The iPhone is forcing the return of eSIM, and its implementation may happen this year.
The implementation of eSIM cards for mobile phones may happen this year.
Whether it was the exposure of the trial iPhone eSIM page by operators in March this year or the successful hosting of the eSIM Summit at MWC Shanghai in June, it seems to indicate that we are not far from the time when Chinese operators will restart the eSIM service.
If we start counting from June 2016 when GSMA announced the release of the eSIM specification, this already quite mature technology has been around for nearly 10 years. Currently, a complete eSIM industrial layout has been formed in the Chinese market, covering major sectors such as chip design and manufacturing, module R & D, platform services, terminal devices, and basic telecommunications operators.
Regrettably, despite having perhaps the most comprehensive industrial system in the world, the eSIM technology has never truly been popularized on smartphone terminals in the Chinese mainland market.
However, after nearly a decade of policy games and market negotiations, eSIM has finally seen the dawn of development this year, and the process of smartphones going card - free is also about to take a big step forward.
Stalled: The Double Game of "Policy + Competition"
Going back to 2018, two years had passed since GSMA released the eSIM specification in 2016. China Unicom was the first to announce the trial commercial operation of the "one - number, dual - terminal" service in six Chinese cities. This was also the first time that Chinese operators launched the eSIM card service in the mainland market.
After about two years of the trial period, the eSIM business witnessed an explosive growth in the domestic market in 2020. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom, three basic telecommunications operators, to successively launch eSIM technology application services for wearable devices and Internet of Things devices across the country, officially setting the standards and tone for the standardized development of eSIM.
However, the eSIM consumer business suddenly hit the pause button in 2023. China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, the three major operators, successively issued announcements that due to "business system maintenance and upgrade", they would suspend accepting applications for the eSIM one - number, dual - terminal service and independent eSIM card applications. New users could not register, and although existing users could continue to use the service, they could not re - apply after cancellation.
This undoubtedly dealt a heavy blow to the booming eSIM consumer business in the Chinese mainland market. According to statistics from the China Merchant Industry Research Institute, as of the end of 2023, the cumulative number of domestic eSIM technology users reached 3.62 million, among which 1.43 million new users were added in 2023 alone.
The eSIM business entered a two - year period of silence in the domestic market, and the related business development came to a standstill. The general consensus in the industry is that the sudden suspension of the eSIM card is directly related to the security risks associated with this technology.
In the early days of eSIM's launch, there were some loopholes in the process specifications and technology. This allowed some criminals to take advantage of OTA loopholes to register eSIM numbers in bulk using false identity information for telecom fraud and mass - sending of spam messages. Some users also converted eSIM cards into physical cards to carry out remote card - making services and exceeded their data usage limits.
However, as a globally mature communication technology and standard, the suspension of the eSIM business may have other deeper - seated reasons - the game among operators.
The eSIM card is a non - physical card. This form of delivery has, to a certain extent, reduced the costs involved in card - making, packaging, logistics, and warehousing in the traditional physical SIM card delivery process for operators. At the same time, the fast - paced nature of eSIM card business handling online has significantly reduced the volume of offline business for operators, thereby lowering the operating costs of offline business.
The reduction in costs, however, has brought greater negative effects to operators: in the process of using eSIM, the connection between users and operators has been weakened.
Previously, the SIM card represented a contractual relationship between the user and a single operator. When a user applied for a SIM card, they were signing a contract with the operator and enjoying services based on the card. However, with the support of eSIM technology, this contractual relationship has been weakened.
Firstly, users only need to scan a QR code to bind themselves to an operator's service, which makes it more convenient to switch networks. As a result, the stickiness between users and operators has decreased, meaning that users are more likely to churn.
Secondly, in the past, users had to go to offline business halls for real - name registration when changing SIM cards or packages. Business halls could promote diversified services offline, including fixed - line broadband, IPTV, contract phones, etc.
Both of these points are unacceptable to operators.
In November 2019, the number portability service was officially launched. Fearing user churn, operators set up numerous obstacles, making number portability very complicated to prevent user outflow to the maximum extent. This logic of maintaining control over users is also reflected in the difficulties of promoting eSIM technology.
Restart: The Reverse Push of "Macro - environment + Terminal Manufacturers"
The three major operators' decision to restart the eSIM business in 2025 is seen by the outside world as a change in line with the trend against the backdrop of the "coming of the AI era".
China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, "Research on the Development Trends of eSIM Technology and Industry (2024)"
Compared with traditional SIM cards, even the currently widely used Nano - SIM cards, the internal space required by eSIM cards is less than 1/10 of theirs. For emerging hardware products in the AI era, such as smart glasses, the popularization of eSIM cards will help these products achieve higher portability and longer battery life.
The realization of this "card - free networking" technology will fundamentally subvert the underlying connection technology logic of terminals in the AI era. With the rise of AI technology, services require ubiquitous cellular network support. After eSIM is embedded in terminals, it can achieve "ready - to - use upon purchase", becoming a necessary component for serving AI and promoting its entry into a period of rapid growth.
Chen Fengwei, the deputy general manager of China Unicom Huasheng Communications Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the media at the Shanghai MWC in June: "In the Internet era, losing network connection means losing contact; in the AI era, losing network connection means losing intelligence."
He believes that eSIM is a must - have option for highly mobile AI terminals, such as smart glasses and smart rings. In the AI era, the rigid demand for network connection is stronger than at any previous time, which also provides strong demand support for operators to restart the eSIM business.
The exposed iPhone 17 Air model does not have a SIM card slot (Image source: Majin Bu)
On the other hand, the trend of thinner and lighter smartphone designs is also promoting the expansion and popularization of the eSIM business. In September this year, Apple will launch a brand - new product, the iPhone 17 Air. Judging from the currently exposed model information, it will feature an unprecedentedly thin design, with the thinnest part of the body being only 5.5 mm. The price for this breakthrough design is the removal of the physical SIM card slot.
Apple has always been a promoter of eSIM technology. As early as 2011, Apple applied for a virtual SIM card patent with the United States Patent and Trademark Office. In the past two years, Apple has launched SIM - free iPhones 14 in countries and regions including the United States, Canada, and Australia, and this practice has continued to the present.
The demand from terminal manufacturers will undoubtedly play a crucial role in the restart of eSIM. Once the trend of smartphones going card - free becomes irreversible, the operator that can quickly support eSIM for smartphones may gain an edge over its competitors in the consumer market.
The exposed iPhone eSIM application page of China Unicom in March
Judging from the currently exposed situation, China Unicom seems to have prepared for the access of iPhone eSIM. The "leaked" iPhone eSIM application page in March basically confirms that Unicom will pave the last - mile technical path for the official sale of the iPhone 17 Air in September.
China Mobile is also actively following up. According to the description of China Mobile customer service, China Mobile has gradually opened eSIM business support across the country and is optimizing the corresponding systems and preparing resources.
Among the three major operators, China Telecom is the slowest. Since China Telecom's Tiantong satellite communication business requires authentication based on physical SIM cards, the progress of eSIM card implementation is slower than that of the other two operators.
In fact, before this year, China's three major operators had never been involved in the eSIM mobile phone business. On the one hand, it was affected by information security policies. On the other hand, factors such as the weak demand for card - free solutions from smart terminals, low enthusiasm from operators, and the prevention of user outflow restricted the development of eSIM technology for mobile phones.
In addition to Apple, manufacturers including Huawei, OPPO, and Xiaomi all plan to launch ultra - thin products this year or in the first half of 2026. The revolution in card - free product design driven by OEM manufacturers has accelerated the process of operators restarting the eSIM business.
Implementation: Issues such as Policy, Market, and Terminals Need to Be Resolved Urgently
The restart of eSIM will definitely not be smooth sailing. How to manage and control eSIM will become a key issue in its future promotion in the Chinese mainland.
The current cooperation model between iPad and China Unicom is very likely to become a standard case for widespread promotion after the launch of mobile phone eSIM, namely:
Only domestic devices that have obtained certification from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology can activate the eSIM virtual card service of domestic operators. Overseas - version devices cannot use the eSIM services provided by domestic operators in the mainland market;
The eSIM will be forcibly bound to the location. When the network service location is outside China, the overseas eSIM service can be activated;
The physical SIM card and the eSIM card will coexist for a long time.
At the initial stage of eSIM's launch, operators may use the "trial period" to launch independent 5G exclusive packages. On the one hand, this will increase the number of active 5G users. On the other hand, users will be forced to stay in the contract until its end.
Taking the iPad eSIM data packages launched by China Unicom as an example, there are two forms: annual and monthly packages.
The annual packages are handled as independent packages. The data within the package is valid for one year, and the out - of - package fee is 1 yuan/GB within the validity period.
100 yuan/year: 80GB of data per year in the package
300 yuan/year: 300GB of data per year in the package
500 yuan/year: 500GB of data per year in the package
Out - of - package fee: 1 yuan for 1GB of national data per day.
The monthly packages are handled as secondary cards. The data within the package is exclusive to the secondary card. After the data is used up, it will share the data in the primary card.
10 yuan/month: No data included
30 yuan/month: 15GB of data per month
50 yuan/month: 30GB of data per month
80 yuan/month: 50GB of data per month
Out - of - package fee: The out - of - package fee of the primary card package will be applied (except for special products).
After mobile phones implement eSIM, issues such as terminal diversity, product pricing, and the rationality of operator packages will become decisive factors for users to choose eSIM.
However, judging from the current trend, the process of going card - free is developing in a positive direction, and the global popularization of eSIM will become an irresistible trend.
The European Union has clearly stated that it will gradually phase out physical SIM card slots in smartphones starting in 2026. Major mainstream operators in the United States are also vigorously promoting the popularization of eSIM.
According to GSMA Intelligence's prediction, by the end of 2025, there will be approximately 1 billion eSIM smartphone connections globally, and this number will grow to 6.9 billion by 2030. China will become a new market for the rapid growth of eSIM.
Now that the three major operators have restarted the eSIM business, it proves that the policy issues have been effectively resolved. Coupled with the mature technology, the change in the data connection logic in the AI era, and the active layout of the entire industrial chain, the breakthrough of eSIM in China may really just be a matter of time.
This article is from "Tencent Technology", author: Mu Mu, editors: Su Yang and Ke Jun. Republished by 36Kr with permission.