Analysis of the automotive industry and future trends from the latest Japanese automotive research report.
In the unprecedented transformation of the global automotive industry in a century, the changes in China's market and technology system are reshaping the international competitive landscape.
The latest research released by the Japan Automobile Research Institute (JARI) in May 2025, based on market and technology data from 2023 to early 2024, systematically analyzed the development trends of the Chinese and international automotive markets, the technological iteration paths, and the industrial chain patterns of new energy vehicles, intelligent connected vehicles, and autonomous driving. Combining the strategic moves of major global automakers, it put forward in - depth judgments for the next five to ten years.
The report points out that China not only firmly holds the position of the world's largest automotive market but also widens the gap with major competitors in terms of new energy penetration rate, export scale, and the speed of industrial chain integration, directly impacting the global price system, supply - chain structure, and technology diffusion. Meanwhile, although the electrification and intelligentization trends in the international market are irresistible, there are significant regional differences and inconsistent policy rhythms, requiring enterprises to formulate regional and differentiated strategic layouts.
For Chinese strategic managers, the core value of this report lies in three aspects:
1. Understand the pattern change - Comprehend China's strategic position in the global new energy and intelligent connected vehicle fields and how this change in position will alter the logic of trans - national competition;
2. Grasp the technological pulse - Keep track of the iteration rhythm of key technologies such as batteries, chips, algorithms, and vehicle - road collaboration to find the best windows for investment and exit;
3. Deal with global uncertainties - Amid uncertainties such as resource price fluctuations, supply - chain localization, and regulations and data compliance, find a safe and scalable growth path.
This is not only a data report but also a strategic navigation for senior managers, aiming to help enterprises seize the opportunity, avoid risks, and build long - term competitiveness in the rapidly changing market and technological environment.
China's Automotive Market Breakthrough: From Local Champion to Global Disruptor
As the vane of the global automotive industry, the Chinese market is reshaping the pattern at an astonishing speed. The latest data shows that China has firmly secured the top position as the world's largest automotive market and achieved leap - forward growth in the new energy field (especially in pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles). This is not only a victory in sales but also the result of the combined efforts of supply - chain integration, large - scale manufacturing, and policy drive.
1. A Bigger Stage In 2023, China's automobile sales exceeded 30 million for the first time, among which new energy vehicles accounted for more than 9 million, about 30%. It is expected that in 2024, this proportion will rise to 35% - 40%, far higher than that in Europe (about 20%) and the United States (about 10%). More importantly, China's automobile exports reached 4.91 million in 2023, surpassing Japan to become the world's largest automobile exporter.
2. Changing the Global Game Rules Chinese automakers not only dominate the domestic market but also spread the shockwave of price wars globally. The overseas prices of electric vehicles of brands such as BYD, SAIC, and Geely are generally 20% - 30% lower than those of their European and American counterparts in the same class, forcing global peers to re - price. Meanwhile, China controls 60% of the world's power battery production capacity, holds the pricing power in the new energy supply chain, and accelerates the update rhythm of electric drive systems and vehicle control software overseas through rapid technological iteration.
3. Signals That Strategic Managers Must Pay Attention To
Redrawing of the Competitive Landscape: The share of traditional trans - national automakers in China has been continuously declining, and the share of some brands has even dropped to single - digits; while the presence of Chinese brands in markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe is increasing sharply.
Dual - Cycle Drive: The domestic market stimulates demand through subsidies, carbon credits, and local policies; the international market establishes manufacturing bases through the Belt and Road Initiative to reduce tariff and logistics risks.
Localization and Brand Upgrade: Overseas layout not only needs to meet the safety, emission, and user - experience standards of each country but also make a qualitative leap in brand image to win long - term trust.
From a strategic consulting perspective, this is not simply a story of sales but a comprehensive competition about industrial chain control, globalization layout ability, and brand building ability.
The New Global Automotive Market Pattern: Undercurrents and Opportunities in the Slowdown
After a rapid rebound from the impact of the pandemic, the global automotive market is entering a new stage of "slowing growth in volume and drastic structural changes".
In 2023, global automobile sales rebounded to about 90 million, approaching the pre - pandemic level, but the average annual growth rate is expected to be less than 2% in the next five years. However, beneath this seemingly calm surface, the waves of new energy and intelligentization are profoundly rewriting the industry map.
1. Structural Growth Led by New Energy In 2023, global new energy vehicle sales reached 14 million, accounting for about 16% of the total sales. According to the current trend, the penetration rate is expected to exceed 50% by 2030.
Europe: With the most aggressive policies, it will ban the sale of fuel - powered vehicles completely by 2035, and the new energy penetration rate reached 23% in 2023.
North America: Driven by subsidy policies such as the IRA Act, the penetration rate is about 10%.
Emerging Markets: Although the penetration rate in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa is less than 5%, there is huge potential for future growth.
2. Dual - Engine Transformation of Technology and Industry
Parallel Development of Electrification and Intelligentization: The battery cost has dropped to about $100/kWh and is expected to fall to $60 - 70/kWh by 2030; the penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving in China, the United States, and Europe has exceeded 30%, and mainstream models may have L3 - level functions by 2030.
Platform - Based Production: Unified electric drive platforms have become the mainstream. A single platform can cover multiple vehicle models, reducing development costs by 20% - 30%.
Exploration of Energy Diversification: Hydrogen fuel and synthetic fuel are steadily advancing in the fields of commercial vehicles and special - purpose vehicles.
3. Key Variables That Strategic Managers Need to Pay Attention To
Regional Layout: There are huge differences in penetration rate, policy rhythm, and energy infrastructure among different markets. Promoting high - end battery - electric vehicles (BEV) in Europe and focusing on hybrid vehicles (HEV/PHEV) in Southeast Asia may be more efficient.
Supply - Chain Security and Localization: Europe and the United States are accelerating the requirements for local production. The local procurement ratio of batteries and core components needs to reach 40% - 60%, which affects trans - national investment and layout.
Competition in Technological Rhythm: The differences in the iteration speed of Tesla, BYD, Toyota, Volkswagen, etc. in batteries, software, and intelligent driving will determine the future competitive ranking.
Policy Uncertainty: Carbon - emission regulations and subsidy policies may be adjusted rapidly. Real - time monitoring and rapid response mechanisms must be established.
From the perspective of research institutions, the global market is no longer a "single game" but a three - dimensional competition with multiple speeds, multiple policies, and multiple technological routes. If enterprises cannot allocate resources accurately and adjust the technological rhythm synchronously, they may lose speed on different regional tracks.
Reinventing the New Energy Industry Landscape with the "Three Electric Systems" at the Core
In the wave of global energy transformation, the focus of competition in new energy vehicles is shifting from "vehicle manufacturing" itself to the systematic capabilities of power batteries and the entire industrial chain. From technological breakthroughs to industrial collaboration, China is rapidly building a globally leading competitive high - ground with its scale advantages, supply - chain integration capabilities, and policy drive.
1. Technological Trends: Triple Breakthroughs in Efficiency, Cost, and Safety
Two - Track Development of Battery Technology: High - energy - density ternary lithium batteries target long - range and high - end models; low - cost and long - life lithium iron phosphate batteries are accelerating their popularization in mid - to low - end passenger cars and commercial vehicles.
Imminent Breakthrough of Solid - State Batteries: Mass production is expected from 2025 - 2028, with an energy density of 350 - 400 Wh/kg and significantly improved safety.
Declining Cost Curve: The battery cost has dropped to about $100/kWh and is expected to fall to $60 - 70/kWh by 2030. The era of affordable electric vehicles is approaching.
Integration of Drive Systems: The three - in - one electric drive platform reduces costs by 15% - 20%, and SiC power devices improve efficiency and reduce weight.
Diversification of Energy - Replenishment Methods: Ultra - fast charging of over 350kW makes 15 - minute charging a reality; the battery - swapping model is accelerating its implementation in high - frequency operation scenarios (such as taxis and heavy trucks).
2. Industrial Chain Pattern: Full - Chain Control from Resources to Applications
Upstream Resources: China controls more than 60% of the world's battery - grade lithium refining capacity, but the prices of key resources such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt fluctuate greatly, making resource security a strategic priority.
Mid - Stream Manufacturing: Chinese manufacturers such as CATL and BYD account for more than 60% of the global power battery production; Japanese and Korean manufacturers maintain an advantage in high - end battery technology.
Downstream Applications: Passenger cars remain the main market, but commercial vehicles, construction machinery, ships, and energy storage are rising rapidly. In 2023, China's new energy vehicle exports exceeded 1.2 million.
3. Five Strategic Propositions That Management Must Pay Attention To
Supply - Chain Security: Gain control over raw materials and key components to resist risks from overseas policies and trade barriers.
Technological Iteration Rhythm: Accurately judge the best investment timing for new technologies such as solid - state batteries and 800V high - voltage platforms.
Global Layout: Respond to the local production requirements of Europe and the United States, and reduce tariff and supply - chain risks through overseas factories and local cooperation.
Business Model Innovation: Develop new models such as battery swapping, BaaS (Battery as a Service), and vehicle OTA upgrades to extend the value of the industrial chain.
Cross - Border Integration: Form a closed - loop ecosystem with energy storage, renewable energy, and intelligent transportation to magnify the industrial synergy effect.
From the perspective of research institutions, the competition in new energy has entered the era of "systematic capabilities" - Whoever can simultaneously control the technological rhythm, supply - chain security, and business model innovation will have absolute say in the future global new energy race.
The Accelerated Race of Intelligent Connected Vehicles: The Leap from Assisted Driving to Driverless Driving
Autonomous driving and intelligent connected vehicle technologies are becoming the "next engine" of the global automotive industry. In this field, the scope of testing and application in China is expanding rapidly, from the popularization of L2 assisted driving in mid - to high - end models to the commercialization of L4 driverless driving in ports and trunk logistics. The speed of technological iteration and implementation is setting new records.
1. Technological Evolution: From "Helping You Drive" to "Driving for You"
Graded Breakthroughs: L2/L2+ has become standard in mid - to high - end models, covering functions such as adaptive cruise control (ACC), lane - keeping, and automatic lane - changing; L3 is expected to be mass - produced in markets such as China, Germany, and Japan in 2025, achieving "hands - free" driving under specific conditions such as highways; L4 is expected to be commercialized in limited areas from 2027 - 2030, such as in Robotaxi and port unmanned transportation.
Upgrading of Core Technologies: Multi - sensor fusion (cameras + millimeter - wave radars + lidars) makes all - weather perception possible; centimeter - level high - precision maps combined with V2X technology improve positioning accuracy; vehicle computing power is leaping from 100 TOPS to 1000 TOPS, and the popularization of central computing architectures and domain controllers paves the way for continuous OTA upgrades.
Accelerated Vehicle - Road Collaboration: China leads in the construction of 5G - V2X and C - V2X infrastructure. It is expected that by 2025, highways and urban expressways will be widely covered, which helps reduce the dependence of autonomous driving on high - precision maps and accelerate commercial implementation.
2. Industrial Layout: Deep Bonding between Tech Giants and Automakers
Upstream Technologies: NVIDIA, Mobileye, Huawei MDC, and Horizon Robotics are in fierce competition in the chip field; Baidu, AutoNavi, and NavInfo dominate high - precision maps; Hesai Technology, DJI Livox, etc. lead sensor innovation.
Strategies of Automobile Manufacturers: Domestic brands such as BYD, Great Wall, Geely, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto actively conduct self - research or cooperate with technology companies; trans - national automakers such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and Mercedes - Benz regard the commercialization of L3 and the high - end market as breakthrough points.
Travel and Logistics: Baidu Apollo Go, Pony.ai, WeRide, etc. have been operating Robotaxi in many places; TuSimple, PlusAI, etc. are promoting the implementation of autonomous heavy trucks in ports and trunk logistics.
3. Key Data Overview
3.1 By 2025, the global penetration rate of L2 and above autonomous driving is expected to reach 50%, and 60% in the Chinese market.
3.2 The L3 penetration rate is expected to reach 5% - 10% in China in 2025 and exceed 30% by 2030.
3.3 The market size of autonomous driving chips will grow from $5 billion in 2023 to more than $20 billion by 2030.
3.3 The single - vehicle operating cost of Robotaxi is expected to drop from 300,000 - 400,000 yuan in 2023 to less than 150,000 yuan by 2030.
4. Six Key Issues That Management Needs to Grasp
Technological Moat: Reduce dependence on overseas supply chains through self - developed chips and algorithms to build differentiated advantages.
Regulations First: Adapt to L3/L4 regulations and liability - sharing models in advance and explore new solutions for autonomous driving insurance. Data Security: Comply with the requirements of local data storage and security reviews to ensure compliance in trans - national operations.
Business Model Upgrade: Shift from one - time vehicle sales to "software subscription + data service" to extend the user lifecycle value.
Priority Implementation in Scenarios: Prioritize deployment in low - complexity and high - value scenarios such as highways, ports, and industrial parks, and gradually expand to open roads.
Joint Construction of Infrastructure: Cooperate with the government and operators to build intelligent transportation networks and seize the opportunity to be the first in pilot cities.
From the perspective of research institutions, the competition in intelligent connected vehicles and autonomous driving is no longer just about technology but about who can commercialize the technology safely, compliantly, and sustainably the fastest.
Japan's Automotive Industry's "Next Move": From Passive Response to Active Layout
The global automotive industry is at a critical juncture of transformation. External pressures such as raw material price fluctuations, supply - chain instability, and geopolitical risks are intertwined with internal challenges such as technological commercialization, regulation implementation, and data security. Japanese automakers are facing unprecedented tests in the wave of intelligentization and electrification.