Flying cars: Initiating large-scale test flights

Flying cars are gradually moving from science fiction scenarios to real life.

On August 5th, Zhao Deli, the CEO of XPeng HT, announced the official launch of the test pilot team, which also marks that flying cars have officially entered the "large-scale test flight" stage.

Meanwhile, preparations for mass production are accelerating. The main structure of XPeng HT's global first flying car mass production factory has been capped and is currently in the equipment debugging stage. It is expected to be officially completed in the fourth quarter of this year. According to the plan, its "Land Aircraft Carrier" flying car will be mass-produced and delivered in 2026.

As a representative enterprise of low-altitude aircraft, we can see the current position, prospects, and problems faced by flying cars from the progress of XPeng HT.

Three-leap from "Technology Verification" to "Large-scale Test Flight"

Looking back at the development of low-altitude aircraft in China, it can be roughly divided into the following three major stages:

Technology Exploration and Survival Stage (Early 2010s – 2019)

In 2013, Zhao Deli, who had the flying dream of "flying over Dongting Lake", founded Dongguan HT Technology. In the early stage, it focused on drone research and development, accumulating technology and funds with the world's smallest fuel-powered remote-controlled helicopter. Since 2016, Zhao Deli's team has fully turned to the research and development of flying car prototypes. They experienced difficulties such as a broken capital chain and selling houses to inject funds. Finally, in 2018, they achieved the first manned flight of the flying car prototype, and they had accumulated more than 1,500 flight sorties before the first flight.

In 2019, Zhao Deli met He Xiaopeng, the founder of XPeng Motors, and the two hit it off immediately. In July 2020, XPeng Motors made a strategic investment and took control of the company, which was officially renamed "Guangdong HT Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd." (XPeng HT). He Xiaopeng serves as the chairman, and Zhao Deli serves as the president, marking the beginning of the systematic car manufacturing stage.

This stage belongs to the technology verification period of low-altitude aircraft. Drone enterprises represented by DJI, EHang, and Fengfei verified the feasibility of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) technology.

Technology Verification and Capital-driven Stage (2020 - 2024)

Automobile enterprises represented by XPeng, Geely, GAC, and Changan crossed boundaries and began to layout the flying car track.

In 2020, XPeng Motors took control of HT Technology and established XPeng HT. In the same year, Geely acquired Sichuan Aoshi Technology and reorganized it with Terrafugia (acquired by Geely in 2017) into Volantour. In June 2023, the flying car GOVE independently developed by GAC Group made its first flight debut. In December 2024, GAC established Gaoyu Technology, becoming its low-altitude travel technology brand...

Since then, enterprises such as XPeng HT, Volantour, and GAC Gaoyu Technology have brought "flying cars" into the public view. The keywords of this stage are "first flight", "first round of financing", and "first route". The entire industry is in the technology verification period and the capital-driven stage.

Large-scale Implementation and Commercialization Launch Stage (Starting from 2025)

In this stage, leading enterprises have entered the sprint period for airworthiness certification. For example, XPeng HT's application for the production certificate (PC) of its flying vehicle has been officially accepted by the Civil Aviation Administration of South - Central China, and it is expected to obtain the type certificate (TC) before the end of the year. GAC Gaoyu's AirCab has entered the airworthiness certification stage, planning to obtain the certificate and start mass production and delivery in the second half of 2026, with the goal of making 2027 the first year of low-altitude manned flight.

GAC Gaoyu AirCab

EHang is faster. As the world's only unmanned eVTOL manned aircraft that has obtained three airworthiness certificates for manned flights, namely the type certificate (TC), production certificate (PC), and standard airworthiness certificate (AC), it has not only obtained the operation certificate, but its technology maturity and safety have also been certified by the Civil Aviation Administration of China. It is currently operating in scenic areas.

In August, Fengfei Aviation's "Kai Rui Ou" completed the world's first material transportation for an offshore oil platform and obtained the "three certificates" (TC/PC/AC). This not only innovates the offshore material supply mode but also marks a key step in China's application of low-altitude logistics scenarios on land and sea.

XPeng HT has entered the final sprint stage before mass production. The main structure of the "Land Aircraft Carrier" split-type flying car factory has been capped. It is planned to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2025 and go into mass production in 2026. Currently, nearly 5,000 orders have been locked in.

As an enterprise mainly targeting the C - end market, XPeng HT has clarified its development path based on user needs and the current technological situation. Qiu Mingquan, the vice president of XPeng HT, summarized it as a "three-step" product strategy in a recent interview.

Step one: Launch the split-type flying car "Land Aircraft Carrier", which is mainly used in flight experiences in restricted scenarios and the field of public services. Through large-scale mass production and sales, drive the construction and improvement of the low-altitude flight industrial chain and ecosystem, and verify the business model of flying cars. Step two: Launch high-speed and long-range electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) products to solve air traffic problems in typical scenarios. Simultaneously promote the construction of the urban three-dimensional transportation network with all parties related to low-altitude flight. Step three: Launch a land-air integrated flying car to truly achieve door-to-door and point-to-point urban 3D transportation.

Qiu Mingquan said that to meet more diverse needs, between step one and step two, XPeng HT plans to develop derivative products of the land vehicle and flying vehicle of the "Land Aircraft Carrier" to support users' needs for more scenario experiences and public services. Currently, XPeng HT is accelerating the construction of application scenarios for individual users and the public service field. For individual users, more than 200 flight camps are classified and laid out around cities and on classic self-driving tour routes. These camps have takeoff and landing platforms and clear airspace conditions, providing services such as flight experiences, operation services, flight training, and entertainment. For the public service field, the focus is on emergency organ transportation, power grid inspection, and fire fighting. The government has a strong willingness to pay, and it belongs to the "in-budget market".

A Trillion-dollar Market Space Awaits Explosion

What is the scale of the low-altitude flight market that can attract many enterprises to invest huge amounts of money?

Recently, a report released by Morgan Stanley predicted that by 2040, the global urban air mobility (UAM) market (referring to small planes flying around in cities) may reach 1 trillion US dollars, and by 2050, this figure may skyrocket to 9 trillion US dollars, much larger than the traditional automobile market.

In China, the "14th Five-Year Plan" also clearly proposes to develop the low-altitude economy and includes eVTOL in strategic emerging industries. This technological breakthrough not only has commercial value but also plays an important role in alleviating urban traffic pressure, reducing carbon emissions, and improving emergency response capabilities, becoming the core driving force for the development of the low-altitude economy in the new era.

Since 2021, China's low-altitude economy has entered a stage of rapid cultivation. In 2023, the market scale of China's low-altitude economy reached 505.95 billion yuan. It is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2026 and reach 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035.

In the huge market expectation, there are three major scenarios worthy of attention:

Firstly, low-altitude logistics: The cross-city takeoff and landing between Shenzhen and Zhuhai can be completed in 20 minutes, which can replace a two - hour land transportation. Meituan and SF Express have achieved regular 15 - minute "air takeaways".

Secondly, inter - city commuting: According to calculations in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, the scale of the three - dimensional travel market will reach 91 billion yuan in 2035. Among them, the Guangzhou - Shenzhen, Hong Kong - Zhuhai, and Shanghai - Hangzhou routes have the greatest potential.

Thirdly, public services: Emergency organ transportation, power grid inspection, and fire fighting. The government has a strong willingness to pay, and it belongs to the "in - budget market".

Judging from market forecasts, there is no need to worry about demand. There are huge potential demands in both the B - end and C - end markets. Now, all that is needed is a suitable product.

Three Major Hurdles on the Eve of Commercialization

However, the path from product to customer and commercialization is not easy. At present, the implementation of low - altitude aircraft still needs to solve several major problems such as policies, technology, and infrastructure.

Firstly, the regulatory system is imperfect, the airworthiness certification cycle is long, and there is a serious shortage of airworthiness talents.

Currently, the regulatory standards for low - altitude aircraft (such as eVTOL, flying cars, and logistics drones) are scattered and fragmented, lacking a unified top - level design framework. The responsibilities of multiple departments such as aviation, transportation, public security, and urban planning overlap, resulting in a long and cumbersome airspace approval process.

The airworthiness standards for low - altitude aircraft have not yet formed an independent and mature system. The traditional civil aviation airworthiness standards (FAA/EASA framework) are mainly for large aircraft and are difficult to be directly applied to new lightweight and electrified models such as eVTOL and flying cars. For example, innovative designs such as tilt - rotor and split - type flying cars lack dedicated airworthiness guidelines, resulting in a long certification cycle and high cost. Enterprises need to promote certification through "case - by - case" special reviews. The efficiency of the existing review team is insufficient. On average, it takes an enterprise 3 years to obtain the "three certificates" (type certificate, production certificate, airworthiness certificate), which is longer than the time it takes to build an aircraft.

For example, it took EHang's EH216 - S, the world's first manned eVTOL to obtain CAAC airworthiness certification, 3 years; Fengfei's V2000CG took 2.5 years to obtain the certificate for the cargo version, and the manned version is expected to obtain the certificate in 2026.

There are less than 200 airworthiness engineers in the whole country, mainly concentrated in institutions such as the Civil Aviation Administration of China, COMAC, and AVIC. There are less than 12,000 licensed general aviation pilots in the whole country. There is a shortage of about 100,000 drone instructors, airworthiness engineers, and air traffic control algorithm engineers.

In addition, the training system lags behind. There are few airworthiness majors in universities, and enterprises need to train personnel independently at a high cost. The maintenance of low - altitude aircraft requires a distributed service network, but the training cycle for professional maintenance personnel is long, and third - party service providers have not yet formed a scale.

In He Xiaopeng's view, manned eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft) is an important part of future urban air mobility (UAM). Due to the unique design and technology of eVTOL aircraft, which are significantly different from traditional aircraft, the existing pilot qualification certification system cannot meet its requirements. It is imperative to establish a pilot training system for the special design and operation characteristics of eVTOL aircraft.

In response to this problem, He Xiaopeng also submitted the "Proposal on Accelerating the Construction of the Pilot Qualification Certification and Management System for eVTOL Aircraft" during the Two Sessions this year, suggesting that relevant research be carried out as soon as possible to supplement and improve the existing regulations and procedures related to pilot management and make preliminary preparations for the safe and smooth operation of aircraft.

Secondly, there are still technical shortcomings in battery, motor, and communication stability.

The energy density and cycle life of batteries still do not meet the requirements. The energy density of mainstream lithium - ion batteries is only between 200 - 300Wh/kg, while the basic threshold for the energy density required for the commercial operation of eVTOL is 400Wh/kg or even higher. The energy density of aviation fuel is as high as 12,000 - 13,000Wh/kg. In comparison, lithium - ion batteries have a huge gap in energy density.

This results in that when storing the same amount of energy, the weight of lithium - ion batteries is much greater than that of aviation fuel, greatly limiting the load and range of eVTOL.

For frequently used eVTOL, the battery cycle life is directly related to the operating cost. It is estimated that an eVTOL that flies 8 times a day may need to replace the battery 14 times within its 20 - year service life, assuming that each battery pack has a cycle life of 1,000 cycles.

The power density of motors needs to be improved. When the motor is under continuous high load (such as during vertical takeoff and landing), the winding temperature can reach over 180°C. The temperature resistance limit of existing insulating materials (such as mica tape) is only 200°C, resulting in accelerated insulation aging and a high risk of thermal runaway.

In addition, there are also shortcomings in communication stability in the low - altitude environment and multi - aircraft collaborative scheduling algorithms. Moreover, the low - altitude safety guarantee technology is still immature. How to prevent aircraft collisions, resist electromagnetic interference, and ensure safe operation in extreme weather is still a difficult problem that the industry urgently needs to solve.

Thirdly, the infrastructure is backward, and the coverage of takeoff and landing sites and charging and battery - swapping networks is insufficient.

Vertical takeoff and landing sites are the core infrastructure for the large - scale operation of the low - altitude economy, but the current construction progress seriously lags behind the demand. Pilot cities such as Shenzhen plan to build 1,200 takeoff and landing points by 2026, but the actual number of completed points is scarce, and most of them are concentrated in closed scenarios such as tourist attractions. There is a lack of layout in urban core areas, transportation hubs, and logistics nodes. The density of general airports and takeoff and landing points in remote areas and areas with rapid low - altitude economic development (such as the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta) is even lower, limiting the usage range of aircraft. In addition, the existing airports have poor compatibility for renovation and cannot meet the special needs of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, such as charging and maintenance.

In addition, the charging and battery - swapping network is not perfect. Currently, the energy supply for low - altitude aircraft mainly relies on fixed charging stations, but the coverage density is far lower than the demand. The range anxiety of logistics drones in remote areas is particularly prominent. Some enterprises have tried to use mobile charging