Changes in Central China's foreign trade: Will Hubei pose a challenge to Anhui and Henan?
Foreign trade is a "barometer" reflecting the regional economic situation and openness vitality. Especially when the external environment is full of uncertainties, the import and export performance of various regions has attracted much attention.
Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data of 31 provinces in the first half of this year. Many central provinces showed particularly impressive growth rates.
Among them, Anhui's growth rate of 15.2% ranked among the top in the country, and its total import and export value remained the first in Central China. Right behind, Henan's import and export growth rate in the first half of the year reached 26.2%, narrowing the gap with Anhui again.
The competition in foreign trade between Anhui and Henan has lasted for nearly two years, with the "offensive and defensive" positions changing several times. Just when the situation was deadlocked, Hubei quietly joined the game, leading Central China with a growth rate of 28.4%.
In the first half of this year, Anhui, Henan, and Hubei ranked 9th, 10th, and 11th respectively in the country in terms of total import and export volume. Not only were their total volumes close, but their growth rates also showed a good trend of advancing hand in hand.
However, not all central provinces are winners. While Hubei, Henan, and Anhui are competing fiercely, Jiangxi's growth rate was only 0.1%, and Hunan and Shanxi even had negative growth rates of 6.8% and 20.8% respectively.
01 Entanglement between Anhui and Henan
In the first half of this year, Anhui's total foreign trade import and export value reached 458.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. Its import and export scale ranked 9th in the country and 1st in Central China. Henan's total foreign trade import and export value was 412.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, ranking 10th in the country and 2nd in Central China.
Considering that Henan's foreign trade has maintained a strong double-digit growth momentum for six consecutive months, Anhui's position as the number one in foreign trade in Central China seems unstable.
In fact, a few years ago, Henan was the defending side and the undisputed "locomotive" of foreign trade in Central China.
When it comes to Henan's foreign trade, Foxconn has to be mentioned. The two have been deeply bound in recent years. Foxconn settled in Zhengzhou in 2010, and Henan became the province with the largest foreign trade volume in Central China in 2012, holding the top position in Central China for twelve consecutive years. However, as the risks of production capacity transfer and the pressure of market contraction have intensified in recent years, the hidden crisis behind the high dependence has gradually emerged.
For a long time, mobile phone exports have accounted for "half of the country" in Henan's exports. But since 2022, the total value of mobile phone exports has begun to decline rapidly. Public data shows that from 2021 to 2023, the total value of Henan's mobile phone exports dropped from 272.72 billion yuan to 240.62 billion yuan, and the proportion in Henan's total export value also dropped from 54.3% to 45.6%.
This also gave Anhui a chance to catch up.
In the first 11 months of 2023, Anhui led Henan by 2.62 billion yuan and ranked first in Central China in terms of total import and export value. By the end of that year, Henan managed to overtake Anhui and retained its leading position in foreign trade in Central China, although the leading margin was only 557 million yuan.
In 2024, Anhui's foreign trade value was more than 1 billion yuan higher than Henan's almost every month. Throughout 2024, Anhui's import and export grew at a rate of 7.4%, far exceeding Henan's 4.2%. Thus, the title of the province with the largest foreign trade volume in Central China changed hands.
This is not only a change in ranking but also an adjustment of the foreign trade structure. Qin Zunwen, the vice president of the China Urban Economics Association, the secretary-general of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Think Tank Alliance, and a researcher at the Hubei Academy of Social Sciences, believes that for many years, Henan has had a large total foreign trade volume, but it has been overly dependent on Foxconn's OEM production, and the technological content of its products is not high. Relying on the advantages of the Yangtze River Delta, Anhui has undertaken some industrial and technological transfers, and its industrial structure is more "new".
Last year, Anhui's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 407.91 billion yuan, a 13.9% increase, accounting for 70.4% of the total export value. Among them, the export volume of automobiles reached 954,000, ranking first in the country. In the first half of this year, the export value of Anhui's mechanical and electrical products increased by 18.5% again, and the proportion in the province's total exports further increased to 71.9%. Among them, the exports of the "new three items" - lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic products, and electric vehicles - reached 37.13 billion yuan, a 67.8% increase.
But Henan doesn't want to admit defeat.
In the first quarter of this year, Henan's foreign trade increased by 28% year-on-year, ranking third in the country and first among the six central provinces in terms of growth rate, more than twice that of Anhui (13.1%). In the first half of the year, Henan's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 177.72 billion yuan, a 59.8% increase. Among them, the exports of automobiles were 24.41 billion yuan, a 65.7% increase. The exports of the "new three items" reached 14.15 billion yuan, a 152.8% increase. Among them, the exports of electric vehicles were 13.11 billion yuan, a 275.6% increase.
Qin Zunwen said that Henan is undergoing an industrial transformation from the "old three items" to the "new three items", from exporting labor-intensive products to exporting high-value-added products represented by mechanical and electrical products. Although Henan is not along the coast or the Yangtze River, it can continue to explore its potential in terms of airports and China-Europe freight trains and give full play to its geographical advantages.
02 Hubei's Rapid Development
While Henan and Anhui are competing with each other, Hubei has also entered the arena.
In the first half of the year, Hubei's import and export scale reached 402.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%. The gap between Hubei and Henan narrowed to 1.02 billion yuan, and its national ranking rose from 15th last year to 11th, surpassing Tianjin, Liaoning, Guangxi, and Chongqing.
Hubei's rapid development is also positively related to its "new" content. From January to June this year, Hubei's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 148.44 billion yuan, a 26.8% increase. Among them, the exports of computers and their parts, mobile phones, and integrated circuits were 13.8 billion yuan, 13.03 billion yuan, and 11.71 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 19%, 11.8%, and 25.3% respectively. The exports of lithium-ion batteries were 6.66 billion yuan, a 108.7% increase.
"Hubei attaches great importance to the cultivation and development of new-quality productive forces, and the 'new' content of high-tech and high-value-added export products is constantly increasing," said Liu Kai, an associate professor at the School of Business Administration of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law and the secretary-general of the Hubei Free Trade Zone Research Institute.
Expanding the market is Hubei's "second card". In the first half of this year, Hubei's imports and exports with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, ASEAN, the EU, the Middle East, and the least-developed countries increased by 32.6%, 56.3%, 48.2%, 45.2%, and 40% respectively.
As Hubei's largest trading partner, ASEAN cooperates with Hubei, creating a trade scenario of "southern fruits and northern machinery". Every night, the freight area of Ezhou Huahu Airport is brightly lit. Freight flights from Southeast Asia unload fresh fruits such as mangosteens, and then load auto parts produced in Hubei and head back.
Photo source: Ezhou Media Integration Center
Liu Kai believes that the emerging economies in ASEAN have a large demand for Hubei's industrial products and auto parts, and Hubei's demand for ASEAN's characteristic consumer goods and agricultural products is also continuously increasing. The cooperation between ASEAN and Hubei is deepening from commodity trade to technological cooperation, forming an industrial division model of "Chinese technology + Southeast Asian assembly", with the industrial chain and supply chain deeply embedded.
Hubei's "third card" is its hub advantage.
Qin Zunwen said that Hubei has a superior geographical location, but the construction of hubs and transportation facilities was relatively backward before, resulting in the failure to fully utilize its geographical advantages. In recent years, the short - board has been made up, and the potential of Hubei as an inland open high - ground has been rapidly amplified.
Not only the provincial capital, but many cities in Hubei have also become "seaports". For example, Yichang has the advantage of a port and has opened a China - Laos freight train direct to Southeast Asia; Xiangyang has the advantage of a railway hub; Huangshi has built a new port and a comprehensive bonded area. Especially Ezhou, relying on Asia's first professional freight airport, has opened more than 100 routes connecting the world.
Different cities and different transportation modes are forming linkage and inter - modal transport. In Huangshi Comprehensive Bonded Area, goods can reach Ezhou Huahu Airport, 36 kilometers away, by truck. Relying on the airport's "7×24 - hour customs clearance" and 16 transport modes of "air - to - air transfer", goods can reach the world the next day. At Wuhan Yangluo Port, the China - Europe freight train is seamlessly connected with the Yangtze River's golden waterway, constructing a three - dimensional inter - modal transport network between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
On July 21, Hubei International Freight Airlines Co., Ltd. was officially established. As Hubei's first local international freight airline, it will use Huahu International Airport as its main operating base to further help "Made in Hubei" products enter the global market faster.
03 Differentiation in Central China
Compared with the accelerating development of Hubei, Henan, and Anhui, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Shanxi are a bit disappointed.
In the first half of the year, Jiangxi's imports and exports were 221.084 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; Hunan's imports and exports were 262.484 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; Shanxi's import and export scale was relatively small, with imports and exports of 68.51 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year - on - year decrease of 20.8%, ranking last in both Central China and the country in terms of growth rate.
Among them, both Hunan's exports and imports decreased. From January to June this year, Hunan's exports were 160.306 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; imports were 102.178 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.1%.
Since the detailed import and export data of Hunan in the first half of the year have not been released, judging from the performance in the first five months, among Hunan's main export products, mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60%. From January to May, the exports of mechanical and electrical products were 72.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; the exports of high - tech products such as computer and communication technology were 20.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%; in addition, the exports of labor - intensive products such as textile and clothing were 11.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37.0%.
Among the main import products, the imports of bulk commodities were 28.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%; the imports of mechanical and electrical products were 20.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.9%.
Shanxi's negative growth in imports and exports was mainly dragged down by exports. In the first half of this year, Shanxi's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 22.43 billion yuan, a 42.3% decrease, accounting for 64.3% of the province's exports. Among them, the exports of mobile phones were 11.22 billion yuan, a 60.5% decrease; the exports of solar cells were 890 million yuan, a 22.6% decrease.
Jiangxi was affected by the uncertainty of foreign trade, which put pressure on the prices of some industries with a high export proportion.
A relevant person in charge of the Jiangxi Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics previously explained that in the first half of this year, the prices of the metal products industry decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, the prices of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, the prices of the textile industry decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the prices of the rubber and plastic products industry decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. These are all the leading industries in Jiangxi's exports.
It can also be seen that compared with the "new" - oriented development of Hubei, Henan, and Anhui, Jiangxi's exports still rely on traditional industries such as non - ferrous metals.
In Qin Zunwen's view, Jiangxi and Hunan also have some special advantages, but their potential has not been fully exploited.
Jiangxi borders both the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area. In the future, it can fully leverage this advantage to undertake industrial and technological transfers from coastal areas like Anhui. As the forefront of China - Africa cooperation, Hunan has a high - level platform like the China - Africa Economic and