Tablets are making a comeback.

In 2024, the global tablet market took a breath amidst the pessimistic forecasts and achieved a year-on-year shipment growth of 9.2% [1].

As a product category that even government subsidies couldn't boost significantly, the tablet market finally rebounded after three years of shrinkage. Unfortunately, the old - time dominant player, Apple, only managed a meager 5.3% growth, lagging behind the overall market. Instead, Huawei and Xiaomi saw steep growth curves and captured most of the incremental market.

The tablet is a new consumer product category defined by Apple and a market dominated by Apple for many years.

For a long time, apart from Samsung, which was struggling alone, various players in the Android camp either abstained from competition or made only half - hearted attempts, turning the tablet market into an unspoken "Stalingrad" in the consumer electronics field.

It wasn't until after 2019 that Huawei and Xiaomi began to invest heavily, and OPPO and VIVO entered the market in a hurry. The seemingly settled market started to show new ripples.

The origin of these undercurrents can be traced back to a product launched in 2012: iPad mini.

Eliminated as Soon as Appeared

The first - generation iPad mini launched by Apple in 2012 was a turning point in the tablet market.

Compared with the contemporary iPad, the iPad mini had varying degrees of reduction in storage capacity, battery life, and screen resolution. The biggest change was that the screen size was reduced from 9.7 inches to 7.9 inches, and the price was $170 cheaper than the iPad.

Three months before the product launch, during the routine information leakage period, Bloomberg made a clear - cut judgment: the iPad mini was the most terrifying nightmare for competitors.

The iPad mini was generally regarded as Tim Cook's corrective move because Steve Jobs himself had long scoffed at small - sized tablets. According to his logic, people who owned tablets probably also had smartphones. Therefore, "shrinking the precious display to make a pocket - sized tablet was obviously wrong."

From the launch of the iPad in 2010 to the debut of the iPad mini in 2012, Apple actually ceded the small - sized tablet market to the Android camp represented by Samsung, Google, and Amazon.

After the launch of the iPad mini, thanks to its cost - effective positioning, it sold 10 million units in the first quarter, almost twice the annual sales of Google's Nexus 7 [2].

In 2013, the iPad mini 2 was launched. Its core components were fully aligned with the new iPad Air product line of the same year, making it the best - selling single tablet model to date [3]. It directly shattered the psychological defenses of all brands in the Android camp and also led to a further downgrade of the iPod touch's status in the company's annual meeting prize list.

The most direct manifestation of the iPad mini's dominant position was that its pricing ($399/2,888 yuan) became an unspoken price anchor in the market.

Although Samsung's 12 - inch high - end Galaxy Tab series priced at $799 has never stopped being updated, in terms of market performance, its positioning was more like a face - saving project to compete with Apple. Instead, the 7/8 - inch Galaxy Tab series, which was similar in positioning to the iPad mini, has never exceeded $399 since 2012.

Around 2014, Xiaomi and Huawei successively entered the tablet market, also targeting the mid - to - low - end segment, with debut prices below 1,500 yuan.

On the one hand, at that time, Apple was at the peak of its power, and its brand appeal was far beyond that of the Android camp. Therefore, in consumers' specific purchasing decisions, it was inevitable to use the iPad mini as a reference for comparison.

For the Android camp, a more realistic problem was the sacrifice of profit margins.

The first - generation iPad mini used the A5 chip carried by the iPad 2 a year ago, which was self - developed inventory. According to relevant institutional calculations, the cost was only $13. In contrast, the Nvidia Tegra 3 chip of the Nexus 7 cost $25. Coupled with cost - cutting in other aspects and a higher price, the gross profit of the iPad mini was as high as 40% [4], while that of the Nexus 7 was less than 25% [5].

At the same time, the components of tablets and mobile phones are highly interchangeable. A tablet is almost like a mobile phone motherboard with a large battery and a large screen. This poses a real problem for the Android camp: with similar component specifications, the profit of tablets is lower than that of mobile phones.

Due to the existence of this invisible ceiling of $399/2,888 yuan, it was difficult for the Android camp to enjoy the same profit margin as the iPad mini while maintaining the same parameter specifications. If they priced higher than the iPad mini, they were likely to be targeted and eliminated by Apple immediately.

Similar to the iPad mini, the iPhone has long existed as a price anchor for smartphones, but the latter's price is much higher, leaving more pricing and profit space for the Android camp.

Therefore, when the BOM costs were similar, most brands preferred to invest R & D resources in mobile phones and barely maintained the presence of their tablet product lines with low - end positioning.

As a result, the more popular the iPad mini became, the less interested other brands were in tablets. Google, the leader, withdrew in 2014. Domestic manufacturers' product iterations were intermittent. Only Samsung, which both manufactured chips for Apple and sued Apple, went its own way and persisted in the "show - off" behavior of making tablets even if they didn't sell well.

Just when it seemed that the Android camp was losing its spirit, Apple unexpectedly showed mercy.

The Disappearing Shackles

Apple's 2016 product launch was extremely quiet. Apart from a routine update of the 9.7 - inch iPad Pro, there were no new products. The iPad mini was unexpectedly discontinued and fell out of favor.

The real decision - making process within Apple is unknown, but from the market performance, the reason for the discontinuation of the iPad mini was not that it sold poorly, but that it sold too well.

Starting from the iPad mini, Tim Cook, who came from the supply chain, made drastic adjustments to the iPad product line. By the time the iPad mini 4 was launched in 2015, the iPad had been divided into three product lines:

One was the iPad mini, positioned as compact and portable, suitable for mobile scenarios such as gaming and reading;

The second was the iPad Air, positioned as thin and light, targeting light - office users. It appeared as the successor to the iPad in 2013, and correspondingly, the iPad product line stopped being updated from 2013 to 2016.

The third was the iPad Pro, aiming to replace the MacBook and targeting professional and heavy - office scenarios such as video editing and graphic design.

According to Apple's plan, the three product lines of mini/Air/Pro corresponded to three price ranges, with clear usage - scenario positioning and well - arranged pricing spaces, allowing consumers with different needs to choose according to their preferences. However, consumers' reaction to Apple's plan was, "Yeah, right":

According to the calculations of market research institution CIRP [3], in the quarter before the discontinuation of the iPad mini - that is, Q4 2015 - most of the new iPad sales were taken by the iPad mini series, causing the sales share of the iPad mini to increase from 32% to 47%, while the sales of the higher - priced iPad Air declined.

That is to say, for whatever reason, most iPad users still chose the cheapest option. This posed a real problem for Apple: The iPad mini began to squeeze out other product lines and erode the overall profit space of the tablet business.

According to relevant institutional calculations, the unit profit of the iPad mini was about $131 [4]. The early BOM cost of the iPad Air was $274 [6]. With a starting price of $499, the unit profit was $225.

There is a lack of public information on the BOM cost of the early 9.7 - inch iPad Pro, but based on the BOM cost calculation of the 12.9 - inch iPad Pro [7], its gross profit exceeded $500, which was already higher than the selling price of the iPad mini.

Therefore, for Apple, the more iPad Pro/Air it sold, the better. But the reality was that the iPad mini, which had the lowest profit, was selling better and better. Heart - broken, Tim Cook made a difficult decision and let the iPad mini disappear for three consecutive years.

It can be seen that the fate of a tablet is sometimes negatively correlated with its own efforts.

During the three years when the iPad mini was discontinued, it not only saved its high - end sibling products but also removed the shackles that had bound the Android camp for five years.

In 2018, Huawei skipped the fourth - generation M4 of the MediaPad series and directly launched the MediaPad M5. The 10.8 - inch high - end Pro version was priced from 3,488 yuan. In contrast, the previous - generation M3 only had an 8.4 - inch version, with a starting price of 1,888 yuan in China.

At the same time, Xiaomi also launched the first high - end version of the Xiaomi Pad series - the Xiaomi Pad 4 Plus, with a starting price of 1,899 yuan. It seemed that they lacked confidence, but considering that the starting price of the previous - generation Xiaomi Pad 2 was only 999 yuan, the price actually doubled.

As the leader of the Android camp, Google also replaced the cost - effective Nexus brand with the new Pixel brand and re - entered the tablet market. Unfortunately, the sales have been rather mediocre.

As the "go - for - it" mentality spread rapidly, the price range dominated by the iPad mini was gradually filled with Android tablets. From 2015 to 2018, the combined market share of the top 2 - top 5 players below Apple increased from less than 30% [8] to over 40% [9].

With the opening of the pricing space, the Android camp was no longer restricted in controlling the BOM cost, and the performance of tablets began to quickly catch up with that of flagship mobile phones.

In 2017, Samsung launched the Galaxy Tab S3, which was comparable to the iPad Pro. The processor was upgraded from the mid - range Qualcomm Snapdragon 652 of the previous generation to the flagship Snapdragon 820. In 2019, Huawei launched the MediaPad M6, which used the same Kirin 980 chip as its flagship models.

In 2019, the iPad mini, which had been discontinued for four years, was unexpectedly updated. However, compared with the previous generations, which were even tough on their own "family members", the iPad mini 5 seemed more like an attempt to clear component inventory:

The extremely "advanced" 3.5mm headphone jack and the appearance that was no different from the four - year - old iPad mini 4 made every consumer feel a sense of history.

A New War

In 2024, the sales share of the iPad Pro in the total iPad product line reached 38%, while that of the iPad mini was less than 10% [10]. Tim Cook finally solved this problem before his retirement.

During the era of Steve Jobs, tablets were more like enlarged smartphones, located in the "intermediate zone" between mobile phones and laptops. This also explains to some extent the popularity of small - sized tablets like the iPad mini.

The iPad Pro was the beginning of Apple's definition of the iPad as a "productivity tool", and the usage scenarios of tablets began to diverge. In contrast to small - sized tablets, the iPad Pro had the opposite positioning. With a 12.9 - inch large screen, a more expandable Type - C interface, and a weight of 713g, it was more like a laptop.

After 2015, the performance of mobile processors began to increase explosively with the progress of chip manufacturing technology. As a result, in most non - high - performance usage scenarios of tablets, there was a situation of over - performance. Meanwhile, the light - weight, thin, and large - battery characteristics of tablets could make up for the deficiencies of laptops in these aspects.

In 2015, Apple equipped the first - generation iPad Pro with a dedicated A9X processor, enabling it to support complex tasks such as image processing and video editing. With the connection of peripherals such as keyboards, it could objectively handle most low - load scenarios of laptops.

At the same time, the iPad product line no longer shared iOS with the iPhone and switched to the dedicated system iPadOS. Professional design software such as Final Cut Pro and Procreate, which focused on touch - screen handwriting, emerged, and third - party software vendors such as Adobe began to optimize their applications specifically for the iPad.

Final Cut Pro that can be directly operated by touch - screen

On the other hand, as the size of mobile phones has been increasing, the positioning of small - sized tablets has become more and more awkward.

The iPhone Max series has reached 6.9 inches, leaving the 7 - inch iPad mini in a difficult position. The emergence of foldable mobile phones with an unfolded screen of 8 - 10 inches has further compressed the status of small - sized tablets. Larger screens have become the main trend in the tablet market.

After 2015, the iPad Pro became the most frequently updated product line of Apple. The 12.9 - inch (later upgraded to 13 inches) version has been iterated seven times, and the 11 - inch version has been iterated five times. Except in 2023 when there were delays, it has hardly missed any updates.

Correspondingly, the price has been rising. The starting price of Apple