A $30-trillion empire: Musk outlines Tesla's "endgame" – the core lies in humanoid robots and AI, not cars.

What is the ultimate outcome for Tesla? In the view of CEO Elon Musk, the answer might be a business empire worth up to $30 trillion, with its core being humanoid robots and AI, rather than cars.

On July 27th local time, Musk virtually attended a Tesla fan event called "X Takeover". During this interview, he clearly stated that if Tesla can successfully execute its grand plans in the fields of the humanoid robot "Optimus" and autonomous driving (Robotaxi), the company's valuation could reach between $25 trillion and $30 trillion, a figure 20 to 30 times its current market value.

This statement is Musk's clearest and boldest prediction to date regarding the long - term value of his company, aiming to shift investors' attention from short - term car delivery data and profit margins to a distant but highly imaginative future driven by disruptive technologies.

The cornerstone of this crazy valuation is the "world's largest product" in Musk's eyes - the Optimus robot. He predicts that the global demand for such robots could be as high as tens of billions, and boldly speculates that if mass - produced, this business could generate an annual revenue of up to $30 trillion. This would not only reshape the global labor market but also dwarf Tesla's car business.

What supports this vision is Tesla's core capabilities accumulated in the fields of artificial intelligence, energy, and advanced manufacturing. Musk describes the rapid development of AI as a "supersonic tsunami". It is not only the brain of autonomous driving and robots but also will bring about a disruptive increase in productivity. Meanwhile, Neuralink's brain - computer interface technology and SpaceX's Starship project together form the ultimate puzzle for reshaping humanity's future and moving towards a multi - planetary civilization.

Recently, there have been some verifiable actions related to Musk's grand vision. According to recent media reports, to support the training of AI models such as Grok, xAI is advancing a debt financing of up to $12 billion for purchasing chips and building data centers. At the same time, Tesla's energy business is becoming a key growth point. In 2024, the energy storage deployment is expected to reach 31.4 GWh, with a revenue of about $10.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 67%, and a gross profit margin of over 26%.

However, there are still many questions about whether Musk's highly imaginative and crazy blueprint can ultimately be realized and whether it can withstand the tests of reality and time.

The following are the key points of the interview:

Tesla's ultimate valuation: Musk agrees and reiterates the view that Tesla's valuation could reach between $25 trillion and $30 trillion after successfully executing the autonomous driving and Optimus robot projects.

Optimus robot: It is regarded as Tesla's most ambitious product ever, with a potential market size of billions of units. Musk envisions that if 1 billion units are produced annually, it could generate an annual revenue of up to $30 trillion, and its transformative power will surpass that of Full Self - Driving (FSD).

Autonomous driving (Robotaxi): Tesla will operate a hybrid - mode autonomous driving fleet, with some vehicles owned by Tesla and some joined by owners themselves, similar to the "Uber + Airbnb" model.

Artificial intelligence (AI): Musk describes the progress of AI as a "supersonic tsunami", believing that it will bring great prosperity but also pose profound challenges regarding AI safety and the meaning of human existence.

Starship: Its core goal is to achieve complete and rapid reusability to significantly reduce the cost of space transportation. The ultimate goal is to make humanity a multi - planetary species and provide a backup for "consciousness".

Brain - computer interface (Neuralink): The short - term goal is to solve serious medical problems such as paralysis and blindness; the long - term vision is to achieve human - machine symbiosis, greatly enhance human intelligence through technologies such as "conceptual telepathy", and possibly even provide a form of "immortality".

Technological synergy: The Optimus robot will reuse Tesla's autonomous driving AI computer and battery technology, reflecting the company's synergy in computing power, energy, and manufacturing.

Long - term challenges: Musk believes that in the future when AI and robots are widespread, the biggest challenge for humanity may be "finding the meaning of life".

The "Trillion - Dollar" Vision for Optimus

During the interview, Musk positioned the Optimus humanoid robot as Tesla's "greatest product" to date, even more important than the company's car business and Full Self - Driving (FSD) technology. He believes that the potential market demand for Optimus could be "20 billion or even 50 billion units".

He made a bold calculation: assuming that Tesla can mass - produce 1 billion Optimus robots annually in the future, and the cost of each unit drops to about $3,000, then this single business could generate an annual revenue of up to $30 trillion.

Based on this assumption, Musk publicly agreed with the analysis by Cathy Wood, the founder of ARK Invest, and others, suggesting that Tesla's valuation could reach $25 trillion.

Musk revealed that the Optimus robot is undergoing a major redesign, and they will directly develop a more powerful third - generation version, with plans to start mass production next year. Its initial application scenarios will focus on high - value areas, such as providing 24 - hour care for quadriplegics or replacing humans in dangerous environments.

Computing Power is the "Ticket" for AI

In Musk's vision, AI is the core brain driving robots and autonomous driving, and he compares its development speed to a "supersonic tsunami". To lead in this race, ensuring sufficient computing power has become a prerequisite.

According to media reports, Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI is advancing a debt financing of up to $12 billion, mainly for purchasing NVIDIA chips and building a new - generation data center. This move aims to provide strong computing power support for the training and inference of its AI model Grok.

However, he also admits that this future faces profound philosophical challenges. When robots can do any job better than humans, "how humans find the meaning of life" will become the biggest problem. Therefore, he emphasizes that AI safety is crucial, and it is necessary to ensure that the development of AI is in line with the collective will of humanity.

The Energy Business Becomes a Key Growth Pole

Under the grand vision, Tesla's energy business is becoming an increasingly solid performance support. According to the company's disclosed data, Tesla expects to achieve an energy storage deployment of 31.4 GWh in 2024. The revenue from energy generation and storage business is expected to reach about $10.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of up to 67%, and the gross profit margin will also remain at a healthy level of over 26%.

The company's management clearly stated in the earnings conference: "The energy business is more critical than ever." The strong growth of this business segment not only provides Tesla with considerable cash flow but also forms an important part of its future ecosystem - a world driven by clean energy, including autonomous driving fleets and robots.

The "Uber + Airbnb" Model for Autonomous Driving

Regarding the highly - anticipated autonomous taxi (Robotaxi) business, Musk elaborated on the concept of its business model. He said that the future autonomous driving fleet will adopt a mixed - ownership model, that is, "partly owned by Tesla and partly owned by customers".

This model is similar to the combination of the ride - hailing platform Uber and the short - term rental platform Airbnb. Tesla will directly operate a part of the fleet, while allowing Tesla owners to add their private cars to the network when idle, providing services and earning income.

He also revealed that the two - seat "Cyber cab" designed specifically for Robotaxi will coexist with the existing Model 3 and Model Y to meet the needs of different numbers of passengers.

The following is the full text of the interview, translated by an AI tool:

Host 1: First of all, Elon, thank you for participating in the "X Takeover" (formerly "Tesla Takeover") event for the second consecutive year. You're welcome. Let's get started. Let's start with your passion project - the Starship. The Starship is the most ambitious rocket ever built. What aspects have been more difficult than expected? What's the next milestone we should be looking out for?

Elon Musk: Well, I've always expected everything to be difficult. So it's not like I thought it would be easy. Yes, the Starship is a very crazy project on many levels. Because the thrust of its future version will be three times that of the Saturn V moon - landing rocket, which was previously the largest rocket and the largest aircraft ever. So the Starship's thrust is three times that of the second - largest aircraft in history, about twice its weight, and the goal is to achieve complete and rapid reusability. So I think this is a truly crazy thing and one of the most difficult engineering challenges in existence.

When we first started talking about the Starship, people thought it was impossible. In fact, even within the company, we kind of thought it was impossible. It had a high, what I call the'silly factor'. That is, as soon as you mention this thing, people immediately start giggling, thinking the whole thing is too absurd.

So now, it has gone from... I think what I'm good at is turning things from "impossible" to "just late". That's my thing. It was once impossible, and now it's just late. I encourage anyone interested to go to the Starbase in South Texas. It's like a magical place with giant rockets. I think some of you have been there. Yes, it's very inspiring. Like when I take friends and family there, along a main road, you can get very close to those things and really feel the scale of the rockets and the factory.

It's all very cool. I think the thing that I thought would be the most difficult and is indeed the most difficult at present is to build a fully reusable orbital heat shield, which has never been done before. Previous heat shields were all single - use. Even the heat shield of the Space Shuttle lost a lot of heat tiles on each flight, and the heat shield had to be refurbished between each flight.

So, no one has ever built a fully reusable orbital heat shield. In fact, no one has ever built a fully reusable orbital - class rocket. The Falcon 9 was the first rocket whose booster could be regularly reused and was actually economically viable. So, solving the heat - shield problem, I think, might be the biggest remaining challenge for the Starship. Of course, there's also getting the upper - stage rocket (or the spaceship) to land successfully and be caught by those giant metal chopsticks that look like something out of a science - fiction movie. It looks like an incredible science - fiction movie.

Host 1: Really using chopsticks to catch it.

Elon Musk: Yes, giant metal chopsticks. Catching the largest aircraft ever with metal chopsticks is really crazy. But I hope the spaceship can be successfully recovered this year, but it's safe to say it will be achieved in the first half of next year. Then there will be further improvements to make the spaceship and the booster not only reusable but also fully and quickly reusable, which will actually reduce the cost of each flight.

The cost of the Starship to send payloads into orbit each time will be lower than that of the single - use Falcon 1 rocket. That is, the cost of sending 100 tons or more of payload into orbit will be lower than that of a rocket (the Falcon 1) that can usually only carry half a ton of cargo.

This is because all you have to do is refill the fuel and oxygen in the rocket, rather than build a new rocket. And most of the propellant is actually oxygen, not fuel. Almost 80% is oxygen and 20% is fuel.

After achieving these goals for the spaceship, the next major technical challenge is in - orbit refueling. We actually refuel in orbit, just like in - air refueling, but this is in - orbit refueling. I'm talking about "oxidizer refueling", not "fuel refueling", because most of what is transferred is actually liquid oxygen, not fuel. So for in - orbit refueling, you need to dock two Starships together and transfer the propellant from one to the other. In the future, it will be docking and locking with an in - orbit propellant storage station. Yes, that's the situation.

Host 1: It sounds easy. Just...

Elon Musk: I mean, it's very achievable. There's nothing we're talking about that's unachievable, but it's really tricky.

No other organization is trying to do this. Like, well, who else is trying to do this? In fact, none. So even after all these years, there's still no company reusing boosters. No one has even attempted the level of reusability of the Falcon 9, even though we've proven that it clearly makes a lot of sense.

Because, you can compare the cost of any form of transportation. If you have to throw it away after use, for example, if you have a car and have to throw it away every time you drive somewhere, you'd definitely think it's crazy to throw the car away every time you drive. But that's how rockets work. So it really... Yes, I don't think any driver would accept having to buy a new car every time they drive somewhere and having to tow another car behind for the return journey.

Host 2: Elon, then...

Elon Musk: So, yes.

Host 2: Speaking of impossible things, Elon, what exactly would a self - sufficient city on Mars look like? What would the population size, economic model, and governance be like?

Elon Musk: Well, the governance will be decided by the Martians themselves. However, we have some bold ideas about what a Martian city would look like. To be honest, I'm not entirely sure, except that we know Mars hasn't reached the stage where it can be terraformed to allow you to live outdoors.

So, initially, you have to live in something like a glass dome. You can walk outside in a Mars suit, but you can't walk outside without a Mars suit. Maybe I should explain to those who haven't heard why we're doing this? What's the point of Mars? Shouldn't we just focus on Earth? I'd say, yes, we should focus on Earth.

99% of our efforts should be focused on Earth, but perhaps 1% of our efforts should be used to become a space - faring civilization and a multi - planetary species. Because there are defensive reasons. You know, if something happens to Earth that destroys civilization, it could be World War III or a meteorite like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.

We want to ensure that the faint candle of consciousness that humanity has doesn't go out. So I think it's important to become a multi - planetary species to ensure the long - term survival of consciousness and all life forms on Earth. And, you know, other life forms can't extend themselves to another planet on