A year of extremes for the catering industry: A 2.8 - trillion growth and a wave of 1.61 million store closures

In the first half of 2025, the scale of China's catering market reached 2.85 trillion yuan, a slight year - on - year increase of 4.1%, continuing the post - pandemic recovery trend. However, behind this "total growth" report card, 1.61 million restaurants closed down quietly - which means that more than 8,800 stores closed every day, and on average, 6 catering business owners bid farewell to the market every minute. More seriously, the number of closed stores throughout the year is expected to exceed 3 million, and popular categories such as fast food and snacks have become the "hard - hit areas". Coupled with the "alcohol ban" cutting off the high profit margin of alcohol and the "full - staff social insurance" driving up labor costs, the catering industry is going through a test of "ice and fire": on the one hand, chain brands are expanding against the trend by virtue of their scale advantages; on the other hand, small and medium - sized merchants are struggling to survive in the gap between costs and policies.

01. Current Situation: Slight Scale Growth Fails to Conceal Individual Pains, and the Differentiation between Chains and Small Businesses Intensifies

The market's total volume shows a slight increase but the growth rate slows down. There is a huge gap between chain brands and small and medium - sized merchants, and the revenue of catering enterprises above a designated size shows negative growth for the first time.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to June 2025, the national catering revenue was 2,748 billion yuan (about 2.75 trillion yuan), a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 2.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Calculated according to the 2.85 trillion yuan mentioned by users, the growth rate is about 4.1%, further confirming the judgment of "total growth but weakening momentum". Structurally, the revenue of catering enterprises above a designated size (with an annual revenue of more than 2 million yuan) decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, the first negative growth since 2023, indicating that high - end catering and leading chain brands are also under pressure.

The differentiation is particularly significant: on the one hand, the chain rate has continuously increased to 24%, and leading brands are seizing the market through supply - chain integration and digital management - the net profit of Green Tea Group in the first half of the year increased by 32% - 36%, and the daily average net profit of Xiaocaiyuan was nearly 2 million yuan; on the other hand, the living space of small and medium - sized merchants has been squeezed. Although 1.599 million new catering stores were opened in the first half of the year, the difference between new openings and closures was only 700,000, 40% narrower than in 2024. The China Cuisine Association pointed out that the industry has entered the stage of "stock competition" from "incremental competition", and the survival rate of single stores lacking core competitiveness is less than 30%.

02. Dilemma: Double Squeezing from Policies and Costs, Fast Food Becomes the Hard - Hit Area of Store Closures

The "alcohol ban" cuts off the high profit margin of alcohol, the "full - staff social insurance" drives up labor costs. Coupled with the new social insurance regulations and consumption downgrade, the fast - food category has become the "sacrificial victim" of the industry due to low - threshold involution.

1. Policy Impact: From "Dinner - Table Economy" to "Compliance Pains"

The policy environment of the catering industry in 2025 can be called the "strictest in history". The "alcohol ban" implemented in May clearly stipulates that "no alcohol is served at work meals" for official receptions, directly impacting the profit structure of high - end catering. Data from a high - end chain restaurant shows that the order volume of business banquets dropped by 40% suddenly, and the proportion of alcohol revenue fell from 35% to 12%. The number of high - end restaurants with an average per - capita consumption of more than 500 yuan in Beijing and Shanghai decreased by 52%, and the occupancy rate of private rooms dropped from 70% to 30%. Some brands were forced to transform into the mass market and launched a series of "business set meals".

The new social insurance regulations have pushed small - scale catering businesses into a survival crisis. In July, the Supreme People's Court clearly stated that "agreements to voluntarily waive social insurance are invalid", and enterprises need to participate in social insurance for all employees, resulting in an average increase of 20% in labor costs. Take a Wuhan hot - dry noodle shop as an example. After 6 employees paid social insurance according to their actual salaries (with an average of 6,000 yuan per person), the enterprise had an additional monthly expenditure of 12,000 yuan. "It's equivalent to selling 200 more bowls of hot - dry noodles every day to cover the costs." Eventually, the profit margin was compressed from 8% to 3%, and the shop closed down. The owner of a Beijing ramen shop calculated that the social insurance expenditure for 3 employees increased by 18,000 yuan per month. "The original monthly net profit was 20,000 yuan, but now it's like working for nothing." Eventually, he chose to close the shop to stop losses.

Regional policy differences have intensified the survival differentiation. Taking Shanghai and Shenzhen as examples, the lower limit of the social insurance base in Shanghai is 7,384 yuan, 9.7% higher than that in Shenzhen (6,733 yuan), resulting in a 15% difference in labor costs for similar restaurants. Shenzhen implements a "social insurance buffer policy" for small - scale catering enterprises with fewer than 10 employees, allowing them to pay 80% of the base in the first three years. A Hunan cuisine restaurant in Luohu District saves 3,200 yuan per month as a result. "The saved money can hire an extra dishwasher."

2. High Costs: Rising Rent and Labor Costs, Fast Food Becomes the "Sacrificial Victim"

In the first half of the year, the store - closure rate in the catering industry reached 22.66%, and the fast - food category was the first to bear the brunt. NCBD data shows that the store - closure rate of crayfish restaurants is 37.2%, that of spicy hot pots is 31.8%, and that of braised chicken rice is 31.5%, all far exceeding the industry average. Low - threshold involution is the main reason: There are 8 spicy hot pot restaurants within 500 meters in a certain business district. Franchisees launched a price war to compete for customers, and the average customer price dropped from 25 yuan to 15 yuan. "The profit per order is only 3 yuan, and it all depends on high volume."

The costs of ingredients and rent have continued to be under pressure. In the first half of the year, the price of pork increased by 28% year - on - year, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by more than 30%. A chain fast - food brand estimated that the proportion of ingredient costs has risen from 28% to 35%. In the core business districts of first - tier cities, the proportion of rent in turnover generally exceeded the 15% warning line. A fast - food restaurant on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai has a monthly rent of 120,000 yuan. "It loses 4,000 yuan as soon as it opens the door every day."

The new environmental protection regulations have become a new source of pressure. In 2025, the "Catering Industry Oil Fume Emission Standard" reduced the limit of oil fume emission concentration from 2.0mg/m³ to 1.0mg/m³. Areas such as Beijing and Shanghai require the installation of a three - stage purification system of "electrostatic + UV photolysis + activated carbon", and the renovation cost of a single store is about 18,000 yuan. A noodle shop in Hangzhou was fined 50,000 yuan and ordered to suspend business for rectification for 7 days because it failed to upgrade its equipment in time. "The loss far exceeded the equipment investment."

3. Consumption Downgrade: Declining Average Customer Price and Differentiated Demand

The structural changes in consumers' behavior have intensified the industry's pains. Meituan data shows that in the first half of 2025, the average customer price in the catering industry decreased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the proportion of orders below 30 yuan increased to 62%. The average customer price of a chain hot - pot brand dropped from 120 yuan to 95 yuan. "Previously, the consumption per table was 500 yuan, but now it's difficult to reach 300 yuan."

The demand for health has promoted the reconstruction of the product structure. Consumers' attention to "low - fat", "low - sugar", and "clean - label" products has increased. The order volume of a salad brand increased by 45%, while the customer flow of traditional high - fat and high - salt snack shops decreased by 30%. "Previously, we attracted customers with strong flavors, but now young people care more about the origin of ingredients," the founder of a fried - chicken brand admitted. Due to the failure to adjust the product structure in time, 15 stores were closed in the first half of the year.

03. Breakthrough: Efficiency Revolution and Model Innovation, Chainization and Digitalization Are the Keys

Leading brands build barriers through supply - chain integration and digital management. Small and medium - sized merchants break through by leveraging policy buffers and niche scenarios. The industry is shifting from "price competition" to "value competition".

1. Chainization: From "Fighting Alone" to "Surviving Together"

Chain brands are accelerating industry integration by virtue of their scale advantages. The chain rate of the catering industry is expected to exceed 24% in 2025, 12 percentage points higher than in 2020. Centralized procurement in the supply chain is the core weapon: By using a central kitchen, Mixue Bingcheng has reduced ingredient costs by 20% and controlled the labor cost of a single store at 25%; Shuhai Supply Chain provides full - link services from "farm to table" for chain brands, reducing the ingredient loss rate from the industry average of 15% to 5%.

The franchise model has become a "lifeboat" for small and medium - sized merchants. Through the output of "supply chain + standardized operation", Jiandao Binggan helped franchisees shorten the profit - making cycle of a single store from 6 months to 3 months, and the number of stores expanded from 50 to 300. "Previously, I bought flour at 2.8 yuan per catty by myself. After joining the franchise, the group's purchase price is 1.9 yuan. I save 200 yuan every day just on this item," a franchisee said.

The tilting of policy resources has further widened the gap. Chain enterprises can enjoy a combined policy of "exemption from disability employment security funds + stable - employment subsidies", and a single store of a pickled - fish brand saves 52,000 yuan in costs annually; while individual businesses often miss out on subsidy opportunities due to their lack of policy - docking capabilities. "Although we pay social insurance in the same way, chain brands can get a 30% refund, but we have to bear the full cost."

2. Digitalization: From "Experience - Based Decision - Making" to "Data - Driven"

AI and Internet of Things technologies have reconstructed operational efficiency. Haidilao introduced an intelligent scheduling system, which dynamically adjusts the labor force according to the prediction of customer flow. The proportion of full - time employees dropped from 70% to 50%, and labor costs were reduced by 18%; Luckin Coffee used an AI inventory model to reduce the raw material scrapping rate to 1.2% (the industry average is 15%), and a single store saves 120,000 yuan in costs annually.

Pre - made dishes and automated equipment have relieved the pressure in the kitchen. The usage rate of pre - made dishes in a chain fast - food brand reaches 70%, the number of kitchen staff is reduced by 40%, and the meal - serving speed is increased by 3 times; The robot restaurant of Country Garden uses a fully automatic cooking machine, reducing labor costs by 40%. "Previously, the work done by 10 people can now be completed by 3 machines."

Digital marketing can accurately reach consumers. Heytea has accumulated 20 million members through enterprise WeChat, and the repurchase rate reaches 38%; Taier Pickled Fish launched a "short - video challenge", and users spontaneously spread UGC content. The playback volume of a single video exceeded 100 million, driving a 25% increase in store customer flow.

3. Model Innovation: The Rise of Niche Scenarios and the Sub - market

Niche scenarios have become new growth