A 25-year outlook on China's future and technological trends
I believe that China will be one of the most powerful forces in the world in the future. This belief is based on my decades of travels in China, where I have visited its most remote areas and its most futuristic cities, as well as my travels in other parts of the world. There is no doubt that China's future will have a huge impact on the world. However, it is difficult for us to make a definite judgment on the future direction of China, which greatly reduces the certainty of China's future influence. In addition, there is also great uncertainty about where technology will take us. My long - term work experience at the forefront of technology makes me convinced that in the near future, artificial intelligence and related technologies will also become the main forces shaping global society. I am sure that these powerful forces will have a huge impact, but they are so complex that it is almost impossible for us to predict their exact paths.
From the development and changes in the past 25 years, we can clearly see that we are rushing towards the future at full speed. We should not charge forward blindly. Any hint about where we are going and what will happen will be of great help in optimizing our future and even for our survival. Although we cannot accurately predict the future, we can reveal its general path and approximate direction by studying large - scale and long - term trends. These major trends are not precise and not absolutely reliable, but they are like rivers meandering randomly in the valley, which can provide us with some guidance on the direction of the whole river. It can be said that they are the first tools to help us understand the future direction. In this book, we will explore some major trends that run through technology, modern society, especially China's development.
The second tool to help us understand the future direction is to build future scenarios. A scenario here is a detailed enough description of an imagined future to make it seem more reasonable. In the standard scenario - building method, you need to generate multiple scenarios, each with a slightly different perspective, covering as many different possibilities or possible futures as possible. The purpose of scenario building is not to predict a specific future, but to rehearse for possible futures so that we won't be surprised by the future. If a scenario we build today turns out to be true later, we will feel familiar when the imagination comes true. This will make it easier for us to deal with the events that occur at that time because we have foreseen the consequences in our imagination.
In this book, I focus on the method of building optimistic scenarios. Instead of considering the numerous possible scenarios of civilization collapse, self - destruction in war, or decline due to our own indulgence, I focus on describing the future scenarios in which I want to be. This does not mean that I am depicting a magical utopia without poverty, harm, pain, and where everything runs perfectly and has no real possibility. What I present is a completely reasonable future in the near future. These scenarios will bring us new problems and new benefits. They are not perfect, but generally ideal and more desirable than the present.
Some critics think that the optimistic scenarios about the future I build are blind, naive, wishful - thinking, and even dangerous and misleading because they ignore the existing major problems. But in my opinion, an optimistic vision of the future is crucial for creating a better world. Modern life is so complex, with various factors interrelated and millions of variables, so a truly wonderful world will not appear accidentally or inadvertently. The kind of future we want to be in must first be imagined so that we can strive towards it. We must see it in our minds and believe that we can build it before we can start building it. We cannot suddenly break into a grand, well - functioning complex world without prior imagination, just as you cannot build a powerful and complex machine without a plan and a sketch. In order to create a high - tech world we want to live in and to build a China that people yearn to live in, we must first imagine them in detail. This is the reason for scenario building in this book.
In this book, I try to imagine a high - tech society driven by technology and creativity, which includes artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, data collection... This is a world where I want to live. I also imagine how China will operate in this technological world and the role it may play in this world. I set a time limit of 25 years for my imagination. Twenty - five years is far enough for the emergence of powerful new technologies. As a reference, I can list a small number of things that did not exist 25 years ago: text messages, Bitcoin and blockchain, dating apps, Zoom video conferencing, smartphones and the hundreds of apps they contain, WeChat, streaming video, electric cars, Siri/Alexa voice assistants, artificial meat, Fitbits, smart rings and watches, internet celebrities, YouTube stars, crowdfunding, mRNA vaccines, VR games, CRISPR gene - editing technology, self - driving cars, and of course, AI.
The next 25 years will definitely bring about great changes and innovations. Some innovations are already visible in laboratory or startup business plans, but based on previous experience, I think the most important and influential innovations 25 years from now have not been invented yet. We now have the opportunity to imagine them and thus build the future.
Twenty - five years later, in 2049, it will also be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. This is a very appropriate time point to think about China's future. Twenty - five years is the perfect length of time to outline various possibilities, imagine China's relationship with technological breakthroughs, China's role in the world, and the brand - new future China may create.
Although I often travel in Asia, I live in Silicon Valley. To imagine China's future path, I collaborated with Chen Wu to write this book. Chen Wu was born in Nanjing and was the former editor - in - chief of The Economist Business Review. I met him in 2023 when he interviewed me, and I was impressed by the excellent questions he asked during our conversation. I noticed that he is quick - witted and can imagine multiple and even contradictory futures - which is exactly the ideal partner I need to think about China's future. Chen Wu's rich imagination has played an important role in building future scenarios.
We spent a lot of time together researching the future of technology. We explored how it can unfold in the most optimistic way while remaining as realistic and reasonable as possible. I want to emphasize that most things in the future will remain the same. That is to say, at least 95% of the things in the world will stay as they are. So I have always been very careful not to make overly advanced predictions. In fact, for those familiar with science fiction or some optimistic fantasists, the scenarios in this book may seem mediocre. There is a paradox here. The closer an imagination about the future is to reality, the more unreasonable it sounds. If the scenario you imagine sounds unreasonable, no one will believe it; but if you make it reasonable, it is unlikely to be real. It is still difficult to choose between authenticity and reasonableness, but we can still make an imagination as close to reality as possible.
We had conversations in English, and Chen Wu edited the text in Chinese. Chen Wu also summarized the main points I made and extracted the keywords and key concepts. The following chapters present the ideal scenarios of the world in my mind in the next 25 years and the possible role China may play in it. In the conclusion part, Chen Wu will share what he has learned from the process of writing this book; in the postscript, I will tell what I have learned from this process.
I wrote this book not so that I can publicly boast that I made the right predictions 25 years later. I have admitted that most of what I say here may not actually happen. In my 50 - year association with futurists, I have learned that almost all predictions, including mine, are wrong. What I hope to achieve through this book is to shape the future and make it develop in certain directions. I want to bring hope to readers in China and around the world that we can build and shape a better world than today by first imagining such a world in detail.
At least, I hope that the ideal scenarios I initially conceived can inspire a better future. If you think the future scenarios in this book are undesirable or not good enough, then if it can inspire you to realize a more reasonable, realistic, or ideal future vision, I will also consider this book a great success. Imagining the future and believing that this imagination can become a reality is the only way for us to truly predict the future.
Basic Information
Author: [USA] Kevin Kelly
Compiler: Chen Wu
Content Introduction
This book is a forward - looking book by Kevin Kelly exploring the technological and social development in the next 10,000 days. Taking 2049 as the time node, the book looks forward to how cutting - edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, mirror world, brain - computer interface, and life science will shape the future society, economy, and culture. Through five core concepts (mirror world, AI assistant, mutual visibility, content explosion, human - like intelligence) and ten development fields (AI, digital governance, organizational change, education, medical care, robotics, self - driving, aerospace, life science, brain - computer interface), the book constructs a comprehensive future picture.
The author explores China's role in the global technological competition by building optimistic future scenarios and puts forward the vision of "Cool China", believing that future China will become the global leader in technology and culture through technological innovation and cultural output.
The book also deeply analyzes the future development trends in fields such as education, medical care, and organizational change, puts forward keywords such as "mutual visibility", "customization", and "abundance" to understand the next 25 years, and depicts a future world driven by AI with a high degree of information transparency.
This is not only a book about the future, but also an action guide: by building optimistic future scenarios, it inspires everyone's courage and wisdom to participate in shaping 2049.
Author Introduction
[USA] Kevin Kelly
The founding editor - in - chief of Wired magazine. Before founding Wired, he was the editor and publisher of The Whole Earth Catalog. He is also a contributor to The New York Times, The Economist, Time, Science, etc. He is the author of Out of Control, The Inevitable, What Technology Wants, etc. In 1984, K.K. initiated the first Hackers Conference. K.K. is regarded as the spokesperson and observer of "cyber culture", and some people call him a "technology prophet".
Kevin Kelly is affectionately called K.K. by Chinese readers. His masterpiece Out of Control is hailed as "one of the most important books that have had a huge impact on the Western world this century". He has influenced a generation of Internet people including Steve Jobs.
Chen Wu, former editor - in - chief of The Economist Business Review.