currently, Chinese mining giants such as Minmetals, Zijin Mining, and Tsingshan are leading a new round of global integration. There are more than 300,000 mines globally, and 110,000 of them are in China. Most of these mines are located in remote areas, especially in South America and Africa, where communication signals are extremely unstable or even completely absent. This poses a huge obstacle to the intelligent and unmanned transformation and upgrading of mines.

Since July 2023, China has successively launched multiple mining satellites, such as the "CUMT Nanhu", "Zhedi 1", and "Kaiwu Constellation - Test Satellite". Among them, the "CUMT Nanhu" was led by China University of Mining and Technology and XCMG. It is the first dedicated mining satellite in China and even the world.

Thanks to the assistance of these satellites, like having a "God's eye view", enterprises will have an edge in resource exploration, mineral monitoring, weather warning, geological environment survey, and mine disaster relief.

Many aerospace technology startups have emerged in this niche market. For example, K - SPACE, established in 2024, claims to be the world's only company focusing on the mining satellite internet field. It cooperates with Galaxy Power's "Ceres 1" to build the world's first satellite internet constellation for the mining industry - the "Kaiwu Constellation" and the "Interstellar Mining Internet". It plans to launch 20 - 25 satellites in 2025.

Africa is rich in mineral resources, and Chinese enterprises are already using satellites to prospect for minerals in Africa. On May 20th this year, the Aerospace Planning and Design Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Zambia Galaxy Remote Sensing Satellite Technology Company, marking a new stage in the in - depth application of Chinese remote sensing satellites and airborne geophysical exploration technology in Africa.

In the era of Chinese manufacturing going global, ocean shipping is the "lifeline" of international trade. However, traditional maritime communication methods face problems such as insufficient bandwidth, high latency, many blind spots, and high costs, making it difficult to meet the needs of modern shipping.

In the vast and unpredictable ocean, only by connecting to the satellite communication network can real - time data transmission and intelligent transformation of shipping be achieved. Like a "digital lighthouse" at sea, satellite internet solves the long - standing communication problems in the industry.

Data shows that after an international shipping company deployed a low - orbit satellite IoT, the ship's communication cost was reduced by 40%, safety incidents during navigation were reduced by 30%, and operational efficiency was increased by 20%.

The situation in the ocean fishing industry is similar. Relying on cooperation with local telecom operators, Space - Time Daoyu and Oman's Azyan Telecom plan to provide stable satellite IoT communication services for tens of thousands of local fishing boats, greatly improving the safety and accuracy of ocean fishing.

Moreover, since satellites are a global product, commercial space companies have a natural advantage in global cooperation.

Wang Yang, the CEO of Space - Time Daoyu, has clearly stated that Geely's future travel constellation will be the first to provide global commercial services. In April this year, Space - Time Daoyu established a joint venture, ADISB, with Malaysia's ALTEL, promoting the local application of the Geely Constellation in the country. In addition, the Geely Constellation has also entered North Africa and Latin America, cooperating with Morocco's maritime communication giant Soremar to promote the application in sectors such as transportation, energy, and agriculture.

While going global, the "grand space era" has also become an opportunity that Chinese enterprises must seize.

Foundation of the Grand Plan

The satellite communication industry chain can be roughly divided into four stages: "research and development, launch, operation, and application". Currently, China is still in the early deployment stage, and manufacturing and launch are the foundation for building a space - air integrated network.

Thanks to the Starship's strong launch capacity and reusability, as well as its self - built satellite production capacity, SpaceX dominates the global market. In May this year, when introducing the Mars immigration plan, Musk said that SpaceX plans to produce 5,000 V3 - version satellites per year in the future, ultimately reaching a super - scale production capacity of 10,000 satellites per year.

With the accelerated deployment of low - orbit constellation systems, the demand for satellite manufacturing has increased significantly, and low - cost and high - efficiency manufacturing models are highly favored. High - safety and high - capacity commercial space companies are also emerging like mushrooms after rain. In both fields, there is fierce competition between state - owned and private enterprises.

The grand plan of a constellation of tens of thousands of satellites must be based on manufacturing. Data shows that the global satellite manufacturing market size will reach $24.493 billion in 2024 and increase to $38.969 billion in 2029, with an average annual growth rate of 9.73%.

The Fifth Academy and Eighth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, China Aerospace Science and Industry Space Engineering Development Co., Ltd., and the Innovation Academy for Microsatellites of the Chinese Academy of Sciences form three national teams capable of researching, developing, and producing whole satellites.

The Innovation Academy for Microsatellites has undertaken the research and development task of the first - generation 324 satellites of the "Qianfan Constellation" and has the capacity to produce more than 300 satellites per year. In the future, it will support the launch of 36 satellites per rocket to meet the demand for large - scale and intensive launches.

The China Academy of Space Technology (the Fifth Academy of Aerospace) is the backbone of China's satellite industry. Its first president was Qian Xuesen. China's first artificial earth satellite, "Dongfanghong - 1", and the first navigation satellite, Beidou - 1, were born here. It has a listed company, China Spacesat Co., Ltd.

Last year, China Spacesat successfully launched 24 small/micro - satellites. The Queqiao - 2 relay satellite is a key part of the lunar exploration project, providing relay communication services for Chang'e - 4, Chang'e - 6, etc., and successfully supporting Chang'e - 6 to complete the lunar back - side sampling mission.

The private sector should not be underestimated either. Micro - Nano Starspace plans to build an intelligent production line with an annual output of 150 satellites and has successfully launched 27 satellites. Relying on Geely's strong manufacturing capabilities, Space - Time Daoyu deeply integrates satellite manufacturing with the existing automobile production line, "manufacturing satellites like manufacturing cars". Its satellite production cycle has been compressed to less than 28