From the vehicle cabin to the metaverse: The "bright" - year evolution of China's LED industry
When Samsung launched its first 0.3mm seamless splicing Micro LED giant-screen TV at the 2025 Global Consumer Electronics Show, it was not just a gimmick for hardware iteration. It also signaled that the display technology field is accelerating its transformation from traditional lighting tools into the core carrier of intelligent interaction.
Today, the glory of the LED industry no longer solely stems from its position as the global production capacity leader. Instead, it has shifted towards an industrial leap driven by Mini/Micro LED: The "price war quagmire" of homogeneous competition in the past is being reshaped by technological revolution into a multi-dimensional value ecosystem covering consumer electronics, smart cars, and the metaverse entrance. From the interactive lighting language in smart cockpits to the immersive giant screens in virtual shooting, and then to the "light formula" for precise crop regulation, the application boundaries of LED are expanding at an unprecedented speed, driving the industry to open up a "second growth curve".
The structural breakthrough and technological iteration of the LED industry are not only about the outcome of the competition for display hegemony. They are also redefining the strategic value of "light" as a future information carrier. When technological leaps meet scenario fission, whether the Chinese industrial chain can break through the high-end bottleneck and control the ecological discourse power has become a key observation window for the global intelligent manufacturing upgrade. This article will focus on:
Core contradiction: The dilemma of technological dependence and low-end overcapacity under the halo of the "production capacity leader"
Breakthrough engine: How the technological iteration of Mini/Micro LED can leverage the increment of diversified applications
Upgrade path: The path for industrial upgrade and breakthrough under opportunities and challenges
Value anchor: The investment map under high-certainty demand and policy coordination
The window period from "scale leadership" to "value reshaping" is narrowing. Only by grasping the breakthrough logic of the trinity of "technological breakthrough - scenario binding - global competition and cooperation" can one seize the high ground in this dimension-upgrading battle of the optoelectronic industry.
Current situation: The glory and hidden concerns of the global production capacity leader
(I) Domestic panels have become the global production capacity leader
The Chinese LED industry has now become an undisputed core force in the global supply chain. By 2025, it is estimated that 70% of the world's total display panel production will come from Chinese manufacturing. That means for every 10 display panels produced globally, 7 will come from Chinese production bases.
In the smartphone field, this dominance is even more prominent. The market share of mainland Chinese panel manufacturers has climbed to 68.8% and is expected to exceed the 70% mark in 2025. In the LCD TV panel field, Chinese manufacturing also shows strong strength. In the first quarter of 2025, the global shipment volume reached 63 million units, and just three Chinese companies, BOE, CSOT, and HKC, together accounted for more than 60% of the market share. The industrial scale data is also shocking - in 2024, the market scale of the Chinese display panel industry reached 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for half of the global market.
(II) Structural challenges under the global production capacity leadership
However, behind this glorious report card, the Chinese LED industry is facing unprecedented structural challenges. The industry presents an obvious "polarized" pattern: On the one hand, low-end LED products with a large market share are deeply trapped in the price war quagmire, and the output value of general lighting has declined by 4.2% year-on-year. On the other hand, high-end fields such as Mini/Micro LED and smart lighting maintain a high gross profit margin of 35% - 40%. The Chinese LED industry has reached a critical crossroads - the old model of scale expansion has encountered bottlenecks, and "big but not strong, prosperous but in need of change" has become the most realistic portrayal at present.
1. Overcapacity in the mid - and low - end: A structural crisis behind the prosperity
Behind the glory of the Chinese LED industry, there lurks a serious crisis of overcapacity in the mid - and low - end. Data in 2024 showed that the industry's capacity utilization rate was only 65%, with prominent structural contradictions. The situation was even more severe for small and medium - sized enterprises, with the capacity utilization rate generally less than 50%, and the inventory cycle extended to 45 days, far exceeding the healthy level. Overcapacity directly led to a fierce price war. Some enterprises even sold products below the cost price to survive, and the industry's profit margin was continuously compressed.
The root causes of this dilemma lie in low industrial concentration and homogeneous competition. The Chinese LED industry presents a "scattered and disorderly" pattern: More than 5,000 enterprises are concentrated in an industrial scale of less than 200 billion yuan. The vast majority are clustered in the mid - and low - end fields such as packaging and application, lacking core upstream technologies and with serious product homogenization. An industry insider once admitted: "95% of the domestic LED lighting market depends on government orders", and such orders are often affected by local protectionism, further distorting market competition.
Vicious cycle of price war: The prices of products in traditional fields such as general lighting continue to decline. Some LED lighting products are already close to the price of energy - saving lamps. Although it has accelerated market substitution, the corporate profits have been extremely compressed, seriously restricting R & D investment.
Dependence on exports of low - end production capacity: To digest the production capacity, enterprises have turned to exports, mainly targeting price - sensitive markets such as Southeast Asia and India. In the high - end markets of Europe and America with strict requirements, the share of Chinese LED products has been continuously declining. For example, the United States requires LED displays to operate stably for more than 5 years under extreme temperature differences, and many Chinese enterprises currently cannot meet this standard.
VCB Capital believes that what is even more worrying is that this structural crisis has formed a vicious cycle: Low profits restrict R & D investment, and the lack of technological breakthroughs hinders enterprises from entering the high - end market, forcing them to continue to fight in the red ocean. Industry observers pointed out: "The industry generally believes that at least half of the companies will be eliminated in the reshuffle next year." Industrial structure adjustment is no longer a development issue but a survival issue.
2. Dependence on high - end fields: Bottlenecks in core materials and technologies
In sharp contrast to the overcapacity in the mid - and low - end, the Chinese LED industry has significant external dependence in high - end fields. Data shows that the import dependence of high - end LED products is as high as 25%, and the localization rate of high - end optical modules is less than 15%. This dependence is mainly reflected in two key areas:
① Restricted by others in core materials and equipment
The independence of key upstream materials and high - end equipment in the industrial chain is still insufficient. Take the substrate glass, which accounts for 20% of the panel raw material cost, as an example. This core material has long been monopolized by international giants such as Corning in the United States and Asahi Glass in Japan. Although China's panel manufacturing capacity accounts for 70% of the global total, the localization rate of substrate glass, as the physical carrier and technological lifeline, is still at a low level.
The Micro - LED field also faces challenges. Key equipment such as mass transfer equipment and MOCVD epitaxial equipment mainly rely on imports. Among them, mass transfer technology is the core bottleneck for industrialization, and the accuracy and efficiency of the equipment directly determine the feasibility of mass production. Although Chinese enterprises such as Cension Display have made breakthroughs in laser transfer equipment (with a three - fold increase in efficiency), there is still a gap with the international top - level in the field of ultra - high - precision equipment. In addition, core raw materials such as specific phosphor materials and semiconductor photoresists are also highly dependent on imports, posing risks to the industrial chain's security.
② Insufficient patent layout for cutting - edge technologies
In cutting - edge technology fields such as Micro - LED full - colorization and efficient driving, China's core patent reserves are relatively weak. Although there have been technological progress such as Sanan Optoelectronics (with the yield of 6 - inch Micro LED wafers exceeding 70%) and the Hubei Optics Valley Laboratory and Huazhong University of Science and Technology (high - performance quantum dot photoresist), key links such as the mass production of full - color micro - displays still need to be broken through.
The lack of discourse power in technological standards cannot be ignored. Currently, the technological route of Micro - LED has not been unified, and international giants are seizing the leading position in standards through patent layout.
Breakthrough: Mini/Micro LED leads technological leap and industrial chain reshaping
Standing at the position of the global production capacity leader, despite the severe challenges, the Chinese LED industry is undergoing a historic transformation from "following" to "running side by side" and even "leading". The core driving force comes from the dual - track breakthroughs of Mini LED backlight and Micro LED direct - display technology. These two technological directions not only represent the upgrade path of the display industry but also form a stepped development pattern in three dimensions: technological complexity, industrial chain collaboration, and market application. By deeply analyzing the interactive relationship between technological iteration and industrial chain reshaping, we can clearly see the new competitive advantages that the Chinese new - display industry is building.
(I) Mini LED backlight: The core engine of industrial growth
With its excellent balance between performance and cost, Mini LED backlight technology was the first to cross the industrialization threshold and has become the strongest driving force for the current growth of the LED industry. This technology places tens of thousands of tiny LED beads behind the LCD screen as light sources, and then, combined with intelligent zone - dimming algorithms, it significantly improves the display effect. Its technological advantages are mainly reflected in three dimensions:
Breakthrough in display performance: Devices equipped with Mini LED backlight have amazing performances. They can achieve a very high peak brightness (over 1,000 nits), a high contrast ratio of millions, and a very wide color gamut coverage (over 95% of the film - grade color gamut). Samsung's The Frame art TV uses quantum dot Mini LED backlight technology to double the contrast ratio compared with the previous generation. Even in a strong - light environment, it can still maintain the texture of the canvas. Combined with the matte screen display technology, it completely solves the problem of ambient light interference.
Advantage in mass - production cost: Compared with Micro LED, which is still in the early stage of industrialization, Mini LED can be produced on the transformed traditional LED production lines, greatly reducing the equipment investment cost. According to the research data of CITIC Securities, the global market scale of Mini LED backlight modules is expected to grow to 1.56 billion yuan by 2028. Among them, Mini LED backlight TVs will become the largest sub - market, with a scale of about 900 million yuan, accounting for 58%.
Expansion of application scenarios: Mini LED backlight is rapidly expanding from high - end TVs to more fields. High - end laptops use it to achieve professional HDR display effects in a thinner body. In car cockpits, dashboards, and rear - seat entertainment systems, it is favored for its high - temperature resistance and long service life. The demand for display in commercial large screens and command and control centers has also increased significantly, with a considerable increase in shipment volume. Even in future AR/VR devices, it is expected to become the key backlight solution to enhance the visual experience, helping to create a more immersive virtual world entrance.
(II) Micro LED: Industrialization breakthrough and the ultimate display path
Micro LED is recognized as the ultimate direction of display technology. Its core advantages lie in its characteristics of self - illumination, high efficiency, and long service life. Different from Mini LED, the chip size of Micro LED is less than 50 microns. Through mass transfer technology, millions or even tens of millions of micron - level LED chips are directly integrated onto the driving substrate, without the need for a liquid crystal layer and a backlight module. Since 2025, China has made a series of breakthroughs in the key links of Micro LED industrialization:
Systematic breakthroughs in technological bottlenecks:
Mass transfer technology: In 2025, Chinese enterprises made significant breakthroughs in laser transfer technology. The transfer efficiency increased by 300%, and the number of chips transferred per hour by a single device exceeded 150 million. At the same time, the transfer yield rate exceeded 99.995%. This breakthrough removed the key obstacle for Micro LED to enter the consumer electronics market;
Full - colorization solution: The mainstream method is to use blue - light Micro LED to excite quantum dot materials to achieve full - color, improving the efficiency (light efficiency increased by more than 1