The closure rates of catering businesses from 2024 to 2025 are announced. Which categories are the "hardest-hit areas of failure"?

The store closure rate is a key indicator in the catering industry, providing important decision - making support for entrepreneurs and attracting wide attention from those in the catering business. Recently, the catering big - data research and certification institution NCBD (Catering Handbook) released the 2024 - 2025 China Catering Category Store Closure Rates, covering the store closure rate data of 81 catering sub - categories, including popular categories such as tea drinks, coffee, and hot pot.

Data shows that among the 81 categories, the top four in terms of store closure rate are crayfish, bullfrog, braised chicken in yellow sauce, and spicy hot pot, all exceeding 31%. Among them, the store closure rate of crayfish is as high as 37.2%. The categories with the lowest store closure rates are coffee and Anhui cuisine, at 10.3% and 8.9% respectively. Overall, the average store closure rate in the catering industry from 2024 to 2025 is 22.66%, basically the same as the previous year.

"Disaster Areas of Closures"

The categories that have ranked among the top ten in terms of store closure rate for two consecutive years are: crayfish, bullfrog, spicy hot pot, spicy and fragrant stir - fry, fried skewers, river snail rice noodles, and beef offal.

The store closure rates of these seven categories far exceed the industry average. Taking the 2024 - 2025 data as an example, the lowest is 29.4% (beef offal), and the highest is 37.2% (crayfish).

Among them, crayfish ranked second last year and first this year, with a persistently high store closure rate. Moreover, this year's data is 5 percentage points higher than last year's, indicating that crayfish is not suitable for catering entrepreneurship in the past two years, and entrepreneurs should be extremely cautious.

Analysis shows that the high store closure rate of crayfish is mainly due to: ① The imbalance between supply and demand leads to drastic price fluctuations. Crayfish restaurants are either forced to raise prices and reduce quantities (causing consumer dissatisfaction) or have to engage in price wars (squeezing their own profit margins); ② The peak season for crayfish is only 3 - 4 months, but stores have to bear the annual rent and labor costs, "earning money for a few months to support the store for a whole year"; ③ Consumers are more rational and no longer pay for the "internet celebrity premium", instead focusing more on cost - effectiveness.

The store closure rates of bullfrog and spicy hot pot have increased significantly on the basis of being relatively high last year, with increases of 4.7% and 2.2% respectively. Among them, the number of spicy hot pot stores has decreased by more than 21,000 in the past year. The store closure rate of river snail rice noodles has slightly increased from 30.0% last year to 30.1% this year, and its internet celebrity aura has further faded. Although the store closure rate of fried skewers has decreased, it still remains at a high level of 30.3%.

In addition to the above seven categories, the store closure rates of braised chicken in yellow sauce, mixed rice, skewers, spicy stewed dishes, and light meals are also relatively high. Among them, mixed rice shows certain internet celebrity attributes, and many brands emerge and disappear quickly, failing to escape the market rules.

Categories with a Significant Increase in Store Closure Rate

Among the 81 categories in the statistics, the store closure rates of several categories have increased significantly, including crayfish, bullfrog, braised chicken in yellow sauce, mixed rice, coconut chicken hot pot, and sour soup hot pot, as shown in the figure below.

Although the increases in these categories are relatively large, they need to be analyzed on a case - by - case basis. For categories such as crayfish, bullfrog, braised chicken in yellow sauce, and mixed rice, the store closure rates were already high last year and are even higher this year, which requires entrepreneurs to be cautious. For categories such as coconut chicken hot pot, sour soup hot pot, and Cantonese cuisine, although the increases are obvious (up to 9.5% for coconut chicken hot pot), their store closure rates are returning to the normal industry level from a relatively low state. In fact, after the significant increase, the store closure rates of these three categories are still slightly lower than the industry average this year.

Among the above categories, two are quite typical. One is braised chicken in yellow sauce. On the eve of the 3.15 Consumer Rights Day this year, many franchise stores of Yang Mingyu Braised Chicken were found to have many food safety issues such as "recycling leftover food and selling it to customers" through media undercover investigations. This incident was subsequently supervised by the State Council Food Safety Office, and the deputy mayors of Jinan, Zhengzhou, and Shangqiu were interviewed. This incident has dealt a major blow to the already lackluster braised chicken in yellow sauce market. Not only have consumers "abandoned" braised chicken in yellow sauce, but some franchisees of Yang Mingyu have also started to consider changing brands. The store closure rate of the braised chicken in yellow sauce category has increased from 26.3% last year to 31.5% this year.

The other is sour soup hot pot. Sour soup hot pot became popular in 2023, extremely popular in 2024, and cooled down in 2025, experiencing a complete internet celebrity life cycle. As a niche category with obvious regional characteristics, sour soup hot pot is no longer trendy. However, it will not disappear but will penetrate the market at a normal pace.

Categories with a Decreasing and Low Store Closure Rate

With the criteria of a store closure rate of less than 20% and a decrease of more than 1%, eight categories such as tea drinks, Western cuisine, coffee, and tea restaurants meet the conditions. These are categories with relatively low store closure rates that are still decreasing, as shown in the figure below.

Contrary to what some people think, the store closure rates of the two popular categories of tea drinks and coffee are not only significantly lower than the industry average but also have decreased in the past year. So, are they suitable for entrepreneurship?

No. For these two categories that have gone through the crazy involution, a low store closure rate only indicates that there are few opportunities left in the market for independent entrepreneurs. You can open a store, but there is almost only one way: to join a mature chain brand. In the next few years, as the industry reshuffle deepens, the store closure rates of tea drinks and coffee are expected to continue to decline, while the threshold for entrepreneurs to open successful stores will continue to rise.

The store closure rate of Anhui cuisine has been the lowest for two consecutive years, mainly for two reasons. First, the store closure rates of full - service restaurants are generally low. Among the 81 categories this time, 43 have store closure rates lower than the industry average, and most of them are full - service restaurants. Among the 38 categories with store closure rates higher than the industry average, most are snack and fast - food restaurants. Second, there are not many participants in Anhui cuisine, with only about 17,000 stores nationwide, and the change is not significant.

Categories with a Small Change but High Store Closure Rate

With the criteria of a store closure rate of more than 25% and a change of less than 1%, it can be found that the store closure rates of several categories, although changing little, remain at a high level, including skewers, beef offal, casserole dishes, and hulatang soup, as shown in the figure below.

This type of catering category mainly consists of snack and fast - food restaurants. The low entrepreneurship threshold has attracted countless entrepreneurs, including many novices, increasing the numerator in the store closure rate formula. At the same time, the snack and fast - food field is also a hard - hit area for the chaos of "recruiting apprentices", with serious "cutting leeks" phenomena, which exacerbates the risk of entrepreneurial failure.

Comparison of Store Closure Rates of Hot Pot and Its Sub - categories

The overall store closure rate of the hot pot industry remains at the 20% level, with basically no change. Except for the obvious increase in the store closure rates of coconut chicken hot pot and sour soup hot pot, the changes in the other sub - categories are not significant. Among them, the store closure rate of small hot pots has fallen below the industry average. On the contrary, the store closure rate of pork belly chicken hot pot has increased by 2.1% to 24.2%, being the only one higher than the industry average.

Conclusion

Data shows that the national catering revenue in 2024 was 5,571.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. From January to June 2025, the national catering revenue was 2,748 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%.

The catering market continues to grow, and there are still numerous opportunities for entrepreneurs. Making good use of the key indicator of the store closure rate, entrepreneurs can avoid pitfalls and increase their chances of success.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Catering Handbook", author: Catering Handbook Research Institute. Republished by 36Kr with permission.