The iPhone, which has sold 3 billion units, won't be easily killed.

In an era when everyone wants to kill the iPhone, it's selling better than ever.

Recently, Apple released its financial report for the third quarter, and the results were remarkable, achieving the largest revenue increase since December 2021.

Among the series of figures in the financial report, there is a milestone: more than 3 billion iPhones have been sold, which could equip nearly half of the world's population.

Moreover, the sales speed of the iPhone is getting faster and faster: the iPhone was launched in 2007, and it took nine years to reach 1 billion units in 2016, five years to reach 2 billion units in 2021, and only four years to reach 3 billion units.

Since the last decade, especially in recent years when generative AI has been booming, more and more cutting - edge products have emerged, with the ambition to "kill" the iPhone.

But I believe that the iPhone will still have a place in our future and sell the next 1 billion units.

The iPhone is more than just a communication device

According to the financial report, Apple's total revenue last quarter was $94.04 billion, of which the iPhone accounted for $44.58 billion, more than twice the sum of all other products. It remains the cornerstone of Apple.

Source: App Economy Insights

Apple is well aware that the iPhone will continue to shine but not forever. Generative artificial intelligence and mixed - reality technology have infinite potential and are likely to give rise to new products that completely disrupt smartphones within a few years.

Even Apple veteran Eddy Cue is getting a bit restless:

It's not easy being the incumbent... We're not an oil company, and we're not toothpaste — these things will always exist... You may not need an iPhone in 10 years.

Although the iPhone, or smartphones in general, are not like toothpaste, at present, we really haven't seen any emerging product form that can truly kill the iPhone.

Smartwatches a decade ago couldn't do it, and neither can the AI + AR smart glasses that Apple has high hopes for.

Meta Orion glasses, a prototype of AR + AI glasses

Even Apple's continuous lag in AI hasn't affected the iPhone's sales.

Smart glasses are indeed a terminal form with great potential. They can see what you see and hear what you hear. They are a more ideal AI intermediary than a smartphone.

Meta Orion demonstration screen, source: The Verge

AR or XR mixed - reality technology can break through the limitations of the smartphone screen in display and interaction and enable the real world to become an object of intelligent interaction.

Meta Orion demonstration screen

Whether it's social communication, information acquisition, or content consumption, smart glasses can be a more powerful device than smartphones. You don't have to take them out of your pocket, and your hands can be freed.

If the iPhone had remained in the form of an "iPod + phone + web browser" as Steve Jobs introduced it back then, it wouldn't be unfair for it to be replaced by glasses. But when we turn the phone over, that large camera provides new possibilities for the iPhone.

Source: CNET

Today's smartphones have become a "creative tool." Not only the iPhone, but many domestic flagship phones also focus on imaging. The large camera module allows ordinary users to take excellent photos and videos and even approach the level of professional creation: the iPhone can shoot music videos, and vivo can shoot short films.

Moreover, a series of features such as the new recording - studio mixing function, the new camera button on the iPhone 16 Pro, and the rumored "Master Camera" also reflect Apple's intention to further turn the iPhone into a more professional and integrated creative tool.

The form of glasses means that they can't take pictures from as many free and diverse angles and viewpoints as smartphones.

Not even to mention the "professional creation" scenario, simple selfies are impossible with smart glasses.

Ray - Ban Meta is currently the top - of - the - line smart glasses, and its camera quality is equivalent to that of the iPhone 11.

Moreover, since glasses are designed to be lightweight and portable, it's impossible to fit three or more lens modules in them.

One of the important reasons why the iPhone has become a smart - terminal model that has swept the world and dominated for more than a decade is its highly composite device form. It's not only a phone but also a handheld computer, a digital camera, and an MP3 player.

Because of this versatility, personal computers were soon "doomed" after the birth of the iPhone.

But even now, computers are still doing well because they are still irreplaceable in some more professional scenarios.

Since the iPhone couldn't kill computers, glasses can't send the iPhone to the grave either.

After all, we've spent a decade trying to fit more portable items into our phones. There's no reason to put things like mirrorless cameras and bus cards back into our backpacks in the next decade, right?

Often, it's enough to bring just one phone when going out. Source: MakeUseOf

What will the iPhone become?

Of course, smartphones are definitely not the end of our smart - terminal forms. The increasingly unoriginal iPhone is a microcosm of the approaching end of the grand narrative of smartphones.

But human creativity and innovation won't stop. Technologies such as AI and XR are setting off a new technological wave, a driving force as powerful as the Internet, which will ultimately change the way we interact with terminals.

Apple itself has done a lot of things to completely eliminate a familiar device form.

Compared with CD walkmans, the sound quality of the iPod was a big step back, so it wasn't favored by audiophiles. But due to its unparalleled convenience, the iPod became the real mainstream.

Similar situations have also occurred when the iPhone replaced the iPod and streaming Apple Music replaced the downloadable iTunes.

There are many such examples. From them, we can see that people actually care less about experience and prioritize convenience more.

This is easy to understand. A good product should make people more free. The smart glasses we're looking forward to are a more free product than phones, bringing more possibilities and pointing to a future where smartphones are struggling — AI and XR.

Project Aura, Google's AI + AR glasses project

ifanr has always believed that smart glasses have the potential to become the next - generation personal computing terminals.

But becoming the next iPhone doesn't mean the previous iPhone will end. They can coexist.

For some time, we'll carry a smartphone in our pocket and wear a pair of smart glasses on our face. The latter, as an accessory, will work with the phone to provide a better experience.

As the technological wave continues to advance, smart glasses or other AI devices will truly mature, be able to independently meet the most daily needs of most people, and become a better perception interface and AI intermediary than phones.

Meta Orion, source: The Verge

By then, the iPhone will be like a personal computer, continuing to shine in areas where glasses can't reach, and will probably be in a foldable form, but not in everyone's hands.

The rumored foldable iPhone to be launched next year

Therefore, I believe that the 4 billionth iPhone will be sold within five years, but it's very likely that we won't see the 10 billionth iPhone anytime soon, or maybe never.

Text | Su Weihong

This article is from the WeChat official account "ifanr" (ID: ifanr). The author is someone who discovers tomorrow's products. 36Kr has published it with authorization.